Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

On the 11th of September, IsZo Capital and other shareholders presented <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nam-tai-property-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29275:1" rel="noopener">Nam Tai Property Inc (NTP US)</a> with certification of ownership above 30% and an official request to call a Shareholder General Meeting as per the bylaws. That started the clock ticking.The next business day, the Nam Tai CEO and Chairman of the Board Mr. Ying Chi Kwok, who happens to be the younger brother of the CEO of largest shareholder <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaisa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:169:1" rel="noopener">Kaisa Group Holdings (1638 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/829365/000156459020043351/ntp-6k_20200914.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">resigned</a> "for personal reasons", effective immediately. A week later, Nam Tai <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/829365/000156459020044137/ntp-6k_20200921.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">named</a> Dr Lai Ling Tam, to the role of Executive Chairman, and Mr Jiabiao Wang as CEO. Both are ex-Kaisa. So much for independence. In my previous insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nam-tai-property-an-interesting-activist-situation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43183" rel="noopener">Nam Tai Property - An Interesting Activist Situation</a> which introduced the activist situation, I concluded by saying... <blockquote>...where the company has just spent a lot of cash last quarter buying the Dongguan asset and now that cash is depleted, there could be a risk of a downturn so the company would need to raise cash by offering shares. A third-party placement to a strong development partner like Kaisa might be engineered. It is often the way of things. It is specifically what the activists and their supporters are trying to make sure does not happen. But they are right to be worried that it might.</blockquote>And so it did. I was trying to be gentle in my wording. It is not clear that I needed to be. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nam-tai-property-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29275:1" rel="noopener">Nam Tai Property Inc (NTP US)</a> on 5 October announced pre-open that it had raised US$170mm through a private placement (PIPE) of common shares to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaisa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:169:1" rel="noopener">Kaisa Group Holdings (1638 HK)</a>.There may be problems with this.  There may not be.More below the fold.

On the 11th of September, IsZo Capital and other shareholders presented Nam Tai Property Inc (NTP US) with certification of ownership above 30% and an official request to call a Shareholder General Meeting as per the bylaws. That started the clock ticking.The next business day, the Nam Tai CEO and Chairman of the Board Mr. Ying Chi Kwok, who happens to be the younger brother of the CEO of largest shareholder Kaisa Group Holdings (1638 HK), resigned "for personal reasons", effective immediately. A week later, Nam Tai named Dr Lai Ling Tam, to the role of Executive Chairman, and Mr Jiabiao Wang as CEO. Both are ex-Kaisa. So much for independence. In my previous insight Nam Tai Property - An Interesting Activist Situation which introduced the activist situation, I concluded by saying... ...where the company has just spent a lot of cash last quarter buying the Dongguan asset and now that cash is depleted, there could be a risk of a downturn so the company would need to raise cash by offering shares. A third-party placement to a strong development partner like Kaisa might be engineered. It is often the way of things. It is specifically what the activists and their supporters are trying to make sure does not happen. But they are right to be worried that it might.And so it did. I was trying to be gentle in my wording. It is not clear that I needed to be. Nam Tai Property Inc (NTP US) on 5 October announced pre-open that it had raised US$170mm through a private placement (PIPE) of common shares to Kaisa Group Holdings (1638 HK).There may be problems with this.  There may not be.More below the fold. 

Nam Tai Property - Equity Placement Is Awful Governance. Permanent Entrenchment Risk Exists.

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we consider China’s new Three Red Lines leverage guidelines for developers, which have been rolled out on a limited basis. We also look at the context for the policy’s introduction and its implications on credit access for industry players at large.  The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we consider China’s new Three Red Lines leverage guidelines for developers, which have been rolled out on a limited basis. We also look at the context for the policy’s introduction and its implications on credit access for industry players at large.    The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - China's Three Red Lines - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of September includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of September includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - September 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Event-Driven

