Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

Ctrip.com subsidiary Qunar Cayman Islands $QUNR announced on June 23rd it had received a preliminary offer from private equity firm Ocean Management Ltd. to go private at $30.39 per ADR, a 15% premium to Wednesday's close. The ADRs quickly traded up to within 5% of the offer price.The preliminary offer is for all shares not owned by a significant shareholder. Based on the wording of the initial offer letter, it appears that Ocean Management's initial focus is obtaining the ~55% of Qunar shares N…

Ctrip.com subsidiary Qunar Cayman Islands $QUNR announced on June 23rd it had received a preliminary offer from private equity firm Ocean Management Ltd. to go private at $30.39 per ADR, a 15% premium to Wednesday's close. The ADRs quickly traded up to within 5% of the offer price.The preliminary offer is for all shares not owned by a significant shareholder. Based on the wording of the initial offer letter, it appears that Ocean Management's initial focus is obtaining the ~55% of Qunar shares N…

Go-Private Offer for Qunar Might Give Ctrip.com an Exit Strategy

Air China (753:HK) and its main domestic rivals have reported operating statistics for May, and the numbers are mostly solid, in our view. Overall traffic at Air China, measured in RPKs, increased by 8% YoY in May. As has been the case for many months, International traffic (+10% YoY) led the way, though Domestic traffic was also solid (+7% YoY). With demand growth largely in-line with capacity expansion, passenger load factor remained solid at 77.9% in May.Notably, Air China's International…

Air China (753:HK) and its main domestic rivals have reported operating statistics for May, and the numbers are mostly solid, in our view. Overall traffic at Air China, measured in RPKs, increased by 8% YoY in May. As has been the case for many months, International traffic (+10% YoY) led the way, though Domestic traffic was also solid (+7% YoY). With demand growth largely in-line with capacity expansion, passenger load factor remained solid at 77.9% in May.Notably, Air China's International…

Air China May Traffic Figures Remain Solid

After a review of Q1 results, we retain our negative view of Ctrip's medium-term fundamentals.Ctrip's IR team did not respond to multiple requests for more information on +318 mn rmb in 'other income' (non-operating) on Q1's income statement, nor did management address the item in their conference call Wednesday evening. None of the banks' analysts who had a chance to ask questions during the call brought the item up, either. And as far as we can tell, management did not previously flag an item…

After a review of Q1 results, we retain our negative view of Ctrip's medium-term fundamentals.Ctrip's IR team did not respond to multiple requests for more information on +318 mn rmb in 'other income' (non-operating) on Q1's income statement, nor did management address the item in their conference call Wednesday evening. None of the banks' analysts who had a chance to ask questions during the call brought the item up, either. And as far as we can tell, management did not previously flag an item…

More Thoughts on Ctrip.com Q1; Remain Short

Ctrip's Q1 results are the first to fully consolidate results from Qunar (QUNR), which also reported today after the close in New York. Ctrip's Q1 Net Revenues appear in-line with expectations, and after adjusting for non-cash items, it still appears Income from Operations was essentially zero (but in-line with lowered expectations).The Net result (loss of 3.49 rmb per ADS) was slightly better than consensus (-3.62 rmb per ADS) but includes 318 mn rmb in 'other', non-operating income; without…

Ctrip's Q1 results are the first to fully consolidate results from Qunar (QUNR), which also reported today after the close in New York. Ctrip's Q1 Net Revenues appear in-line with expectations, and after adjusting for non-cash items, it still appears Income from Operations was essentially zero (but in-line with lowered expectations).The Net result (loss of 3.49 rmb per ADS) was slightly better than consensus (-3.62 rmb per ADS) but includes 318 mn rmb in 'other', non-operating income; without…

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Following a ‘risk-on’ rally early in the early part of last week global stocks dropped going into Friday on concerns that a series of key events later this month may stress the global economy and financial markets.At the center of these concerns is the uncertainty surrounding the potential for the UK to exit the European Union (Brexit). On June 23rd voters will decide whether Britain will leave or remain in the European Union. Concerns over a possible Brexit surged on Friday following the release of a poll from the Independent showing increasing support for a Brexit, with 55% vote to ‘leave’ against a 45% vote to ‘remain’.Further fueling uncertainty is the US Feds upcoming FOMC meeting set to take place on June 15th. While the Fed is not expected to hike rates in June (the implied probability of a June rate hike is currently just 2%) , investors are very concerned that a surprise hike could trigger volatility across global financial markets.Our proprietary indicators continue to indicate the global economy is strong enough to withstand a potential shock stemming from a surprise rate hike in the US or a Brexit.

Following a ‘risk-on’ rally early in the early part of last week global stocks dropped going into Friday on concerns that a series of key events later this month may stress the global economy and financial markets.At the center of these concerns is the uncertainty surrounding the potential for the UK to exit the European Union (Brexit). On June 23rd voters will decide whether Britain will leave or remain in the European Union. Concerns over a possible Brexit surged on Friday following the release of a poll from the Independent showing increasing support for a Brexit, with 55% vote to ‘leave’ against a 45% vote to ‘remain’.Further fueling uncertainty is the US Feds upcoming FOMC meeting set to take place on June 15th. While the Fed is not expected to hike rates in June (the implied probability of a June rate hike is currently just 2%) , investors are very concerned that a surprise hike could trigger volatility across global financial markets.Our proprietary indicators continue to indicate the global economy is strong enough to withstand a potential shock stemming from a surprise rate hike in the US or a Brexit.

Anxiety Over Brexit Surges While Key Economic Data Continue to Improve

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Trip.com (TCOM US)

Go-Private Offer for Qunar Might Give Ctrip.com an Exit Strategy

Ctrip.com subsidiary Qunar Cayman Islands $QUNR announced on June 23rd it had received a preliminary offer from private equity firm Ocean...

Daniel Hellberg

Air China May Traffic Figures Remain Solid

Air China (753:HK) and its main domestic rivals have reported operating statistics for May, and the numbers are mostly solid, in our view. Overall...

Daniel Hellberg

More Thoughts on Ctrip.com Q1; Remain Short

After a review of Q1 results, we retain our negative view of Ctrip's medium-term fundamentals.Ctrip's IR team did not respond to multiple requests...

Daniel Hellberg

Update on Ctrip.com Post Q1 Results

Ctrip's Q1 results are the first to fully consolidate results from Qunar (QUNR), which also reported today after the close in New York. Ctrip's Q1...

Daniel Hellberg

Anxiety Over Brexit Surges While Key Economic Data Continue to Improve

Following a ‘risk-on’ rally early in the early part of last week global stocks dropped going into Friday on concerns that a series of key events...

David Riedel

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)