Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.</li>
<li>We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level</li>
</ul>


Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.
We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).
While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level


MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the recent COVID-19 stats including cases, deaths, and recovery/death rates.</li>
<li>In addition, we analyze the easing of travel restrictions among major Asian countries including Australia, India, Japan, Singapore, Thailand, and South Korea. </li>
<li>More countries are treating COVID-19 not as a pandemic but as a serious flu. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the recent COVID-19 stats including cases, deaths, and recovery/death rates.
In addition, we analyze the easing of travel restrictions among major Asian countries including Australia, India, Japan, Singapore, Thailand, and South Korea. 
More countries are treating COVID-19 not as a pandemic but as a serious flu. 


A Review of COVID-19 Cases & The Easing of Travel Restrictions in Major Asian Countries

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone. We expect 2022 EBITDA to grow by 78%YoY supported by strong recovery in hotel businesses especially in Maldives and Dubai.We maintain BUY</li>
<li>4Q21 EBITDA reached the highest level since 1Q20 at Bt977m (+113%YoY, +307%QoQ) backed by strong recovery of hotel performance especially in Maldives and Dubai.</li>
<li>The company plans to open39 new hotels with 8,038 rooms by 2025 and 200-250 new food stores of existing brands and JV brands in 2022 which could support earnings momentum</li>
</ul>


Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone. We expect 2022 EBITDA to grow by 78%YoY supported by strong recovery in hotel businesses especially in Maldives and Dubai.We maintain BUY
4Q21 EBITDA reached the highest level since 1Q20 at Bt977m (+113%YoY, +307%QoQ) backed by strong recovery of hotel performance especially in Maldives and Dubai.
The company plans to open39 new hotels with 8,038 rooms by 2025 and 200-250 new food stores of existing brands and JV brands in 2022 which could support earnings momentum


CENTEL: Brighter Outlook in 2022 and Beyond

<ul>
<li>CENTEL reported 3Q21 net loss at Bt803m compared to net loss of Bt897m in 3Q20 and net loss of Bt606m in 2Q21.</li>
<li>3Q21 EBITDA was at Bt240m (+641%YoY, -21%QoQ) mainly eroded by extended lockdown and curfew measures in Thailand.</li>
<li>Trimmed 2021-23E forecast to factor in slower-than-expected recovery of tourists.</li>
</ul>


CENTEL reported 3Q21 net loss at Bt803m compared to net loss of Bt897m in 3Q20 and net loss of Bt606m in 2Q21.
3Q21 EBITDA was at Bt240m (+641%YoY, -21%QoQ) mainly eroded by extended lockdown and curfew measures in Thailand.
Trimmed 2021-23E forecast to factor in slower-than-expected recovery of tourists.


CENTEL: The Seventh Consecutive Quarter Loss in 3Q21

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

As the Thai government announced that they will open the borders in 120 days, a stock that will rally hard is obviously <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a>as it directly links with the number of foreign tourists coming to Thailand. 
When the market fully digests the news that Thailand is fully opened for foreign tourists, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> has underperformed the other tourism names that have benefited from the increasing vaccination in Thailand. 
<div class="content-highlight">
For those who have been patient holding AOT, you shall be rewarded soon. 
For investors who do not have AOT in the portfolio yet, this is the biggest catalyst so far thus please start building a position.
For investors who are short AOT, although one may think that the tourists may not come that soon, the stock will rally much earlier than the tourists coming back to Thailand as the pent-up demand is massive and vaccines are pretty much available around the world. 
</div>

As the Thai government announced that they will open the borders in 120 days, a stock that will rally hard is obviously Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)as it directly links with the number of foreign tourists coming to Thailand. 
When the market fully digests the news that Thailand is fully opened for foreign tourists, Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) has underperformed the other tourism names that have benefited from the increasing vaccination in Thailand. 

For those who have been patient holding AOT, you shall be rewarded soon. 
For investors who do not have AOT in the portfolio yet, this is the biggest catalyst so far thus please start building a position.
For investors who are short AOT, although one may think that the tourists may not come that soon, the stock will rally much earlier than the tourists coming back to Thailand as the pent-up demand is massive and vaccines are pretty much available around the world. 


Airport of Thailand (AOT): 120 Days to Reopening

Thailand

Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited owns and manages hotels and quick service restaurants. The Company operates its hotels under the banner of Centara Hotels & Resorts and franchises western and Japanese quick service restaurants.

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Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB)

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

A Review of COVID-19 Cases & The Easing of Travel Restrictions in Major Asian Countries

We discuss the recent COVID-19 stats including cases, deaths, and recovery/death rates in major Asian countries. More countries are treating COVID...

Douglas Kim

CENTEL: Brighter Outlook in 2022 and Beyond

Analyst meeting came out with a positive tone. We expect 2022 EBITDA to grow by 78%YoY supported by strong recovery in hotel businesses especially...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CENTEL: The Seventh Consecutive Quarter Loss in 3Q21

We maintain BUY rating and roll-over our TP to Bt43 (+23% from previous TP) based on DCF method (WACC of 10% and terminal growth of 2%), implying...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Airport of Thailand (AOT): 120 Days to Reopening

As the Thai govt announced that they will open the borders in 120 days, the Airports of Thailand share will rally hard as it directly links with...

Henry Soediarko

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