Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The latest commercial census published this Spring shows that Japan's wholesale sector remains more dominant than in many other major economies, partly explaining the low margins in some retail sectors.</li>
<li>Wholesale sales fell 8% between 2016 and 2021, but were still 10% higher than in 2012 due to survey changes over the previous decade.</li>
<li>Consolidation of wholesaling into the hands of larger corporations, with correspondingly higher power within the supply chain, is increasing and opportunities for M&amp;A and margin growth are significant.</li>
</ul>


The latest commercial census published this Spring shows that Japan's wholesale sector remains more dominant than in many other major economies, partly explaining the low margins in some retail sectors.
Wholesale sales fell 8% between 2016 and 2021, but were still 10% higher than in 2012 due to survey changes over the previous decade.
Consolidation of wholesaling into the hands of larger corporations, with correspondingly higher power within the supply chain, is increasing and opportunities for M&amp;A and margin growth are significant.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  EUR STOXX600 -1% as hikes, recession fears, overbought markets sap risk;  US-China Tensions Eases after Blinken China Trip; Ford Chairman Says US still can't Compete with China on EVs</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; Japan likely starts on backfoot US out and European Sell off;  Interest in investing in Japan spreading to start-ups; Uniqlo headwinds-China, China</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nikkei reported that Japanese Retail (Mrs Watanabe) fx traders turned momentum in FX; Watch for when that happens in Equities...</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  EUR STOXX600 -1% as hikes, recession fears, overbought markets sap risk;  US-China Tensions Eases after Blinken China Trip; Ford Chairman Says US still can't Compete with China on EVs
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; Japan likely starts on backfoot US out and European Sell off;  Interest in investing in Japan spreading to start-ups; Uniqlo headwinds-China, China
NUGGET. Nikkei reported that Japanese Retail (Mrs Watanabe) fx traders turned momentum in FX; Watch for when that happens in Equities...


Ohayo Japan| Europe Sells Off; NUGGET: Mrs Watanabe-Now Momentum FX; Watch for Retail Equity Shift

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There were a bunch of rebalances across different index families that were implemented at the close of trading on Friday.</li>
<li>The coming week is quieter though there are a couple of ad hoc rebalances for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Yet another week of inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a> as the number of units outstanding is nearly the highest over the last couple of years.</li>
</ul>


There were a bunch of rebalances across different index families that were implemented at the close of trading on Friday.
The coming week is quieter though there are a couple of ad hoc rebalances for the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX). 
Yet another week of inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) as the number of units outstanding is nearly the highest over the last couple of years.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Itochu, Familymart, PPI (Don Quijote) and their data analytics partners have come together in the first case of cross-retailer ad platform development.</li>
<li>Itochu provides the central relationship that ties these companies together, and other deals are likely given the significant potential for retail media.</li>
<li>The opportunity for brands to market to these retailers’ customers through highly targeted ads will become ever more compelling, delivering new revenue streams for Donki and Familymart.</li>
</ul>


Itochu, Familymart, PPI (Don Quijote) and their data analytics partners have come together in the first case of cross-retailer ad platform development.
Itochu provides the central relationship that ties these companies together, and other deals are likely given the significant potential for retail media.
The opportunity for brands to market to these retailers’ customers through highly targeted ads will become ever more compelling, delivering new revenue streams for Donki and Familymart.


Itochu and Donki Tie on Retail Media to Create Major New Revenue Stream

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

Japan

ITOCHU Corporation is a general trading firm handling textiles, wood, machinery, metals, food, chemicals, construction materials, commodities, and energy related products such as oil and gas. The Company operates around the world. Itochu diversifies by operating in satellite communication and data communication businesses.

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Itochu Corp (8001 JP)

The State of Wholesaling in Japan

Getting a clear overview of Japan's wholesale industry is hard but every five years, Japan does a commercial census. The latest is just out, and we...

Michael Causton

Ohayo Japan| Europe Sells Off; NUGGET: Mrs Watanabe-Now Momentum FX; Watch for Retail Equity Shift

Europe DOWN; US out; NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; Japan likely starts on backfoot US out and European Sell off; Interest in investing in Japan...

Mark Chadwick

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, KOSDAQ150, CPSE/CNXBANK, Kenedix Merger

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Itochu and Donki Tie on Retail Media to Create Major New Revenue Stream

Retail media is just emerging but will become a major source of new revenues for retailers in Japan thanks to their high footfall and customer...

Michael Causton

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

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