Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The May data was weak, though the 12-month Y/Y metrics keep showing improvements, "less negative"; everyone expects more stimulus, a big question is its scope and the extent</li>
<li>The indicators for land sales/acquisitions improved, though, on most metrics in May</li>
<li>May was the third month in a row with a downward revision to some 2022 data</li>
</ul>


The May data was weak, though the 12-month Y/Y metrics keep showing improvements, "less negative"; everyone expects more stimulus, a big question is its scope and the extent
The indicators for land sales/acquisitions improved, though, on most metrics in May
May was the third month in a row with a downward revision to some 2022 data


China Property - Today's Macro Property Data (NBS) For May

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 116.5% as of Jun 2nd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.0ppt week on week, led by communication services, financials, industrials and offset by consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Conch Cement, China Vanke, China Southern, CSC Financial, COSCO Ship, China Longyuan.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 116.5% as of Jun 2nd.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.0ppt week on week, led by communication services, financials, industrials and offset by consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Conch Cement, China Vanke, China Southern, CSC Financial, COSCO Ship, China Longyuan.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 2nd): Conch Cement, China Vanke, China Southern, CSC Financial, COSCO Ship

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.6% as of May 12th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.4ppt week on week, led by real estate, financials, utilities and offset by consumer staples, consumer discretionary, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CCB, BoC, China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, CHina Life.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.6% as of May 12th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.4ppt week on week, led by real estate, financials, utilities and offset by consumer staples, consumer discretionary, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CCB, BoC, China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, CHina Life.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 12th): CCB, BoC, China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, CHina Life

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5225:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the close 2 June.</li>
<li>Using prices from the close on 12 May, estimated one-way turnover is 2.1% leading to a one-way trade of HK$1.3bn (US$170m).</li>
<li>The change will lead to an increase in the fair value of the HSCEI 2023 Dividend Futures. We'd be sellers on a move higher towards 240 DIPS.</li>
</ul>


As expected, China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK) replaces Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close 2 June.
Using prices from the close on 12 May, estimated one-way turnover is 2.1% leading to a one-way trade of HK$1.3bn (US$170m).
The change will lead to an increase in the fair value of the HSCEI 2023 Dividend Futures. We'd be sellers on a move higher towards 240 DIPS.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: China Shenhua (1088 HK) Replaces Country Garden (2007 HK); Div Impact

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.2% as of May 5th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.3ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, communication services, health care and offset by real estate, energy, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CCB, BOC, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CMOC, CRRC, China Southern Airlines, CSC Financials.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.2% as of May 5th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.3ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, communication services, health care and offset by real estate, energy, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CCB, BOC, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CMOC, CRRC, China Southern Airlines, CSC Financials.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 5th): CCB, BOC, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CMOC, CRRC, China Southern Airlines

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. is a property development company.  The Company develops residential properties in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Shenyang, Nanjing, and other big cities in China.

Price Gauge
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China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)

China Property - Today's Macro Property Data (NBS) For May

China released the official macro-property data today. We dissect the key metrics and read out the data, addressing the key data caveats.

Robert Ciemniak

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 2nd): Conch Cement, China Vanke, China Southern, CSC Financial, COSCO Ship

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Conch Cement, China Vanke, China Southern, CSC Financial,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (May 12th): CCB, BoC, China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, CHina Life

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for CCB, BoC, China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy, CHina Life.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCEI Index Rebalance: China Shenhua (1088 HK) Replaces Country Garden (2007 HK); Div Impact

China Shenhua replaces Country Garden in June. Impact on the stocks is between 0.7-1.3x ADV. Small change on other stocks. Watch out for moves in...

Brian Freitas

A-H Premium Weekly (May 5th): CCB, BOC, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CMOC, CRRC, China Southern Airlines

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for CCB, BOC, Sinopec, China Shenhua, CMOC, CRRC, China Southern...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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