Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Biden makes the most definitive statement to date that the US will defend Taiwan.</li>
<li>Texas Instruments hikes dividend, annouces additional buyback. Will other cash rich semiconductor stocks follow suit?</li>
<li>Intel vs. TSMC/UMC Trade Monitor: We look at performance streaks for the pairs. Intel outperforming over the last trading sessions.</li>
</ul>


Biden makes the most definitive statement to date that the US will defend Taiwan.
Texas Instruments hikes dividend, annouces additional buyback. Will other cash rich semiconductor stocks follow suit?
Intel vs. TSMC/UMC Trade Monitor: We look at performance streaks for the pairs. Intel outperforming over the last trading sessions.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Biden Says US Will Defend Taiwan, Texas Instruments Gives Hope

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019</li>
<li>Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash</li>
<li>It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019
Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash
It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%


Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Activist Dan Loeb recently backed down from his request that Disney spin out ESPN...something we thought was foolish, and glad is off the table. </li>
<li>Disney is still trapped by the "rock and the hard place" choice of trading higher margin cable subscribers for lower margin (higher churning) streaming subs.</li>
<li>Bob Chapek is a poor choice for Disney CEO...not alot of good options. This company is strategically boxed in. Parks's overearning will dissipate, will be a good short next year. </li>
</ul>


Activist Dan Loeb recently backed down from his request that Disney spin out ESPN...something we thought was foolish, and glad is off the table. 
Disney is still trapped by the "rock and the hard place" choice of trading higher margin cable subscribers for lower margin (higher churning) streaming subs.
Bob Chapek is a poor choice for Disney CEO...not alot of good options. This company is strategically boxed in. Parks's overearning will dissipate, will be a good short next year. 


Loeb Backed Down Quickly…But Is Disney Really in Good Shape?

<ul>
<li>Intel Corp (INTC US)'s upcoming Innovation conference is a potential catalyst for the stock, given we believe there is likelihood of positive product announcements.</li>
<li>Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) and United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT) have already released their August sales figures at the start of September, with next release not until early October.</li>
<li>Newsflow thus could be in Intel's favor through the end of the month. The stock is trading at an all-time low PBV.</li>
</ul>


Intel Corp (INTC US)'s upcoming Innovation conference is a potential catalyst for the stock, given we believe there is likelihood of positive product announcements.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) and United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT) have already released their August sales figures at the start of September, with next release not until early October.
Newsflow thus could be in Intel's favor through the end of the month. The stock is trading at an all-time low PBV.


Intel Vs. TSMC/​UMC Long/​Short Monitor: Upcoming Intel Conference Catalyst

<ul>
<li>On August 31st, Intel’s GM of Data Center &amp; AI spoke at Deutsche Bank’s Technology Conference. On the same day, another executive spoke at Arete Research's fireside chat.</li>
<li>Q2 and Q3E should be the bottom for the business, implying a rebound in Q4. Consensus estimates a similar trend; the latest comments are a confirmation of Q2 results guidance.</li>
<li>We see opportunities for positive news flow in September and Q3 results, as Intel could make key product announcements and guide for Q4 to be a turnaround.</li>
</ul>


On August 31st, Intel’s GM of Data Center &amp; AI spoke at Deutsche Bank’s Technology Conference. On the same day, another executive spoke at Arete Research's fireside chat.
Q2 and Q3E should be the bottom for the business, implying a rebound in Q4. Consensus estimates a similar trend; the latest comments are a confirmation of Q2 results guidance.
We see opportunities for positive news flow in September and Q3 results, as Intel could make key product announcements and guide for Q4 to be a turnaround.


Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Take-Aways from DB Conference & Fireside Chat

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Biden Says US Will Defend Taiwan, Texas Instruments Gives Hope

Also: Intel vs. TSMC/UMC Trade Monitor: We look at performance streaks for the pairs. Intel outperforming over the last trading sessions.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

The semiconductor market is falling and is likely to continue to drop through the end of the year. This presents an opportunity for shorts.

Jim Handy

Loeb Backed Down Quickly…But Is Disney Really in Good Shape?

We think Disney is stuck. DTC streaming service is the future of media, a fundamentally less attractive business model. Disney remains an excellent...

Aaron Gabin

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Upcoming Intel Conference Catalyst

Newsflow thus could be in Intel's favor through the end of the month with the potential for major product announcements September 27th and 28th....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Take-Aways from DB Conference & Fireside Chat

Two Intel execs spoke at Deutsche Bank’s Technology Conference and a fireside chat, we find color on Intel's latest product milestone status and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Biden Says US Will Defend Taiwan, Texas Instruments Gives Hope

Also: Intel vs. TSMC/UMC Trade Monitor: We look at performance streaks for the pairs. Intel outperforming over the last trading sessions.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

The semiconductor market is falling and is likely to continue to drop through the end of the year. This presents an opportunity for shorts.

Jim Handy

Loeb Backed Down Quickly…But Is Disney Really in Good Shape?

We think Disney is stuck. DTC streaming service is the future of media, a fundamentally less attractive business model. Disney remains an excellent...

Aaron Gabin

Intel Vs. TSMC/​UMC Long/​Short Monitor: Upcoming Intel Conference Catalyst

Newsflow thus could be in Intel's favor through the end of the month with the potential for major product announcements September 27th and 28th....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Take-Aways from DB Conference & Fireside Chat

Two Intel execs spoke at Deutsche Bank’s Technology Conference and a fireside chat, we find color on Intel's latest product milestone status and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Upcoming Intel Conference Catalyst