Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<p>Friday after the close of trading and before the long holiday weekend, Ferrovial Services Australia - the bidding party in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21031" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21031">Ferrovial's</a> Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5">Broadspectrum Ltd</a> - <a href="http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160422/pdf/436pvkxt0xwnnt.pdf" target="_blank">announced</a> the Status of Defeating Conditions...</p><div class="content-highlight"><figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/007/481/original/20160423_BRS_SDCs.png?1461406088" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="7481"></figure></div><p> and...</p><p>gave <a href="http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160422/pdf/436pyt3ryc7710.pdf" target="_blank">notice</a> that it had not extended the Offer, and it was scheduled to close at 7pm Sydney time on 2 May 2016.</p><p><strong>That's it, folks. The Offer will not have its 50% condition waived and will not be further extended. </strong></p><p>The most recent update (April 18th pre-open) of the position held by…</p>

Friday after the close of trading and before the long holiday weekend, Ferrovial Services Australia - the bidding party in Ferrovial's Offer for Broadspectrum Ltd - announced the Status of Defeating Conditions... and...gave notice that it had not extended the Offer, and it was scheduled to close at 7pm Sydney time on 2 May 2016.That's it, folks. The Offer will not have its 50% condition waived and will not be further extended. The most recent update (April 18th pre-open) of the position held by…

Broadspectrum:  Mattress Mischief Managed

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong><em>The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for investors.</em></strong></p></div><p><strong><em> </em></strong></p><p>We live in a world where investors are uncertain about asset values both in financial and non-financial companies.  Whilst a lot is written about the nature of bad debts at banks, little has been comprehensively written about the balance sheets of non-financial companies.</p><p>We see the following evidence in our analysis:</p><p> </p><ul><li><div class="content-highlight">The failure of some…</div></li></ul>

The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for investors. We live in a world where investors are uncertain about asset values both in financial and non-financial companies.  Whilst a lot is written about the nature of bad debts at banks, little has been comprehensively written about the balance sheets of non-financial companies.We see the following evidence in our analysis: The failure of some…

<p>It has been a long and tiring battle behind the mattresses for both sides. Ferrovial initially bid $A$1.35/share in a hostile approach last December when Broadspectrum was on its knees at A$0.85/share and Broadspectrum was in danger of not winning a big contract with the Australian Department of Immigration and Border Protection. In fact, the renewal of the contract for Nauru &amp; Manus Island Detention Centre got delayed, and put into competition, Broadspectrum got more contracts, the numbers…</p>

It has been a long and tiring battle behind the mattresses for both sides. Ferrovial initially bid $A$1.35/share in a hostile approach last December when Broadspectrum was on its knees at A$0.85/share and Broadspectrum was in danger of not winning a big contract with the Australian Department of Immigration and Border Protection. In fact, the renewal of the contract for Nauru &amp; Manus Island Detention Centre got delayed, and put into competition, Broadspectrum got more contracts, the numbers…

<h2><strong>Summary points</strong></h2><ul>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>The best the <em>market</em> can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight">
<strong>Financialisation of commodities is a big</strong>…</div></li>
</ul>

Summary points
1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.
Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.
Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.
The best the market can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.

Financialisation of commodities is a big…


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Tuesday 22 March 2016 </p><div><strong>Asia FX action</strong></div><p>To view click on this link:  <strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp</a> </strong>5:15 min.</p><p>We run through trade points in Asia FX.</p><div>
<strong>INR</strong> - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.</div><div>
<strong>KRW</strong> - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…</div>

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link:  http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through trade points in Asia FX.
INR - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.
KRW - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…

Australia

Matrix Composites & Engineering Ltd. is an engineering company. The Company specialises in the design, application and manufacturing of products based on advanced composite materials, engineering plastics and elastomers.

Whitehaven Coal Limited mines and sells metallurgical and thermal coals to the global steel, power generation, and metallurgical industries.

Viva Energy Group Limited markets petroleum products. The Company focuses on making, importing, and delivering the fuels, lubricants, chemicals, and bitumen. Viva Energy Group serves the mining, aviation, and marine industries in Australia.

