Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Advantest shares are down 19% from their Jan 4th high after a post earnings rally on Friday. </li>
<li>While order momentum remains strong it has moderated slightly since 2Q and longer-term risks are a concern. </li>
<li>What remains to be seen is how sustainable Chinese demand is given its steady rise since 2016.</li>
</ul>


Advantest shares are down 19% from their Jan 4th high after a post earnings rally on Friday. 
While order momentum remains strong it has moderated slightly since 2Q and longer-term risks are a concern. 
What remains to be seen is how sustainable Chinese demand is given its steady rise since 2016.


Advantest – Upside and Downside Scenarios

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

<ul>
<li>New orders dropped back QoQ in 3Q, but were up 43% YoY and 1.2x greater than sales. The order backlog hit another record high.</li>
<li>FY Mar-22 sales and profit guidance was raised for the third time. Further growth seems likely next fiscal year.</li>
<li>The share price has dropped to the bottom of its recent trading range. We expect a short-term rebound while the market assesses longer-term risks.</li>
</ul>


New orders dropped back QoQ in 3Q, but were up 43% YoY and 1.2x greater than sales. The order backlog hit another record high.
FY Mar-22 sales and profit guidance was raised for the third time. Further growth seems likely next fiscal year.
The share price has dropped to the bottom of its recent trading range. We expect a short-term rebound while the market assesses longer-term risks.


Advantest (6857 JP): 3Q Results Point to Further Growth in 2022

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>On our next Webinar, we are thrilled to welcome back Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/scott-foster" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1134" rel="noopener">Scott Foster</a>, who will present his hand-picked ideas in Japan's IT sector. </p>
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<h3>The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 27 October 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.</h3>
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<h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=85198859426" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2>
</div>
</div>
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<p>Scott Foster is a securities analyst who has been covering electronics, precision equipment &amp; robotics, engineering, construction, transport, and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea.</p>
</div>
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On our next Webinar, we are thrilled to welcome back Insight Provider Scott Foster, who will present his hand-picked ideas in Japan's IT sector. 

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 27 October 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Register for the Webinar here




Scott Foster is a securities analyst who has been covering electronics, precision equipment &amp; robotics, engineering, construction, transport, and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea.



Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27739:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-solar-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:318:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology and Materials sectors while decreasing in the Financials and Communication Services sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11028:1" rel="noopener">Toto Ltd (5332 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano Inc (7309 JP)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-building-fund-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1900:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">freee (4478 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nisshinbo-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10561:1" rel="noopener">Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Information Technology, Industrials and Health Care sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-display-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7145:1" rel="noopener">LG Display (034220 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hmm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13494:1" rel="noopener">HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20854:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ncsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5169:1" rel="noopener">NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-heavy-industries-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7389:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Heavy Industries &amp; Construction (034020 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>In Taiwan, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innolux-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4509:1" rel="noopener">Innolux Corp (3481 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> while shorts covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wan-hai-lines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14262:1" rel="noopener">Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15350:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement (1102 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ta-chen-stainless-pipe-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2519:1" rel="noopener">TA Chen Stainless Pipe (2027 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), JD Health (6618 HK) and CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK) while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), BYD (1211 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) and Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK). Shorts increased in the Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology and Materials sectors while decreasing in the Financials and Communication Services sectors.In Japan, stocks increased on Renesas Electronics (6723 JP), Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP), Advantest Corp (6857 JP), Toto Ltd (5332 JP) and Shimano Inc (7309 JP) while there was short covering on Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP), Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP), freee (4478 JP), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) and Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP). Shorts increased in the Information Technology, Industrials and Health Care sectors.In Korea, shorts increased on Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), LG Display (034220 KS), HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS) and Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) while shorts were covered on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS), Doosan Heavy Industries &amp; Construction (034020 KS), LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) and Kakao Corp (035720 KS). In Taiwan, shorts increased on Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), Innolux Corp (3481 TT), Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) and TSMC (2330 TT) while shorts covered on Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT), Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), Asia Cement (1102 TT), Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and TA Chen Stainless Pipe (2027 TT).

