Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMD’s resurgence against a dominant Intel saw the company grow annual revenues &gt;4x between 2017 and 2022</li>
<li>FY 2023 revenue is likely to be down roughly $1 billion or ~4% YoY.</li>
<li>We expect a combination of renewed Data Center market share growth plus a grand entrance into the AI acceleration segment will restart the party all over again in 2024. </li>
</ul>


AMD’s resurgence against a dominant Intel saw the company grow annual revenues &gt;4x between 2017 and 2022
FY 2023 revenue is likely to be down roughly $1 billion or ~4% YoY.
We expect a combination of renewed Data Center market share growth plus a grand entrance into the AI acceleration segment will restart the party all over again in 2024. 


AMD. With FY23 Revenues Set to Fall ~4% YoY, Is The Party Over?

<p>With critically acclaimed launches of next-generation consumer and server processors, growing GPU sales to the data center, steadily increasing market share, impressive supercomputing design wins, a strategically significant GPU partnership with Samsung, even tacit acknowledgement of competitive progress by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices</a> has arguably just experienced the most exciting three months in the company's 50-year history. Yet, this same period saw the company's stock fall by almost 18% on the back of a weaker than expected full year outlook coupled with broader market uncertainties related to trade wars and an increasingly gloomy global economic growth outlook. Despite this setback, we remain convinced in our view that the best is yet to come for AMD. Here's why. </p>

With critically acclaimed launches of next-generation consumer and server processors, growing GPU sales to the data center, steadily increasing market share, impressive supercomputing design wins, a strategically significant GPU partnership with Samsung, even tacit acknowledgement of competitive progress by Intel,  Advanced Micro Devices has arguably just experienced the most exciting three months in the company's 50-year history. Yet, this same period saw the company's stock fall by almost 18% on the back of a weaker than expected full year outlook coupled with broader market uncertainties related to trade wars and an increasingly gloomy global economic growth outlook. Despite this setback, we remain convinced in our view that the best is yet to come for AMD. Here's why. 

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>On December 8th, GUC reached its daily limit at the closing price, but the company did not consistently demonstrate an agreeable attitude.</li>
<li>The "AI" is an explicit knowledge for today, while GUC is a company of project based. </li>
<li>GUC's monthly revenue decreased by 22.15% YoY in November 2023.</li>
</ul>


On December 8th, GUC reached its daily limit at the closing price, but the company did not consistently demonstrate an agreeable attitude.
The "AI" is an explicit knowledge for today, while GUC is a company of project based. 
GUC's monthly revenue decreased by 22.15% YoY in November 2023.


GUC (3443.TT): Why the Company Did Show a Bit Cautious Attitude with the Market Price?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global semi sales for October 2023 amounted to $46.6 billion, an increase of 3.9% MoM but still down 0.7% compared to the year-ago period</li>
<li>Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $25.6 billion in Q323, down 11% YoY and down 1% QoQ</li>
<li>China is on track to maintain the global #1 semi WFE spender slot for the fourth year in a row and by the widest margin ever. </li>
</ul>


Global semi sales for October 2023 amounted to $46.6 billion, an increase of 3.9% MoM but still down 0.7% compared to the year-ago period
Global semiconductor equipment billings amounted to $25.6 billion in Q323, down 11% YoY and down 1% QoQ
China is on track to maintain the global #1 semi WFE spender slot for the fourth year in a row and by the widest margin ever. 


Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @6/12/23

<ul>
<li>9.4% semi revenue decline in 2023 seems about right to us</li>
<li>Forecast of13.1% semi revenue increase in 2024, seems on the high side</li>
<li>Forecast assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. Sanjay will be delighted to hear the good news!</li>
</ul>


9.4% semi revenue decline in 2023 seems about right to us
Forecast of13.1% semi revenue increase in 2024, seems on the high side
Forecast assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. Sanjay will be delighted to hear the good news!


WSTS Forecasts Semi Revenue Increase of 13.1% In 2024. Seriously?

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

AMD. With FY23 Revenues Set to Fall ~4% YoY, Is The Party Over?

Despite FY23 revenues on track to decline ~4% YoY, we expect a combination of renewed DC market share growth + a grand entrance to the AI...

William Keating

AMD.The Best Is Yet To Come!

We've been writing about AMD's resurgence for > 5 years. This article from mid 2019 chronicles a critical time in AMD's comeback. Despite having...

William Keating

GUC (3443.TT): Why the Company Did Show a Bit Cautious Attitude with the Market Price?

GUC's daily limit reached, but company's attitude inconsistent. GUC's project-based nature contrasts with the prominence of "AI" knowledge....

Patrick Liao

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @6/12/23

Global semi sales for October 23 of $46.6 billion, +3.9% MoM, -0.7% YoY. Q323 semi WFE billings $25.6 billion, -11% YoY, -1% QoQ. China set to...

William Keating

WSTS Forecasts Semi Revenue Increase of 13.1% In 2024. Seriously?

WSTS forecast for 13.1% semi growth in 2024 assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. This is an unlikely scenario and not at all the vibe we...

William Keating

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

AMD. With FY23 Revenues Set to Fall ~4% YoY, Is The Party Over?

Despite FY23 revenues on track to decline ~4% YoY, we expect a combination of renewed DC market share growth + a grand entrance to the AI...

William Keating

AMD.The Best Is Yet To Come!

We've been writing about AMD's resurgence for > 5 years. This article from mid 2019 chronicles a critical time in AMD's comeback. Despite having...

William Keating

GUC (3443.TT): Why the Company Did Show a Bit Cautious Attitude with the Market Price?

​GUC's daily limit reached, but company's attitude inconsistent. GUC's project-based nature contrasts with the prominence of "AI" knowledge....

Patrick Liao

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @6/12/23

Global semi sales for October 23 of $46.6 billion, +3.9% MoM, -0.7% YoY. Q323 semi WFE billings $25.6 billion, -11% YoY, -1% QoQ. China set to...

William Keating

WSTS Forecasts Semi Revenue Increase of 13.1% In 2024. Seriously?

WSTS forecast for 13.1% semi growth in 2024 assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. This is an unlikely scenario and not at all the vibe we...

William Keating

GUC's daily limit reached, but company's attitude inconsistent. GUC's project-based nature contrasts with the prominence of "AI" knowledge....