Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The wafer demand outlook for 1Q24F should be around flat, but ASP (Average Selling Price) is expected to decline by negative mid-single digits.</li>
<li>Compared to 4Q23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>'s foundry demand is larger and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>'s foundry demand is downsized in 1Q24F. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> are currently discussing the allocation issue of 12nm capacity.</li>
</ul>


The wafer demand outlook for 1Q24F should be around flat, but ASP (Average Selling Price) is expected to decline by negative mid-single digits.
Compared to 4Q23, Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)'s foundry demand is larger and Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s foundry demand is downsized in 1Q24F. 

United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT) and Intel Corp (INTC US) are currently discussing the allocation issue of 12nm capacity.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Outlook, the Wafer Demand of MediaTek and Samsung.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia Vs. Taiwan Short Basket: Hedge Working; CES 2024 Likely Positive for Nvidia Vs. Basket</li>
<li>Silicon Motion: Next Wave of the Memory Recovery; High-End NAND Prices More Than Doubled From Lows</li>
<li>AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer</li>
</ul>


Nvidia Vs. Taiwan Short Basket: Hedge Working; CES 2024 Likely Positive for Nvidia Vs. Basket
Silicon Motion: Next Wave of the Memory Recovery; High-End NAND Prices More Than Doubled From Lows
AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Stocks At Highs & Looking for Laggards? CES 2024 to Showcase Edge AI

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a>'s revenue outlook for 1Q24F is expected to show a decline of around negative high single digits QoQ.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> aims to receive x86 CPU technology from TSMC 3nm in 1H24F.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> plans to utilize 3nm technology for manufacturing smartphone SoCs in 2H24F, which will narrow the gap with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a>.  </li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)'s revenue outlook for 1Q24F is expected to show a decline of around negative high single digits QoQ.

Intel Corp (INTC US) aims to receive x86 CPU technology from TSMC 3nm in 1H24F.

Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) plans to utilize 3nm technology for manufacturing smartphone SoCs in 2H24F, which will narrow the gap with Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US).  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 1Q24F Revenue Outlook and the Progress for Intel, MediaTek and Samsung.

<ul>
<li>PC Shares Soaring -- After 1) Intel's AI Everywhere AI chip launch, 2) Launch of First AI PCs, 3) Micron's positive outlook for PCs in its latest results</li>
<li>Micron Analysis, Industry Takeaways: Memory Market TAM New Highs into 2025; SK Hynix Trade</li>
<li>Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at a Decent Short Level; ASE Short Interest Declining</li>
</ul>


PC Shares Soaring -- After 1) Intel's AI Everywhere AI chip launch, 2) Launch of First AI PCs, 3) Micron's positive outlook for PCs in its latest results
Micron Analysis, Industry Takeaways: Memory Market TAM New Highs into 2025; SK Hynix Trade
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at a Decent Short Level; ASE Short Interest Declining


Taiwan Tech Weekly: PC Shares Clearly On Santa's Nice List; Soaring After AI PC Releases; Dell Trade

uPI Semiconductor Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UPI Semi is a specialist designer of electronic components and semiconductors for power management. Power management is a key performance factor for AI devices.</li>
<li>UPI's clients include most of the world's largest leading technology companies for semiconductor distribution and AI products.</li>
<li>UPI shares have lagged the strong performance of its clients -- We see opportunity for UPI to now Outperform.</li>
</ul>


UPI Semi is a specialist designer of electronic components and semiconductors for power management. Power management is a key performance factor for AI devices.
UPI's clients include most of the world's largest leading technology companies for semiconductor distribution and AI products.
UPI shares have lagged the strong performance of its clients -- We see opportunity for UPI to now Outperform.


Power Semiconductor Specialist Will Benefit from AI Yet Lagging Key Customers' Share Price Rallies

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Outlook, the Wafer Demand of MediaTek and Samsung.

The wafer demand for 1Q24F is expected to be flat, but the ASP is projected to decline. MediaTek's demand is larger while Samsung's is downsized....

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Stocks At Highs & Looking for Laggards? CES 2024 to Showcase Edge AI

Summary: Nvidia is expected to perform well at CES 2024, while Silicon Motion predicts a memory recovery and increased NAND prices. The PC upgrade...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 1Q24F Revenue Outlook and the Progress for Intel, MediaTek and Samsung.

TSMC shows a likely decline in 1Q24F. Intel aims to receive technology from TSMC for 3nm demand. Mediatek plans to narrow the gap with QCOM by...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: PC Shares Clearly On Santa's Nice List; Soaring After AI PC Releases; Dell Trade

PC Shares Soaring -- After 1) Intel's AI Everywhere AI chip launch, 2) Launch of First AI PCs, 3) Micron's positive outlook for PCs in its latest...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Outlook, the Wafer Demand of MediaTek and Samsung.

​The wafer demand for 1Q24F is expected to be flat, but the ASP is projected to decline. MediaTek's demand is larger while Samsung's is downsized....

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Stocks At Highs & Looking for Laggards? CES 2024 to Showcase Edge AI

​Summary: Nvidia is expected to perform well at CES 2024, while Silicon Motion predicts a memory recovery and increased NAND prices. The PC upgrade...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The 1Q24F Revenue Outlook and the Progress for Intel, MediaTek and Samsung.

​TSMC shows a likely decline in 1Q24F. Intel aims to receive technology from TSMC for 3nm demand. Mediatek plans to narrow the gap with QCOM by...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: PC Shares Clearly On Santa's Nice List; Soaring After AI PC Releases; Dell Trade

PC Shares Soaring -- After 1) Intel's AI Everywhere AI chip launch, 2) Launch of First AI PCs, 3) Micron's positive outlook for PCs in its latest...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Power Semiconductor Specialist Will Benefit from AI Yet Lagging Key Customers' Share Price Rallies

UPI's clients include most of the world's leading tech companies for chip distribution and AI products. UPI shares have lagged the strong...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The wafer demand for 1Q24F is expected to be flat, but the ASP is projected to decline. MediaTek's demand is larger while Samsung's is downsized....

Summary: Nvidia is expected to perform well at CES 2024, while Silicon Motion predicts a memory recovery and increased NAND prices. The PC upgrade...

TSMC shows a likely decline in 1Q24F. Intel aims to receive technology from TSMC for 3nm demand. Mediatek plans to narrow the gap with QCOM by...