Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel's 3Q22 earnings beat expectations, and the shares reacted positively, rising 10.7%.</li>
<li>The company announced $3bn of cost savings for 2023E and $8-10bn in annual cost savings by 2025E. 2023E earnings guidance will be provided at the company's February Investor Day.</li>
<li>Intel has outperformed TSMC and UMC since our pre-Intel Innovation Conference catalyst piece. Intel could still re-rate further relative to the companies into its next earnings.</li>
</ul>


Intel's 3Q22 earnings beat expectations, and the shares reacted positively, rising 10.7%.
The company announced $3bn of cost savings for 2023E and $8-10bn in annual cost savings by 2025E. 2023E earnings guidance will be provided at the company's February Investor Day.
Intel has outperformed TSMC and UMC since our pre-Intel Innovation Conference catalyst piece. Intel could still re-rate further relative to the companies into its next earnings.


Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​​​UMC Long/​​​​​Short Monitor: Intel Results Drive Share Spike, Still Can Re-Rate

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Intel put forth a significant cost cutting program to generate $3B in savings in 2023 and $8-10B by 2025.</li>
<li>CEO Gelsinger's PC forecasting track record is horrendous, we wouldn't bet on a down MSD 2023 market.</li>
<li>Datacenter...which once carried near 60% margins hit breakeven this quarter... an astonishing fall.</li>
</ul>


Intel put forth a significant cost cutting program to generate $3B in savings in 2023 and $8-10B by 2025.
CEO Gelsinger's PC forecasting track record is horrendous, we wouldn't bet on a down MSD 2023 market.
Datacenter...which once carried near 60% margins hit breakeven this quarter... an astonishing fall.


<ul>
<li>ASML and Lam Research beat estimates last week and provided some relief to the semiconductor space.</li>
<li>Major global industry earnings coming this week include -- Samsung, SK Hynix, Texas Instruments, KLA Tencor, Apple, and Intel.</li>
<li>Major Taiwan earnings this week -- AUO, UMC, ASE, Realtek, Delta Electronics, Mediatek.</li>
</ul>


ASML and Lam Research beat estimates last week and provided some relief to the semiconductor space.
Major global industry earnings coming this week include -- Samsung, SK Hynix, Texas Instruments, KLA Tencor, Apple, and Intel.
Major Taiwan earnings this week -- AUO, UMC, ASE, Realtek, Delta Electronics, Mediatek.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: ASML & Lam Provide Industry Optimism, Wave of Earnings This Week

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Mobileye Global (MBLY US) is getting ready to complete its IPO next week. The IPO price range is between $18 and $20 per share.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Mobileye is implied market cap of $15.2 billion or $19 per share, which is within the IPO price range. </li>
<li>Given the low upside in our target price relative to the IPO price range, we have a Negative view of this IPO.</li>
</ul>


Mobileye Global (MBLY US) is getting ready to complete its IPO next week. The IPO price range is between $18 and $20 per share.
Our base case valuation of Mobileye is implied market cap of $15.2 billion or $19 per share, which is within the IPO price range. 
Given the low upside in our target price relative to the IPO price range, we have a Negative view of this IPO.


Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC says limited impact from U.S. China restrictions -- We crosscheck the comments.</li>
<li>TSMC guidance was strong and gives hope for 1H23 industry improvement. Looks cheap on a cycle-adjusted PE.</li>
<li>Intel has outperformed TSMC shares despite the recent TSMC rebound.</li>
</ul>


TSMC says limited impact from U.S. China restrictions -- We crosscheck the comments.
TSMC guidance was strong and gives hope for 1H23 industry improvement. Looks cheap on a cycle-adjusted PE.
Intel has outperformed TSMC shares despite the recent TSMC rebound.


Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​UMC Long/​​​Short Monitor: Mgmt Call Takeaways, Calculating a Normalized Valuation

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Intel Corp (INTC US)

Intel 3Q22: Still Too Optimistic

Intel's cost cutting program is overly optimistic, much like every other forecast Pat Gelsinger has made since becoming CEO two years ago. Fade...

Aaron Gabin

Taiwan Tech Weekly: ASML & Lam Provide Industry Optimism, Wave of Earnings This Week

Earnings season is now in full swing with a wave of results to be released this week for both the global industry and within Taiwan.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Mobileye Global IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Mobileye is implied market cap of $15.2 billion or $19 per share, which is within the IPO price range. We have a...

Douglas Kim

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Mgmt Call Takeaways, Calculating a Normalized Valuation

TSMC guidance was strong and gives hope for 1H23 industry improvement. We perform an analysis based on cycle-adjusting the company's margins and PE.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​​​UMC Long/​​​​​Short Monitor: Intel Results Drive Share Spike, Still Can Re-Rate

Intel has outperformed TSMC and UMC since our pre-Intel Innovation Conference catalyst piece. Intel could still re-rate further relative to the...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel 3Q22: Still Too Optimistic

Intel's cost cutting program is overly optimistic, much like every other forecast Pat Gelsinger has made since becoming CEO two years ago. Fade...

Aaron Gabin

Taiwan Tech Weekly: ASML & Lam Provide Industry Optimism, Wave of Earnings This Week

Earnings season is now in full swing with a wave of results to be released this week for both the global industry and within Taiwan.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Mobileye Global IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Mobileye is implied market cap of $15.2 billion or $19 per share, which is within the IPO price range. We have a...

Douglas Kim

Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​UMC Long/​​​Short Monitor: Mgmt Call Takeaways, Calculating a Normalized Valuation

TSMC guidance was strong and gives hope for 1H23 industry improvement. We perform an analysis based on cycle-adjusting the company's margins and PE.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Intel Results Drive Share Spike, Still Can Re-Rate

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Mgmt Call Takeaways, Calculating a Normalized Valuation