Asia Shorts: Shenzhou, Xiaomi, BABA, BYD, Renesas, Shionogi, Freee, Celltrion, LGD, Novatek, Wan Hai

<p>Advantest's 1Q results were very strong, with sales up 45.5%, operating profit up 94.1% and net profit up 83.4% year-on-year. New orders were up 2.6x, resulting in a Book-to-Bill ratio of 1.7x.</p><p>Orders, sales and profit guidance were raised by double-digits. Management now expects operating profit to rise by more than 40% in FY Mar-22. Previous guidance was for an increase of 20%. </p><p>Quarterly orders may have peaked, but demand drivers for semiconductor test equipment - smartphone, high performance computing, automotive and industrial - should remain strong as the semiconductor shortage is overcome and intense competition between semiconductor producing countries continues.</p><p>As Jim Handy wrote in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/may-semiconductor-revenues-break-a-record-once-again" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54199" rel="noopener">May Semiconductor Revenues Break a Record Once Again</a> : <em>The SIA has released May semiconductor revenue statistics and the month broke all records for both revenues and unit shipments.  This is a continuation of the trend that this analyst has been reporting on since this time last year.  It appears that there is still plenty of strength in this market to allow further records to be broken.</em></p><p>We maintain our ¥12,000 share price target for Advantest, which indicates upside potential of 23%. Plans for a 5.1% share buy-back and a lagging performance vs. other top Japanese semiconductor equipment stocks support our bullish view.</p>

Advantest's 1Q results were very strong, with sales up 45.5%, operating profit up 94.1% and net profit up 83.4% year-on-year. New orders were up 2.6x, resulting in a Book-to-Bill ratio of 1.7x.Orders, sales and profit guidance were raised by double-digits. Management now expects operating profit to rise by more than 40% in FY Mar-22. Previous guidance was for an increase of 20%. Quarterly orders may have peaked, but demand drivers for semiconductor test equipment - smartphone, high performance computing, automotive and industrial - should remain strong as the semiconductor shortage is overcome and intense competition between semiconductor producing countries continues.As Jim Handy wrote in May Semiconductor Revenues Break a Record Once Again : The SIA has released May semiconductor revenue statistics and the month broke all records for both revenues and unit shipments.  This is a continuation of the trend that this analyst has been reporting on since this time last year.  It appears that there is still plenty of strength in this market to allow further records to be broken.We maintain our ¥12,000 share price target for Advantest, which indicates upside potential of 23%. Plans for a 5.1% share buy-back and a lagging performance vs. other top Japanese semiconductor equipment stocks support our bullish view.

Advantest (6857 JP): Very Strong 1Q, Guidance Raised

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

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Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

Advantest – Upside and Downside Scenarios

While Advantest's order momentum remains strong it has moderated slightly since 2Q and longer-term risks are a concern as Chinese demand which has...

Mio Kato

Advantest (6857 JP): 3Q Results Point to Further Growth in 2022

Order backlog hit another record high in 3Q as the share price dropped to the bottom of its trading range. FY Mar-22 guidance raised again and...

Scott Foster

Smartkarma Webinar | Japan IT Picks

Join us for a session with Insight Provider Scott Foster, who will present his hand-picked ideas in Japan's IT sector.

Smartkarma Research

Asia Shorts: Shenzhou, Xiaomi, BABA, BYD, Renesas, Shionogi, Freee, Celltrion, LGD, Novatek, Wan Hai

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

Advantest (6857 JP): Very Strong 1Q, Guidance Raised

Very strong 1Q results with a Book-to-Bill ratio of 1.7x led to a significant upward revision to FY Mar-22 guidance. Semiconductor test equipment...

Scott Foster

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