Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Trip.com reported a strong set of Q4 and FY23 earnings results last week</li>
<li>Company has held the line on SG&amp;A expenses; look for strong H124 growth</li>
<li>We believe shares are cheap and recommend investors buy below US$43/ADS</li>
</ul>


Trip.com reported a strong set of Q4 and FY23 earnings results last week
Company has held the line on SG&amp;A expenses; look for strong H124 growth
We believe shares are cheap and recommend investors buy below US$43/ADS


Trip.com Q4 Quick Take: Strong Top-Line Growth | Impressive Expense Control | And Not Expensive

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>The main businesses, hotel and air ticket bookings increased by 131% YoY and 86% YoY in 4Q23.</li>
<li>The Chinese traveling market continued its recovery after the lift of the lockdown at the end of 2022.</li>
<li>The stock price is close to our last price target - Downgrade to Hold.</li>
</ul>


The main businesses, hotel and air ticket bookings increased by 131% YoY and 86% YoY in 4Q23.
The Chinese traveling market continued its recovery after the lift of the lockdown at the end of 2022.
The stock price is close to our last price target - Downgrade to Hold.


Trip.com (9961 HK, TCOM US): 4Q23, Revenue Up by 105%, But Reached Our Last Price Target

<ul>
<li>Overseas traveling revenue recovered strongly in China during the Chinese New Year.</li>
<li>Great Wall Motor’s vehicle deliveries increased by 69% in January 2024.</li>
<li>JD.com plans to raise the salaries for customer service employees by 30% in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Overseas traveling revenue recovered strongly in China during the Chinese New Year.
Great Wall Motor’s vehicle deliveries increased by 69% in January 2024.
JD.com plans to raise the salaries for customer service employees by 30% in 2024.


China Consumption Weekly (19 Feb 2024): Ant Group, Great Wall Motor, JD.com, Baidu, Autohome

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> approved AGM agenda items late last week to enable the two Capitalisation Issues and Naspers' Share Consolidation to move forward.</li>
<li>What Will Happen: Prosus will issue new N shares to its shareholders and Naspers will reject them. Naspers will issue new shares to its shareholders, and Prosus will reject them.</li>
<li>Naspers will own ~42.9% of Prosus, Prosus will own 0.02% of Naspers. Sales of Tencent shares will continue. Share Buybacks too. But the ouroboros will have spit out its tail. </li>
</ul>


Shareholders of Prosus NV (PRX NA) and Naspers (NPN SJ) approved AGM agenda items late last week to enable the two Capitalisation Issues and Naspers' Share Consolidation to move forward.
What Will Happen: Prosus will issue new N shares to its shareholders and Naspers will reject them. Naspers will issue new shares to its shareholders, and Prosus will reject them.
Naspers will own ~42.9% of Prosus, Prosus will own 0.02% of Naspers. Sales of Tencent shares will continue. Share Buybacks too. But the ouroboros will have spit out its tail. 


Prosus/Naspers - The ουροβóρος Is Dead! Long Live The Ouroboros!

<ul>
<li>Chinese outbound and domestic air traffic activity improved sharply Y/Y in the January-February LNY travel period, but activity remains far below pre-Covid levels</li>
<li>Given constrained outbound air capacity, we're surprised to see relatively low (65-66%) passenger load factors reported by the leading Chinese airlines during LNY</li>
<li>If planes don't begin to fill up with Chinese tourists soon, we believe some investors may become disappointed in the pace of China's travel recovery </li>
</ul>


Chinese outbound and domestic air traffic activity improved sharply Y/Y in the January-February LNY travel period, but activity remains far below pre-Covid levels
Given constrained outbound air capacity, we're surprised to see relatively low (65-66%) passenger load factors reported by the leading Chinese airlines during LNY
If planes don't begin to fill up with Chinese tourists soon, we believe some investors may become disappointed in the pace of China's travel recovery 


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: LNY Traffic Points to Slow Recovery in 2023

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Trip.com Q4 Quick Take: Strong Top-Line Growth | Impressive Expense Control | And Not Expensive

Trip.com reported another strong set of quarterly results last week that featured strong top-line growth and admirable expense control. We suggest...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com (9961 HK, TCOM US): 4Q23, Revenue Up by 105%, But Reached Our Last Price Target

The main businesses, hotel and air ticket bookings increased by 131% YoY and 86% YoY in 4Q23. The Chinese traveling market continued its recovery...

Ming Lu

China Consumption Weekly (19 Feb 2024): Ant Group, Great Wall Motor, JD.com, Baidu, Autohome

Overseas traveling recovered strongly during the Chinese New Year. Great Wall Motor’s vehicle deliveries increased by 69% in Jan 2024. JD.com plans...

Ming Lu

Prosus/Naspers - The ουροβóρος Is Dead! Long Live The Ouroboros!

The Prosus/Naspers Ouroboros is Dead. Long live the Prosus/Naspers Ouroboros. Prosus is an Accretion Engine. Know it. Use it.

Travis Lundy

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: LNY Traffic Points to Slow Recovery in 2023

Jan-Feb air traffic shows the beginnings of a recovery in Chinese travel activity, but we're surprised to see outbound flights with load factors of...

Tracking Traffic

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