Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Companies exude confidence and unanimously explain that AI is the fastest growing revenue segment ever.  AI leads to revenue growth, increase in volume, higher pricing, higher engagement. </li>
<li>Companies also explain that AI today only reflects a small part of long-term planning. AI is a decade long transformation of how we work, search for information or buy products.  </li>
<li>Meta and Microsoft see equipment delays and are capacity constrained in 2024. Capex will increase in 2025. </li>
</ul>


Companies exude confidence and unanimously explain that AI is the fastest growing revenue segment ever.  AI leads to revenue growth, increase in volume, higher pricing, higher engagement. 
Companies also explain that AI today only reflects a small part of long-term planning. AI is a decade long transformation of how we work, search for information or buy products.  
Meta and Microsoft see equipment delays and are capacity constrained in 2024. Capex will increase in 2025. 


Google, Meta, Microsoft: What Did They Say About AI, Capex and Revenues?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>12 ETFs (9 passive and 3 active) and 1 ETN tracking the Korea Value-Up Index will start trading on the KRX on 4 November.</li>
<li>At listing, the combined AUM across the 13 products is KRW 511bn (US$370m). So not a lot of impact on the stocks in the index.</li>
<li>The expectation is that there will be a lot of money that starts to track the index after the ETF listing. Looking at Japan, that is not a success story.</li>
</ul>


12 ETFs (9 passive and 3 active) and 1 ETN tracking the Korea Value-Up Index will start trading on the KRX on 4 November.
At listing, the combined AUM across the 13 products is KRW 511bn (US$370m). So not a lot of impact on the stocks in the index.
The expectation is that there will be a lot of money that starts to track the index after the ETF listing. Looking at Japan, that is not a success story.


Korea Value-Up ETFs: Listing on 4 Nov with US$370m AUM

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Summary: 
<ul>
<li>
TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough.</li>
<li>
LRCX - 25 is a growth year, taking share from Litho.</li>
<li>
MXL - Clear growth off the bottom as telecom rebounds.</li>
<li>
SK Hynix - Memory cycle ain’t over, HBM is strong.</li>
<li>
TER - Apple designed it’s own modem next year.</li>
<li>
BESI - HBM4 is looking continuously questionable if it’s going to be Hybrid Bonding.</li>
</ul>

Summary: 


TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough.

LRCX - 25 is a growth year, taking share from Litho.

MXL - Clear growth off the bottom as telecom rebounds.

SK Hynix - Memory cycle ain’t over, HBM is strong.

TER - Apple designed it’s own modem next year.

BESI - HBM4 is looking continuously questionable if it’s going to be Hybrid Bonding.


Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As interest in the Emerging Markets Ex-China space grows, we have sourced data on 30 actively managed strategies that provide filings for us to analyse.</li>
<li>Combined AUM has gradually increased among all strategies to $1.67bn.  Remains a long behind the $17.6bn AUM of the iShares MSCI EM Ex-China ETF</li>
<li>Developed markets and Argentina O/W.  India, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan U/W.  TSMC universally owned, SK Hynix and Samsung prominent.  POSCO unloved.</li>
</ul>


As interest in the Emerging Markets Ex-China space grows, we have sourced data on 30 actively managed strategies that provide filings for us to analyse.
Combined AUM has gradually increased among all strategies to $1.67bn.  Remains a long behind the $17.6bn AUM of the iShares MSCI EM Ex-China ETF
Developed markets and Argentina O/W.  India, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan U/W.  TSMC universally owned, SK Hynix and Samsung prominent.  POSCO unloved.


EM Ex-China: First Look at Active Positioning

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Oct 25th which has an aggregated holding worth USD520.0bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD442mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Kia.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Oct 25th which has an aggregated holding worth USD520.0bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD442mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Kia.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 25th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Kia

South Korea

SK Hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industry. The Company manufactures semiconductors, such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

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SK Hynix (000660 KS)

Google, Meta, Microsoft: What Did They Say About AI, Capex and Revenues?

Is AI really increasing revenues, profitability? There is still considerable doubt within the investors community on the "reality" of AI, or its...

Nicolas Baratte

Korea Value-Up ETFs: Listing on 4 Nov with US$370m AUM

12 ETFs (9 passive and 3 active) and 1 ETN tracking the Korea Value-Up Index will start trading on the KRX on 4 November. Total assets at launch...

Brian Freitas

Earnings: TXN, LRCX, MXL, SK Hynix, TER, BESI

Summary: TXN - Rebound in almost all end markets, even Automotive in China. Weakness in ROW, but I think it’s trough. LRCX - 25 is a growth...

Fabricated Knowledge

EM Ex-China: First Look at Active Positioning

India becomes key underweight among active Emerging Market Ex-China funds. Argentina, Mexico and Developed Markets strategic overweights.

Steven Holden

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 25th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Kia

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Kia.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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