Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan's markets have again failed to break to new highs creating a potential for a double-top pattern.</li>
<li>Trump's policies which target lower interest rates and a weaker dollar will put pressure on Japan's markets as can be seen from the high correlation between the JPY and TPX.</li>
<li>Sectors such as trading companies, autos and semiconductors could see the most pressure under a Trump presidency.</li>
</ul>


Japan's markets have again failed to break to new highs creating a potential for a double-top pattern.
Trump's policies which target lower interest rates and a weaker dollar will put pressure on Japan's markets as can be seen from the high correlation between the JPY and TPX.
Sectors such as trading companies, autos and semiconductors could see the most pressure under a Trump presidency.


Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index with implementation at the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oklo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38840" rel="noopener">Oklo (OKLO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-uranium-vanadium-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43774" rel="noopener">Western Uranium &amp; Vanadium (WUC CN)</a> will be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$486m.</li>
<li>There are only 4 trading days to implementation of the changes and we'd watch out for big moves on stocks that have more than 2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium &amp; Nuclear Components Index with implementation at the close on 31 July.

Oklo (OKLO US) and Western Uranium &amp; Vanadium (WUC CN) will be added to the index. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$486m.
There are only 4 trading days to implementation of the changes and we'd watch out for big moves on stocks that have more than 2x ADV to trade.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$500m Trade

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a> announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ms-ad-insurance-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:631:1" rel="noopener">MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)</a> would sell 14.9mm shares in an offering.</li>
<li>This will get priced today or tomorrow, sold to institutional investors. This is ¥107bn, 4 days of ADV and 1% of shares out. It is not dilutive. </li>
<li>Mitsui &amp; Co has a buyback program with ¥123bn left til end-Sep, when presumably it will reload. Looks easy today, but measuring Mitsui &amp; Co vs Peers is less flattering.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP) announced that MS&amp;AD Insurance (8725 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) would sell 14.9mm shares in an offering.
This will get priced today or tomorrow, sold to institutional investors. This is ¥107bn, 4 days of ADV and 1% of shares out. It is not dilutive. 
Mitsui &amp; Co has a buyback program with ¥123bn left til end-Sep, when presumably it will reload. Looks easy today, but measuring Mitsui &amp; Co vs Peers is less flattering.


Mitsui & Co (8031) - ¥100bn Overnight Equity Offering

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)</a> cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>SMFG had a stake over US$100m in at least 47 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$17bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) cross-shareholding.
SMFG had a stake over US$100m in at least 47 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$17bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


SMFG Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$17bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell, Planning to Speed It Up

<ul>
<li>The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591:1" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)</a> had a stake over US$100m in at least 33 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$16.5bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 33 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of US$16.5bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Tokio Marine Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$18bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

Japan

ITOCHU Corporation is a general trading firm handling textiles, wood, machinery, metals, food, chemicals, construction materials, commodities, and energy related products such as oil and gas. The Company operates around the world. Itochu diversifies by operating in satellite communication and data communication businesses.

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Itochu Corp (8001 JP)

Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

Japan markets have now entered Bear Markets (-20% from peak level) and the JPY continues to strengthen effecting an unwind of carry trades...

David Mudd

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: Two Adds & US$500m Trade

The changes for the Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index will be implemented at the close tomorrow. There is a fair bit to trade on some...

Brian Freitas

Mitsui & Co (8031) - ¥100bn Overnight Equity Offering

MSAD Insurance, SMBC are selling 1.0% of TSO of Mitsui & Co (8031). Small deal at US$670mm and 3.7d of ADV on popular name. There's a buyback to...

Travis Lundy

SMFG Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$17bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell, Planning to Speed It Up

Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) cross-shareholding. SMFG...

Sumeet Singh

Tokio Marine Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$18bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

Tokio Marine today announced that it aims to cut its cross-shareholding to zero by FY2029. It will aim to sell 50% of its holdings worth around...

Sumeet Singh

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