Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe Elan Microelectronics has capacity for share buybacks in 2023E, and that it could be in shareholder interests.</li>
<li>Even in the coming 2023E down-year, we believe the company could generate over NT$1.7bn in EBITDA. Its balance sheet will remain net-cash.</li>
<li>The company is in a strong position as a leader in touch screens, touch pads, and fingerprint sensors. Intel's upcoming January webinar could provide clarity on the industry cycle.</li>
</ul>


We believe Elan Microelectronics has capacity for share buybacks in 2023E, and that it could be in shareholder interests.
Even in the coming 2023E down-year, we believe the company could generate over NT$1.7bn in EBITDA. Its balance sheet will remain net-cash.
The company is in a strong position as a leader in touch screens, touch pads, and fingerprint sensors. Intel's upcoming January webinar could provide clarity on the industry cycle.


Elan Microelectronics: Capacity for Share Buybacks in 2023E, Intel Event Could Provide Cycle Clarity

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel outperformed TSMC in 1H December, and then TSMC outperformed after some negative rumors about an Intel product delay/cancellation.</li>
<li>After a quiet December, January will be a big month as we will have 4Q22E result for both companies. The expectatioins bar for INTC is set very low.</li>
<li>We see a potential Long INTC vs. Short TSMC opportunity <strong><em>after</em></strong> TSMC has released results and before INTC has released its results.</li>
</ul>


Intel outperformed TSMC in 1H December, and then TSMC outperformed after some negative rumors about an Intel product delay/cancellation.
After a quiet December, January will be a big month as we will have 4Q22E result for both companies. The expectatioins bar for INTC is set very low.
We see a potential Long INTC vs. Short TSMC opportunity after TSMC has released results and before INTC has released its results.


Intel Vs. TSMC Monitor: After a Quiet December, January Will Be a Big Month

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Micron's earnings call gives a good advanced warning of similar companies' reports</li>
<li>The company's downturn is the worst in the past 13 years</li>
<li>Not all chip companies will suffer this downturn, and few will do as badly as commodity memory makers.  Tool makers will feel the impact next year.</li>
</ul>


Micron's earnings call gives a good advanced warning of similar companies' reports
The company's downturn is the worst in the past 13 years
Not all chip companies will suffer this downturn, and few will do as badly as commodity memory makers.  Tool makers will feel the impact next year.


Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron released its latest results, missing expectations and implying more near-term pain for the memory chip space.</li>
<li>Hon Hai could shift 30% of its production for Apple outside of China according to an industry report.</li>
<li>Intel delays German expansion citing cost inflation, seeking additional government subsidies.</li>
</ul>


Micron released its latest results, missing expectations and implying more near-term pain for the memory chip space.
Hon Hai could shift 30% of its production for Apple outside of China according to an industry report.
Intel delays German expansion citing cost inflation, seeking additional government subsidies.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings Miss Implies Margin Downside, Hon Hai Moving 30% Apple Business

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>The 2022 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" had the weakest performance since 2017, with only China Shineway posting a positive return</li>
<li>Olam, Rex and Starhub all declined approximately 16% in FY22</li>
<li>Our 2023 vintage will hopefully perform better with 4 out of 5 favorites in the commodity space</li>
</ul>


The 2022 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" had the weakest performance since 2017, with only China Shineway posting a positive return
Olam, Rex and Starhub all declined approximately 16% in FY22
Our 2023 vintage will hopefully perform better with 4 out of 5 favorites in the commodity space


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2022...And 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2023

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Intel Vs. TSMC Monitor: After a Quiet December, January Will Be a Big Month

We see a potential Long INTC vs. Short TSMC opportunity after TSMC has released results and before INTC has released its results.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron Earnings Give Semi Market Outlook

Micron's just-announced revenues indicate trouble today for its peers and trouble next year for tool makers, but other sectors should fare much...

Jim Handy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings Miss Implies Margin Downside, Hon Hai Moving 30% Apple Business

Micron released its latest results, missing expectations and implying more near-term pain for the memory chip space. Also -- U.S. chip restrictions...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2022...And 5 High Conviction Ideas Going into 2023

Our FY22 vintage of High Conviction Ideas had its weakest performance since FY17. We hope for better returns for our commodity-focused FY23 selection.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

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