MD, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Gu Jun, CFA

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Focus Media Information Technology Co, Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

Focus Media Information Technology Co, Ltd.

Promising 2018, raise TP to RMB 14.3● China’s non-internet ads spending shows strong recoveries in 2H17, which in our view is the response to increasing expensive online user acquisition cost.● In 2018, Focus Media plans further to expand media coverages in low-tier cities, which is the next growth opportunity, raising TP to RMB 14.3● We estimate that 4Q17’s total revenue and net profit would reach RMB 3.2 bn/1.65 bn, respectively, in line with company’s guidance.Offline ads spending saw strong…

Promising 2018, raise TP to RMB 14.3● China’s non-internet ads spending shows strong recoveries in 2H17, which in our view is the response to increasing expensive online user acquisition cost.● In 2018, Focus Media plans further to expand media coverages in low-tier cities, which is the next growth opportunity, raising TP to RMB 14.3● We estimate that 4Q17’s total revenue and net profit would reach RMB 3.2 bn/1.65 bn, respectively, in line with company’s guidance.Offline ads spending saw strong…

Focus Media (SZSE:002027) Promising 2018, Raise TP to RMB 14.3

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>It’s rather ironic that value fund GMO, which has been relentlessly underperforming and losing AUM, should now be grabbing headlines for ‘melt up’ scenarios</li>
<li>Bond market volatility is exceeding equity as markets begin second guessing the ECB/BoJ exit path and chartists draw lines through the generational 10-yr Treasury secular downtrend.</li>
<li>With N. Korea receding as a near-term alibi for inaction, the Trump administration seems likely to risk a trade confrontation with China on steel/solar etc. within…</li>
</ul>


It’s rather ironic that value fund GMO, which has been relentlessly underperforming and losing AUM, should now be grabbing headlines for ‘melt up’ scenarios
Bond market volatility is exceeding equity as markets begin second guessing the ECB/BoJ exit path and chartists draw lines through the generational 10-yr Treasury secular downtrend.
With N. Korea receding as a near-term alibi for inaction, the Trump administration seems likely to risk a trade confrontation with China on steel/solar etc. within…


Bears Become Endangered Species, as Tech Faces Zeitgeist Shift…

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

● We believe there is an increasing likelihood that the fallout in cash loan sector might spread to consumer finance. What might be at risk is Ant Financial’s (Ant Fin) balance sheet deleveraging;● Deleveraging will impact Alibaba’s GMV growth in 2018. It might also hurt Baidu’s near-term outlook. We cut BABA, JD and BIDU’s TP’s from US$190, US$55 and US$295 to US$185, US$50 and US$285.Regulators might require Ant Fin to put up more capitalThe December 1st regulation on the cash loan industry…

● We believe there is an increasing likelihood that the fallout in cash loan sector might spread to consumer finance. What might be at risk is Ant Financial’s (Ant Fin) balance sheet deleveraging;● Deleveraging will impact Alibaba’s GMV growth in 2018. It might also hurt Baidu’s near-term outlook. We cut BABA, JD and BIDU’s TP’s from US$190, US$55 and US$295 to US$185, US$50 and US$285.Regulators might require Ant Fin to put up more capitalThe December 1st regulation on the cash loan industry…

Consumer Finance Deleveraging Clouds 2018 Outlook

<ul>
<li>Last month saw a spate of key auto sector news flow, from Honda and SenseTime collaborating on self-driving to BMW acquiring a solid state battery start-up and Toyota overhauling its EV strategy.</li>
<li>The lines between the technology and auto component sectors continue to blur, and will further as solid state/MEMS Lidar and AI software using vision sensors become key AV enabling technologies.</li>
<li>Previously mundane stocks in the vanguard such as Sunny Optical or Nexteer in HK featured in the AV stock…</li>
</ul>


Last month saw a spate of key auto sector news flow, from Honda and SenseTime collaborating on self-driving to BMW acquiring a solid state battery start-up and Toyota overhauling its EV strategy.
The lines between the technology and auto component sectors continue to blur, and will further as solid state/MEMS Lidar and AI software using vision sensors become key AV enabling technologies.
Previously mundane stocks in the vanguard such as Sunny Optical or Nexteer in HK featured in the AV stock…


Electrification/Autonomy Trends Begin Reshaping Global Auto Sector…

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

In late November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/179" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1">Baidu Inc (ADR) (BIDU US)</a> hosted their annual Baidu World (BW) showcase in Beijing (write-up somewhat lost into year-end). This year the focus was on smart home devices, software/OS upgrades and more detail on the timeline for autonomous driving. As in previous years, the technology on display was impressive. However, that does little to allay <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1920" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1920">Kirk Boodry</a>'s concerns over weak core search revenue trends and on the path to AI monetization. Because of these concerns, he remains at…

In late November, Baidu Inc (ADR) (BIDU US) hosted their annual Baidu World (BW) showcase in Beijing (write-up somewhat lost into year-end). This year the focus was on smart home devices, software/OS upgrades and more detail on the timeline for autonomous driving. As in previous years, the technology on display was impressive. However, that does little to allay Kirk Boodry's concerns over weak core search revenue trends and on the path to AI monetization. Because of these concerns, he remains at…

Baidu's Technology Is Impressive but yet to Monetize While the Core Search Business Remains Weak

China

Baidu, Inc. operates an Internet search engine. The Company offers algorithmic search, enterprise search, news, MP3, and image searches, voice assistance, online storage, and navigation services. Baidu serves clients globally.

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Baidu (BIDU US)

Focus Media (SZSE:002027) Promising 2018, Raise TP to RMB 14.3

Promising 2018, raise TP to RMB 14.3● China’s non-internet ads spending shows strong recoveries in 2H17, which in our view is the response to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bears Become Endangered Species, as Tech Faces Zeitgeist Shift…

It’s rather ironic that value fund GMO, which has been relentlessly underperforming and losing AUM, should now be grabbing headlines for ‘melt up’...

Sean Maher

Consumer Finance Deleveraging Clouds 2018 Outlook

● We believe there is an increasing likelihood that the fallout in cash loan sector might spread to consumer finance. What might be at risk is Ant...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Electrification/Autonomy Trends Begin Reshaping Global Auto Sector…

Last month saw a spate of key auto sector news flow, from Honda and SenseTime collaborating on self-driving to BMW acquiring a solid state battery...

Sean Maher

Baidu's Technology Is Impressive but yet to Monetize While the Core Search Business Remains Weak

In late November, Baidu Inc (ADR) (BIDU US) hosted their annual Baidu World (BW) showcase in Beijing (write-up somewhat lost into year-end). This...

New Street Research

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52-week Range

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