Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Yamaha releases new guidance on May 8 for its fiscal year ending March 2025. The  previous Mid-term plan for OP was ¥68bn, while the consensus is looking for just ¥40.9bn.  </li>
<li>We expect ¥50bn, and think the shares are as much as 30% undervalued.</li>
<li>Analysts have responded to multiple downward revisions to current year guidance, driven by collapsing Piano sales to China, but haven’t responded to cost cutting or growth in other product lines.</li>
</ul>


Yamaha releases new guidance on May 8 for its fiscal year ending March 2025. The  previous Mid-term plan for OP was ¥68bn, while the consensus is looking for just ¥40.9bn.  
We expect ¥50bn, and think the shares are as much as 30% undervalued.
Analysts have responded to multiple downward revisions to current year guidance, driven by collapsing Piano sales to China, but haven’t responded to cost cutting or growth in other product lines.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The median stock in our Dogs of Topix basket outperformed the median stock in the Topix 400 by 4% through Sept 2024.</li>
<li>This is below the average of 7% achieved by such stocks over the past 9 years, but it was a much tougher stretch than it looked. </li>
<li>Do we need to re-think? Much can be learned comparing the outperformers, whose median return was +34%, compared to the underperformers, which declined 23%.</li>
</ul>


The median stock in our Dogs of Topix basket outperformed the median stock in the Topix 400 by 4% through Sept 2024.
This is below the average of 7% achieved by such stocks over the past 9 years, but it was a much tougher stretch than it looked. 
Do we need to re-think? Much can be learned comparing the outperformers, whose median return was +34%, compared to the underperformers, which declined 23%.


Have the Rules for Bottom Fishing Changed?

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>China names will be in focus with yesterdays gains holding overnight in the US.</li>
<li>Worth looking at Japanese names previously bucketed as China plays which could now be squeeze targets with large short interests.</li>
<li>The list is long, but some names which could squeeze on the improved sentiment include Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp and Nabtesco.</li>
</ul>


China names will be in focus with yesterdays gains holding overnight in the US.
Worth looking at Japanese names previously bucketed as China plays which could now be squeeze targets with large short interests.
The list is long, but some names which could squeeze on the improved sentiment include Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp and Nabtesco.


Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 15 stocks in Japan that will be sold by passive trackers at the close on 31 May.</li>
<li>Short interest has been increasing in these stocks over the last few months and there will be covering on implementation date.</li>
<li>Cumulative excess volume on all stocks has risen in the last couple of months though the pace of the increase has varied.</li>
</ul>


There are 15 stocks in Japan that will be sold by passive trackers at the close on 31 May.
Short interest has been increasing in these stocks over the last few months and there will be covering on implementation date.
Cumulative excess volume on all stocks has risen in the last couple of months though the pace of the increase has varied.


Japan - Another Big Round of Passive Selling

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>We expect high-end musical instruments to be one of the worse affected among consumer discretionary names during a high inflationary environment.</li>
<li>Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roland-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30727:1" rel="noopener">Roland Corp (7944 JP)</a> says that demand remains strong, the numbers such as revenue and backlog suggest weakening conditions.</li>
<li>In addition, there’s a risk of a recession and it appears that Roland has not made sufficient progress in streamlining operations to maintain profitability in a low revenue environment.</li>
</ul>


We expect high-end musical instruments to be one of the worse affected among consumer discretionary names during a high inflationary environment.
Although Roland Corp (7944 JP) says that demand remains strong, the numbers such as revenue and backlog suggest weakening conditions.
In addition, there’s a risk of a recession and it appears that Roland has not made sufficient progress in streamlining operations to maintain profitability in a low revenue environment.


Japan

YAMAHA CORPORATION mainly manufactures musical instruments, audio equipment, and golf equipment.  The Company also produces information & communication equipment and semiconductors.  Yamaha operates recreation business. The Company has many overseas subsidiaries.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Yamaha Corp (7951 JP)

Yamaha (7951): Making Waves Again

Company has cut 10% of its workforce and demand for most of its products growing rapidly. Stock is 30% under-valued in our view.

Michael Allen

Have the Rules for Bottom Fishing Changed?

Increased passive investing and a rising interest rate environment have made the bottom-fishing game more treacherous, but the rules are still the...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.

Andrew Jackson

Japan - Another Big Round of Passive Selling

The close tomorrow should see huge volumes trade on these stocks. Shorts will be covered and longs will be selectively put on.

Brian Freitas

Roland Corp: Not Tuned For Inflation

We anticipate around 35% downside to Roland shares in the short term as they fall back towards the bottom end of the trend channel with increasing...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Yamaha (7951): Making Waves Again

Company has cut 10% of its workforce and demand for most of its products growing rapidly. Stock is 30% under-valued in our view.

Michael Allen

Have the Rules for Bottom Fishing Changed?

Increased passive investing and a rising interest rate environment have made the bottom-fishing game more treacherous, but the rules are still the...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

​Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.

Andrew Jackson

Japan - Another Big Round of Passive Selling

The close tomorrow should see huge volumes trade on these stocks. Shorts will be covered and longs will be selectively put on.

Brian Freitas

Roland Corp: Not Tuned For Inflation

We anticipate around 35% downside to Roland shares in the short term as they fall back towards the bottom end of the trend channel with increasing...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Investors should keep an eye on potential squeeze targets with large short interests, including Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp, and Nabtesco.