Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The May data was weak, though the 12-month Y/Y metrics keep showing improvements, "less negative"; everyone expects more stimulus, a big question is its scope and the extent</li>
<li>The indicators for land sales/acquisitions improved, though, on most metrics in May</li>
<li>May was the third month in a row with a downward revision to some 2022 data</li>
</ul>


The May data was weak, though the 12-month Y/Y metrics keep showing improvements, "less negative"; everyone expects more stimulus, a big question is its scope and the extent
The indicators for land sales/acquisitions improved, though, on most metrics in May
May was the third month in a row with a downward revision to some 2022 data


China Property - Today's Macro Property Data (NBS) For May

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The common narrative today is how the deteriorating demographics in China will have a negative impact on the housing demand</li>
<li>The official aggregate figures indicate the same with the population aging, birth, and marriage data</li>
<li>The twist to this narrative is that <strong>in the near term, the situation for the non-rural population growth looks quite different from the overall figures</strong>
</li>
</ul>


The common narrative today is how the deteriorating demographics in China will have a negative impact on the housing demand
The official aggregate figures indicate the same with the population aging, birth, and marriage data
The twist to this narrative is that in the near term, the situation for the non-rural population growth looks quite different from the overall figures



China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #2: The “Demographic Twist"

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sing-tao-news-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15701:1" rel="noopener">Sing Tao News Corp (1105 HK)</a></strong>, which owns Hong Kong's oldest and third-largest Chinese language newspaper, is <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0518/2023051800159.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.</li>
<li>A takeover of Sing Tao was mooted in 2019-2021 when Charles Ho, the former chairman, sought to exit his 48.98% stake; but that transaction fizzled out.</li>
<li>At a market cap of just US$50mn, this (likely) Offer hardly rates a mention. Yet a takeover of a Hong Kong newspaper is still newsworthy.</li>
</ul>



Sing Tao News Corp (1105 HK), which owns Hong Kong's oldest and third-largest Chinese language newspaper, is suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.
A takeover of Sing Tao was mooted in 2019-2021 when Charles Ho, the former chairman, sought to exit his 48.98% stake; but that transaction fizzled out.
At a market cap of just US$50mn, this (likely) Offer hardly rates a mention. Yet a takeover of a Hong Kong newspaper is still newsworthy.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, Meituan, China Mobile, ICBC, Bilibili, and outflows from CCB, Geely, Sunny Optical.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, Meituan, China Mobile, ICBC, Bilibili, and outflows from CCB, Geely, Sunny Optical.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: 1Y High Inflows in March

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 17th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, ICBC, Bilibili, Meituan, Xiaomi.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 17th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, ICBC, Bilibili, Meituan, Xiaomi.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 17th): Tencent, China Mobile, ICBC, Bilibili, Meituan, Xiaomi

China

Kaisa Group Holdings Limited is an integrated real estate company. The Group focuses on urban development and operation. Kaisa Group's real estate business covers the planning, development and operation of large-scale residential properties and integrated commercial properties.

Price Gauge
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Kaisa Group Holdings (1638 HK)

China Property - Today's Macro Property Data (NBS) For May

China released the official macro-property data today. We dissect the key metrics and read out the data, addressing the key data caveats.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #2: The “Demographic Twist"

The common saying goes "China will get old before it gets rich", but for the market for new homes, there are some important twists to the...

Robert Ciemniak

Sing Tao (1105 HK) Makes Its Own News

Shares are currently suspended. It may be worthwhile looking at the remaining listed publications. Media Chinese International has been in the...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: 1Y High Inflows in March

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for March and highlight flows for Tencent, Meituan, China Mobile, ICBC, Bilibili, CCB, Geely, Sunny Optical.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 17th): Tencent, China Mobile, ICBC, Bilibili, Meituan, Xiaomi

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, ICBC, Bilibili, Meituan, Xiaomi.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)