Stories appeared Thursday in China talking about (and showing a picture of) a purported letter from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-real-estate-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a> to the Guangdong government dated 24 August asking for assistance in restructuring. The letter is reported to have said that its cashflow would be endangered because of a need to repay RMB 130 billion to strategic investors by end January 2021 if Evergrande did not achieve a backdoor listing of its principal mainland subsidiary Hengda Real Estate (which it has been trying to do for three years by injecting Hengda into Shenzhen-listed Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate &amp; Properties Group Co. Ltd.), and such asset sales and lack of ability to raise debt would impair the smooth functioning of the real estate and loan market. The letter asks for assistance in moving forward the listing plan, despite the fact that this would break the informal ban on listing new real estate companies on local exchanges.I refer to media reports about this story in <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-24/evergrande-warns-of-looming-liquidity-crunch-spooking-investors" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-09-25/china-developer-evergrande-denies-its-seeking-government-support-101609336.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Caixin Global</a>, <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/china-evergrande/chinas-no-2-developer-evergrande-pleads-for-government-support-to-avoid-cash-crunch-idINL3N2GL2H9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters</a>, and others about the purported letter.Evergrande issued a SOLEMN DECLARATION via the HKEX Friday night. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/716/original/Screenshot%202020-09-25%20at%2012.30.05%20PM.png?1601008218" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161716"></figure>The story introduced a fair bit of volatility in trading Friday 25 September 2020. The shares fell early, rose to be +6% on the day, then fell sharply - at one point -14.6% on the day.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/161/768/original/Screenshot%202020-09-25%20at%208.28.09%20PM.png?1601036926" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="161768"></figure>194.7 million shares traded. That is the highest in more than 3 years, and represents over 13% of the Real World Float of the company. The stock ended down 9.5% on the day. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-new-energy-vehicle-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:713:1" rel="noopener">China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group (708 HK)</a> was down 13% on Friday. The whole China real estate developer sector listed in Hong Kong fell in a sea of red. Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-25/evergrande-faces-crisis-of-confidence-over-120-billion-debt?sref=ZEpEDN5v" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> the dollar bonds of Evergrande were the worst performer in the Bloomberg Barclays Asia Dollar Bond index. And the domestic bonds fell sharply, with a yuan bond due 2022 falling 18% to RMB 77.7 and a 2024 dropping 30% to 65.9 yuan, with trading reportedly suspended. The company came out again on Friday to say that business was doing OK. But clearly, some people see an issue.Much more below the fold.<div></div>

Stories appeared Thursday in China talking about (and showing a picture of) a purported letter from Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK) to the Guangdong government dated 24 August asking for assistance in restructuring. The letter is reported to have said that its cashflow would be endangered because of a need to repay RMB 130 billion to strategic investors by end January 2021 if Evergrande did not achieve a backdoor listing of its principal mainland subsidiary Hengda Real Estate (which it has been trying to do for three years by injecting Hengda into Shenzhen-listed Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate &amp; Properties Group Co. Ltd.), and such asset sales and lack of ability to raise debt would impair the smooth functioning of the real estate and loan market. The letter asks for assistance in moving forward the listing plan, despite the fact that this would break the informal ban on listing new real estate companies on local exchanges.I refer to media reports about this story in Bloomberg, Caixin Global, Reuters, and others about the purported letter.Evergrande issued a SOLEMN DECLARATION via the HKEX Friday night. The story introduced a fair bit of volatility in trading Friday 25 September 2020. The shares fell early, rose to be +6% on the day, then fell sharply - at one point -14.6% on the day.194.7 million shares traded. That is the highest in more than 3 years, and represents over 13% of the Real World Float of the company. The stock ended down 9.5% on the day. China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group (708 HK) was down 13% on Friday. The whole China real estate developer sector listed in Hong Kong fell in a sea of red. Bloomberg reported the dollar bonds of Evergrande were the worst performer in the Bloomberg Barclays Asia Dollar Bond index. And the domestic bonds fell sharply, with a yuan bond due 2022 falling 18% to RMB 77.7 and a 2024 dropping 30% to 65.9 yuan, with trading reportedly suspended. The company came out again on Friday to say that business was doing OK. But clearly, some people see an issue.Much more below the fold.

Evergrande May Be Facing a Funding Squeeze

China

Kaisa Group Holdings Limited is an integrated real estate company. The Group focuses on urban development and operation. Kaisa Group's real estate business covers the planning, development and operation of large-scale residential properties and integrated commercial properties.

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Kaisa Group Holdings (1638 HK)

Asia HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Nam Tai Property - Equity Placement Is Awful Governance. Permanent Entrenchment Risk Exists.

In the previous insight Nam Tai Property - An Interesting Activist Situation which introduced the activist situation,

Travis Lundy

Asia HY Monthly - China's Three Red Lines - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we consider China’s new Three Red Lines leverage guidelines for developers, which have been rolled out on a...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - September 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of September includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report...

Lucror Analytics

Evergrande May Be Facing a Funding Squeeze

Stori

Travis Lundy

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