Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. We see global equities as being in a goldilocks scenario where market dynamics and technicals are arguably 100% bullish. Of course, at some point this almost too good to be true scenario is likely to result in a pullback, but for now we see no signs of this rally letting up.  In our December International Strategy, we highlight areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Manufacturing.</p>

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. We see global equities as being in a goldilocks scenario where market dynamics and technicals are arguably 100% bullish. Of course, at some point this almost too good to be true scenario is likely to result in a pullback, but for now we see no signs of this rally letting up.  In our December International Strategy, we highlight areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Manufacturing.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>On Tuesday after the US market close, China's leading online travel agency <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> reported Q320 results. Net Revenue declined 48% YoY, and Adjusted Operating Income fell 50%.</p><p>Trip.com's results were largely in-line with guidance and expectations, but we believe the pace of the company's recovery is lagging that of some peers and the industry as a whole, even after adjusting for Trip.com's relatively high exposure to outbound travel, which has collapsed. Trip.com's revenue guidance for Q420 also suggests the pace of its recovery will continue to disappoint in the near-term. </p><p>We don't see anything to get excited about in Trip.com's Q320 results and Q420 guidance. </p>

On Tuesday after the US market close, China's leading online travel agency Trip.com (TCOM US) reported Q320 results. Net Revenue declined 48% YoY, and Adjusted Operating Income fell 50%.Trip.com's results were largely in-line with guidance and expectations, but we believe the pace of the company's recovery is lagging that of some peers and the industry as a whole, even after adjusting for Trip.com's relatively high exposure to outbound travel, which has collapsed. Trip.com's revenue guidance for Q420 also suggests the pace of its recovery will continue to disappoint in the near-term. We don't see anything to get excited about in Trip.com's Q320 results and Q420 guidance. 

Trip.com Q320 Results Met Guidance, But Q420 Guidance Suggests Very Slow Recovery

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

New Oriental Education & Techn / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-tech-grp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:531:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education (EDU US)</a> raised around US$1.5bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.</p></div><div><p>I have covered the background of the deal in my earlier insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/new-oriental-hong-kong-secondary-might-be-relatively-small" target="_blank" rel="noopener">New Oriental Hong Kong Secondary - Might Be Relatively Small.</a></p></div><div><p>In this note, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and updates over the past week.</p></div>

New Oriental Education (EDU US) raised around US$1.5bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.I have covered the background of the deal in my earlier insight, New Oriental Hong Kong Secondary - Might Be Relatively Small.In this note, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and updates over the past week.

New Oriental Hong Kong Secondary Trading - Largest ADR/HK Listing Premium Yet

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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/547/original/BANNER-TOURISM.png?1604062858" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168547"></figure>
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<p><em>Outbound</em> Chinese travel demand remained weak in September, despite Macau doubling Chinese inbound traffic (again). Activity from China into most regional destinations remained comatose.</p>
<p><em>Domestic</em> Chinese travel demand continued its recovery in September, and one metric even showed a modest YoY improvement. Other measures showed activity still far below year-ago levels. </p>
<p>However, data also show that average domestic air segment length remains depressed, and this suggests consumers remain cautious regarding leisure travel.</p>
<p>We continue to expect only a gradual recovery in tourism and travel demand over the next few months.</p>




Outbound Chinese travel demand remained weak in September, despite Macau doubling Chinese inbound traffic (again). Activity from China into most regional destinations remained comatose.
Domestic Chinese travel demand continued its recovery in September, and one metric even showed a modest YoY improvement. Other measures showed activity still far below year-ago levels. 
However, data also show that average domestic air segment length remains depressed, and this suggests consumers remain cautious regarding leisure travel.
We continue to expect only a gradual recovery in tourism and travel demand over the next few months.

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound: Comatose | Domestic: Fewer, Shorter Trips = New Normal?

GDS Holdings (ADR) / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23649:1" rel="noopener">Gds Holdings (Adr) (GDS US)</a> raised over US$1.6bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.</p></div><div>
<p>I had covered the background of the deal in my previous notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gds-holdings-hong-kong-secondary-hot-sector-needs-the-money" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings Hong Kong Secondary - Hot Sector, Needs the Money</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gds-holdings-hong-kong-secondary-going-big-will-almost-become-net-cash-for-a-while" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings Hong Kong Secondary - Going Big. Will Almost Become Net Cash, for a While</a>.</p>
<p>In this note, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and updates over the past week.</p>
</div><div></div><div><p>We have also covered the stock since its IPO in 2016. Links to our previous coverage of the IPO and prior placements are below:</p></div><div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gds-holdings-ipo-high-market-share-mirage" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings IPO: High Market Share Mirage?</a>, IPO note in Oct 2016</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nasdaq-gds-placement-visible-growth-additional-ping-an-investment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NASDAQ:GDS Placement - Visible Growth, Additional Ping An Investment</a>, US$400m placement in Mar 2019</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gds-placement-accretion-will-take-awhile-to-be-realized-but-deal-dynamics-are-favorable" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GDS Placement - Accretion Will Take Awhile to Be Realized but Deal Dynamics Are Favorable</a>, US$230m placement in Dec 2019</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gds-placement-momentum-is-still-strong-but-don-t-expect-the-same-kind-of-returns" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GDS Placement - Momentum Is Still Strong but Don’t Expect the Same Kind of Returns</a>, US$400m selldown in Jan 2020</li>
</ul>
<p></p>
</div>

Gds Holdings (Adr) (GDS US) raised over US$1.6bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.
I had covered the background of the deal in my previous notes, GDS Holdings Hong Kong Secondary - Hot Sector, Needs the Money and GDS Holdings Hong Kong Secondary - Going Big. Will Almost Become Net Cash, for a While.
In this note, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and updates over the past week.
We have also covered the stock since its IPO in 2016. Links to our previous coverage of the IPO and prior placements are below:


GDS Holdings IPO: High Market Share Mirage?, IPO note in Oct 2016

NASDAQ:GDS Placement - Visible Growth, Additional Ping An Investment, US$400m placement in Mar 2019

GDS Placement - Accretion Will Take Awhile to Be Realized but Deal Dynamics Are Favorable, US$230m placement in Dec 2019

GDS Placement - Momentum Is Still Strong but Don’t Expect the Same Kind of Returns, US$400m selldown in Jan 2020




GDS Holdings HK Secondary Trading- Strong Coverage but No Discount and Volatile Markets Won't Help

China

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

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Huazhu Group (HTHT US)

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. In this report, we...

Vermilion Research

Trip.com Q320 Results Met Guidance, But Q420 Guidance Suggests Very Slow Recovery

Trip.com met Q320 net revenue guidance but offered guidance for Q420 that assumes only modest progress toward recovery in the current period.

Tracking Traffic

New Oriental Hong Kong Secondary Trading - Largest ADR/HK Listing Premium Yet

New Oriental Education (EDU US) raised US$1.5bn in its secondary listing. I have covered the background of the deal in my earlier note. In this...

Sumeet Singh

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Outbound: Comatose | Domestic: Fewer, Shorter Trips = New Normal?

September numbers show almost non-existent outbound travel but a continued gradual recovery in domestic travel demand. Shorter average domestic air...

Tracking Traffic

GDS Holdings HK Secondary Trading- Strong Coverage but No Discount and Volatile Markets Won't Help

Gds Holdings (Adr) (GDS US) raised around US$1.6bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. In this note, I'll talk about the deal dynamics and...

Sumeet Singh

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