New Hope Corporation Limited is a thermal coal production company based in Australia. The Company also has interests in logistics and infrastructure operations in Australia as well.

Paladin Energy Ltd operates as a mining company. The Company explores and mines uranium. Paladin Energy serves customers worldwide.

Beach Energy Limited explores for, develops, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company holds interests in exploration and production tenements in Australia, USA, Egypt, Tanzania and Papua New Guinea.

Washington H. Soul Pattinson & Company Limited is an investment holding company. The Company owns shares and properties, coal mining, bulk handling, commercial television licensee, telecommunications carrier, merchant banking, funds management, pharmaceutical retailing, manufacture, processing and marketing of biscuits and cakes.

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)

Stanmore Coal Ltd. explores for coal in Australia. The Company's interests include a portfolio of coal assets within Queensland's Bowen and Surat Basin coal provinces.

Emerald Resources NL is an oil and gas exploration company with exploration activities in the United States and Australia.

Karoon Energy Ltd operates as an exploration company. The Company explores and acquires oil and gas exploration assets. Karoon Energy serves customers worldwide.

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. provides land-based drilling services to major and independent oil and natural gas companies.  The Company conducts drilling operations in Texas, New Mexico, Utah, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and western Canada. Patterson-UTI is also involved in pressure pumping, oil and gas exploration and production, and drilling and completion fluids services.

Tidewater Inc. provides offshore supply vessels and marine support services to the offshore energy exploration, development, and production industry. The Company tows and anchor-handles mobile drilling rigs and equipment, transports supplies and personnel, and supports pipe laying and other offshore construction activities.

Valaris Limited provides offshore contract drilling services. The Company owns, operates, and manages rig fleets and provides drilling services. Valaris serves customers worldwide.

Transocean Ltd. is an offshore drilling contractor.  The Company owns or operates mobile offshore drilling units, inland drilling barges, and other assets utilized in the support of offshore drilling activities worldwide. Transocean specializes in technically demanding segments of the offshore drilling business, including deepwater and harsh environment drilling services.

Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co., Ltd develops, manufactures and sells oil field equipment.  The Company's products include well cementing equipment, well fracturing equipment, and natural gas compression and transportation equipment.

Subsea 7 SA offers oilfield services.  The Company designs, fabricates, builds and installs equipment for the offshore oil industry.  Subsea 7 builds flexible flowlines, risers, umbilicals and other equipment.  The Company operates in the Gulf of Mexico, the Asia Pacific region, the North Sea and the Mediterranean; and offshore Africa, the Middle East, and South America.

China Oilfield Services Limited provides oilfield services. The Company provides geophysical prospecting, drilling, oilfield technology development, and other services. China Oilfield Services also operates transportation businesses.

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. provides contract drilling of oil and gas wells in the Gulf of Mexico and South America. The Company operates land rigs and platform rigs.

Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. provides offshore oil engineering services, including designing, construction, installation, and repair and maintenance services.  The Company's main businesses include oil/gas exploration engineering, subsea pipeline laying, oil/gas field equipment testing and maintenance, as well as pressure container and steel structure manufacturing.

Archrock, Inc. operates as a natural gas contract compression services company. The Company offers natural gas compression and aftermarket services, as well as provides used equipment for oil and gas industry. Archrock serves customers in the United States.

WorleyParsons Limited provides professional services through alliance and integrated service contracts to the energy, resource and complex process industries.  The Company provides its services to industrial sectors such as oil and gas refining, petrochemicals and chemicals, minerals and metals, power and water and industrial and infrastructure.

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WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU)

Broadspectrum: Mattress Mischief Managed

Friday after the close of trading and before the long holiday weekend, Ferrovial Services Australia - the bidding party in Ferrovial's Offer...

Travis Lundy

Beware Impairments in EM and Asia

The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for...

Mark Artherton

Broadspectrum: One Bump & It's Final

It has been a long and tiring battle behind the mattresses for both sides. Ferrovial initially bid $A$1.35/share in a hostile approach last...

Travis Lundy

Oil After 50%: Where Now for Stocks?

Summary points 1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion. Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves...

Mark Artherton

Asia FX Action Points

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through...

Thomas Schroeder

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