Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Outbound continues to improve, March load factor matched pre-Covid level</li>
<li>Appears Chinese tourists are "spreading their wings", travelling farther afield</li>
<li>Trip.com has been best YTD performer in the space; can airlines catch up?</li>
</ul>


Outbound continues to improve, March load factor matched pre-Covid level
Appears Chinese tourists are "spreading their wings", travelling farther afield
Trip.com has been best YTD performer in the space; can airlines catch up?


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Continues, but Some Regional Destinations Lag

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1810 HK: Xiaomi SU7 confirmed order exceeded 60K, monetization means starting to emerge（/）</li>
<li>HTHT US/ATAT US: Orange Crystal Hotel will launch a new version with a goal of reach 750 hotels by 2025, intensifying competition with Atour.（-） </li>
<li>300750 SZ: GAC announced that its in-house all-solid-state batteries will be put into mass production in 2026（/）</li>
</ul>


1810 HK: Xiaomi SU7 confirmed order exceeded 60K, monetization means starting to emerge（/）
HTHT US/ATAT US: Orange Crystal Hotel will launch a new version with a goal of reach 750 hotels by 2025, intensifying competition with Atour.（-） 
300750 SZ: GAC announced that its in-house all-solid-state batteries will be put into mass production in 2026（/）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/HTHT US/ATAT US/300750 SZ/9995 HK

<ul>
<li>Chinese outbound travel demand continued to recover nicely in February</li>
<li>Major airlines' decision to slow capacity rebuild now looks very prudent</li>
<li>But the airlines have underperformed, surprisingly; Buy Trip.com below US$43</li>
</ul>


Chinese outbound travel demand continued to recover nicely in February
Major airlines' decision to slow capacity rebuild now looks very prudent
But the airlines have underperformed, surprisingly; Buy Trip.com below US$43


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Decision to Slow Capacity Rebuild in Mid-2023 Now Looks Prudent

<ul>
<li>300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK: Jan+Feb new energy export data show that wind power is picking up, and inverters has reached inflection point, while lithium batteries and electric vehicles are exchanging prices for volume(+/-/-/-/-)</li>
<li>Huazhu/Atour: Huazhu guided conservative RevPAR outlook for 2024, citing weak business travel demand.（-）</li>
<li>LI/1211 HK/XPEV/NIO: In 2024’s 11th week, BYD continued to accelerate while fell back, yet the overall acceleration of new energy vehicles bodes well for the whole year (/)</li>
</ul>


300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK: Jan+Feb new energy export data show that wind power is picking up, and inverters has reached inflection point, while lithium batteries and electric vehicles are exchanging prices for volume(+/-/-/-/-)
Huazhu/Atour: Huazhu guided conservative RevPAR outlook for 2024, citing weak business travel demand.（-）
LI/1211 HK/XPEV/NIO: In 2024’s 11th week, BYD continued to accelerate while fell back, yet the overall acceleration of new energy vehicles bodes well for the whole year (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK/Huazhu/Atour/XPEV/9926 HK

<ul>
<li>Adjusting for impact of LNY timing, January numbers still seem firm</li>
<li>Headline February / LNY 2024 traffic growth also appears solid</li>
<li>Our thesis remains that tourism recovery takes longer, strongest in H124</li>
</ul>


Adjusting for impact of LNY timing, January numbers still seem firm
Headline February / LNY 2024 traffic growth also appears solid
Our thesis remains that tourism recovery takes longer, strongest in H124


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January & Initial Read On February Both Indicate Solid Growth

China

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

Price Gauge
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Huazhu Group (HTHT US)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Continues, but Some Regional Destinations Lag

The recovery in Chinese outbound tourism demand continued in March, but certain data suggest the pace of growth for some regional destinations is...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/HTHT US/ATAT US/300750 SZ/9995 HK

Xiaomi's SU7 orders exceed 60K, Orange Crystal Hotel aims for 750 locations by 2025, GAC to mass produce all-solid-state batteries by 2026.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Decision to Slow Capacity Rebuild in Mid-2023 Now Looks Prudent

February outbound travel demand continued to recovery nicely, and the major airlines' decision to slow their capacity rebuild in H223 now appears...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK/Huazhu/Atour/XPEV/9926 HK

New energy export data shows wind power growth,inverters at inflection point.BYD accelerates in 11th week,positive outlook for new energy vehicles...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January & Initial Read On February Both Indicate Solid Growth

In January 2024 Chinese travel demand continued to recover, and initial indications are that demand related to the long LNY holiday was also strong.

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Continues, but Some Regional Destinations Lag

The recovery in Chinese outbound tourism demand continued in March, but certain data suggest the pace of growth for some regional destinations is...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/HTHT US/ATAT US/300750 SZ/9995 HK

​Xiaomi's SU7 orders exceed 60K, Orange Crystal Hotel aims for 750 locations by 2025, GAC to mass produce all-solid-state batteries by 2026.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Decision to Slow Capacity Rebuild in Mid-2023 Now Looks Prudent

February outbound travel demand continued to recovery nicely, and the major airlines' decision to slow their capacity rebuild in H223 now appears...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK/Huazhu/Atour/XPEV/9926 HK

​New energy export data shows wind power growth,inverters at inflection point.BYD accelerates in 11th week,positive outlook for new energy vehicles...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January & Initial Read On February Both Indicate Solid Growth

In January 2024 Chinese travel demand continued to recover, and initial indications are that demand related to the long LNY holiday was also strong.

Tracking Traffic

Xiaomi's SU7 orders exceed 60K, Orange Crystal Hotel aims for 750 locations by 2025, GAC to mass produce all-solid-state batteries by 2026.

New energy export data shows wind power growth,inverters at inflection point.BYD accelerates in 11th week,positive outlook for new energy vehicles...