Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Today's NBS house price data for November continues to show further deceleration of the house price growth across 70 major cities on a year-on-year basis to +5.1% from  +5.4% in October (+5.7% to +5.5% non-weighted), but the pace of deceleration slowed and the month-on-month growth sustained at +0.3%, overall stronger figures than we forecast.

Today's NBS house price data for November continues to show further deceleration of the house price growth across 70 major cities on a year-on-year basis to +5.1% from  +5.4% in October (+5.7% to +5.5% non-weighted), but the pace of deceleration slowed and the month-on-month growth sustained at +0.3%, overall stronger figures than we forecast. 

China House Price Growth Decelerated Slightly Further Y/​​Y, Sustained M/​M - Today's Data For Nov

Macroeconomics

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just released the key data for November, related to property sales and investments by developers at a national level, showing only a slight deceleration in new home (residential gross floor area) sales growth to +5.4% year-to-date year-on-year, from +5.6% in October and +7.6% in September.  This indicates more resilient sales volumes than broadly expected but in line with what the weekly data for 13 major cities indicated over the last few weeks.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just released the key data for November, related to property sales and investments by developers at a national level, showing only a slight deceleration in new home (residential gross floor area) sales growth to +5.4% year-to-date year-on-year, from +5.6% in October and +7.6% in September.  This indicates more resilient sales volumes than broadly expected but in line with what the weekly data for 13 major cities indicated over the last few weeks. 

Today's China Property And Macro Data: New Home Sales Better Than Expected, Land Sales Accelerate

Against the backdrop of the overall slowdown in the house price growth and new home sales growth in China at the national level, the cities in the North Eastern region, not long ago considered some of the weakest markets, now show a very strong relative performance.

Against the backdrop of the overall slowdown in the house price growth and new home sales growth in China at the national level, the cities in the North Eastern region, not long ago considered some of the weakest markets, now show a very strong relative performance.

China Housing: How The North Eastern Region Is Suddenly An Outperformer On Price And Volume Growth

The weekly data on new home sales in select 13 major cities (based on the underlying data from SouFun-CREIS) for the week ending November 26, shows further signs of stabilization in new home sales (Gross Floor Area) with a less negative 4-week y/y decline of -22% (improving from over -40% in early October) and stabilizing YTD y/y decline at -26% (similar over the past weeks). By another measure, the volumes in the 4 weeks to November 26 are only 5% below the average of the 4-week periods over…

The weekly data on new home sales in select 13 major cities (based on the underlying data from SouFun-CREIS) for the week ending November 26, shows further signs of stabilization in new home sales (Gross Floor Area) with a less negative 4-week y/y decline of -22% (improving from over -40% in early October) and stabilizing YTD y/y decline at -26% (similar over the past weeks). By another measure, the volumes in the 4 weeks to November 26 are only 5% below the average of the 4-week periods over…

China Weekly Property Sales Data (13 Cities To November 26) - Signs Of Stabilization

In this series of notes, we reveal some interesting patterns (or lack thereof) we find among the key indicators for the China's housing markets (house prices, sales volumes, land sales) and their relationship to the overall stock market and Chinese developers stocks. Part 3 focuses on the key housing market indicators and the developer stock prices.

In this series of notes, we reveal some interesting patterns (or lack thereof) we find among the key indicators for the China's housing markets (house prices, sales volumes, land sales) and their relationship to the overall stock market and Chinese developers stocks. Part 3 focuses on the key housing market indicators and the developer stock prices. 

In Pursuit Of Patterns (Part 3): Housing Market Indicators Vs Developer Stock Prices

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. is a property development company.  The Company develops residential properties in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Shenyang, Nanjing, and other big cities in China.

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China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)

China House Price Growth Decelerated Slightly Further Y/Y, Sustained M/M - Today's Data For Nov

Today's NBS house price data for November continues to show further deceleration of the house price growth across 70 major cities on a year-on-year...

Robert Ciemniak

Today's China Property And Macro Data: New Home Sales Better Than Expected, Land Sales Accelerate

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just released the key data for November, related to property sales and investments by developers at a...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: How The North Eastern Region Is Suddenly An Outperformer On Price And Volume Growth

Against the backdrop of the overall slowdown in the house price growth and new home sales growth in China at the national level, the cities in the...

Robert Ciemniak

China Weekly Property Sales Data (13 Cities To November 26) - Signs Of Stabilization

The weekly data on new home sales in select 13 major cities (based on the underlying data from SouFun-CREIS) for the week ending November 26, shows...

Robert Ciemniak

In Pursuit Of Patterns (Part 3): Housing Market Indicators Vs Developer Stock Prices

In this series of notes, we reveal some interesting patterns (or lack thereof) we find among the key indicators for the China's housing markets...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China House Price Growth Decelerated Slightly Further Y/​​Y, Sustained M/​M - Today's Data For Nov

Today's NBS house price data for November continues to show further deceleration of the house price growth across 70 major cities on a year-on-year...

Robert Ciemniak

Today's China Property And Macro Data: New Home Sales Better Than Expected, Land Sales Accelerate

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just released the key data for November, related to property sales and investments by developers at a...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: How The North Eastern Region Is Suddenly An Outperformer On Price And Volume Growth

Against the backdrop of the overall slowdown in the house price growth and new home sales growth in China at the national level, the cities in the...

Robert Ciemniak

China Weekly Property Sales Data (13 Cities To November 26) - Signs Of Stabilization

The weekly data on new home sales in select 13 major cities (based on the underlying data from SouFun-CREIS) for the week ending November 26, shows...

Robert Ciemniak

In Pursuit Of Patterns (Part 3): Housing Market Indicators Vs Developer Stock Prices

In this series of notes, we reveal some interesting patterns (or lack thereof) we find among the key indicators for the China's housing markets...

Robert Ciemniak

China House Price Growth Decelerated Slightly Further Y/Y, Sustained M/M - Today's Data For Nov