Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Nanya 12/23 revenues NT$ 3,162 million, +10% MoM, +31.73% YoY. UMC 12/23 revenues NT$ 16,979,226. -9.6% MoM, -18.9%  YoY. Samsung Q423 Sales Flat,  Op Profit +16% QoQ</li>
<li>Quintaurius, a RISC-V collaboration between Bosch, Infineon, Nordic, NXP &amp; Qualcomm, launched in Germany</li>
<li>Intel takes delivery of the first ASML High-NA EUV tool. It's a great photo opportunity but that's about as far as it goes</li>
</ul>


Nanya 12/23 revenues NT$ 3,162 million, +10% MoM, +31.73% YoY. UMC 12/23 revenues NT$ 16,979,226. -9.6% MoM, -18.9%  YoY. Samsung Q423 Sales Flat,  Op Profit +16% QoQ
Quintaurius, a RISC-V collaboration between Bosch, Infineon, Nordic, NXP &amp; Qualcomm, launched in Germany
Intel takes delivery of the first ASML High-NA EUV tool. It's a great photo opportunity but that's about as far as it goes


Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @9/1/2024

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> is likely to see that there could be a decline of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.</li>
<li>In terms of revenue contribution, Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan account for approximately 40%, 20%, 15%, 15%, and 10% respectively.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> may give up technology development at 40nm and above and transfer them to Vanguard.</li>
</ul>



Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) is likely to see that there could be a decline of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.
In terms of revenue contribution, Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan account for approximately 40%, 20%, 15%, 15%, and 10% respectively.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) may give up technology development at 40nm and above and transfer them to Vanguard.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Might Decline ~10% QoQ.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>On January 4th, Microsoft announced a design change for PCs whereby a new physical key will be added to PC keyboards; the Microsoft Copilot key.</li>
<li>Microsoft Copilot will become a must-have for companies in our view. Initial Copilot capabilities can dramatically improve worker productivity and this should help drive AI PC upgrades for the industry.</li>
<li>CES 2024 Jan 9th - 12th will showcase AI PC models sporting Intel's Core Ultra processors and Microsoft's new Copilot key. We also update our Dell vs. Taiwan PCs trade.</li>
</ul>


On January 4th, Microsoft announced a design change for PCs whereby a new physical key will be added to PC keyboards; the Microsoft Copilot key.
Microsoft Copilot will become a must-have for companies in our view. Initial Copilot capabilities can dramatically improve worker productivity and this should help drive AI PC upgrades for the industry.
CES 2024 Jan 9th - 12th will showcase AI PC models sporting Intel's Core Ultra processors and Microsoft's new Copilot key. We also update our Dell vs. Taiwan PCs trade.


'Clippy' Having the Last Laugh? Microsoft's Design Change to Drive AI PC Adoption; Dell Trade Update

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The wafer demand outlook for 1Q24F should be around flat, but ASP (Average Selling Price) is expected to decline by negative mid-single digits.</li>
<li>Compared to 4Q23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>'s foundry demand is larger and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>'s foundry demand is downsized in 1Q24F. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> are currently discussing the allocation issue of 12nm capacity.</li>
</ul>


The wafer demand outlook for 1Q24F should be around flat, but ASP (Average Selling Price) is expected to decline by negative mid-single digits.
Compared to 4Q23, Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)'s foundry demand is larger and Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s foundry demand is downsized in 1Q24F. 

United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT) and Intel Corp (INTC US) are currently discussing the allocation issue of 12nm capacity.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Outlook, the Wafer Demand of MediaTek and Samsung.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia Vs. Taiwan Short Basket: Hedge Working; CES 2024 Likely Positive for Nvidia Vs. Basket</li>
<li>Silicon Motion: Next Wave of the Memory Recovery; High-End NAND Prices More Than Doubled From Lows</li>
<li>AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer</li>
</ul>


Nvidia Vs. Taiwan Short Basket: Hedge Working; CES 2024 Likely Positive for Nvidia Vs. Basket
Silicon Motion: Next Wave of the Memory Recovery; High-End NAND Prices More Than Doubled From Lows
AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Stocks At Highs & Looking for Laggards? CES 2024 to Showcase Edge AI

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @9/1/2024

Quintaurius, a RISC-V collaboration between Bosch, Infineon, Nordic, NXP & Qualcomm, launches. Intel gets first ASML High-NA EUV tool. Great photo...

William Keating

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Might Decline ~10% QoQ.

TSMC may see a 10% decline in 1Q24F, with Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan being major revenue contributors. TSMC might also transfer 40nm and...

Patrick Liao

'Clippy' Having the Last Laugh? Microsoft's Design Change to Drive AI PC Adoption; Dell Trade Update

We believe Microsoft's new Copilot key will drive awareness and usage of AI capabilities, driving AI PC upgrades. CES 2024 this week will showcase...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Outlook, the Wafer Demand of MediaTek and Samsung.

The wafer demand for 1Q24F is expected to be flat, but the ASP is projected to decline. MediaTek's demand is larger while Samsung's is downsized....

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Stocks At Highs & Looking for Laggards? CES 2024 to Showcase Edge AI

Summary: Nvidia is expected to perform well at CES 2024, while Silicon Motion predicts a memory recovery and increased NAND prices. The PC upgrade...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Semiconductor Events Deserving Your Attention @9/1/2024

Quintaurius, a RISC-V collaboration between Bosch, Infineon, Nordic, NXP & Qualcomm, launches. Intel gets first ASML High-NA EUV tool. Great photo...

William Keating

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Might Decline ~10% QoQ.

​TSMC may see a 10% decline in 1Q24F, with Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan being major revenue contributors. TSMC might also transfer 40nm and...

Patrick Liao

'Clippy' Having the Last Laugh? Microsoft's Design Change to Drive AI PC Adoption; Dell Trade Update

We believe ​Microsoft's new Copilot key will drive awareness and usage of AI capabilities, driving AI PC upgrades. CES 2024 this week will showcase...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Outlook, the Wafer Demand of MediaTek and Samsung.

​The wafer demand for 1Q24F is expected to be flat, but the ASP is projected to decline. MediaTek's demand is larger while Samsung's is downsized....

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Stocks At Highs & Looking for Laggards? CES 2024 to Showcase Edge AI

​Summary: Nvidia is expected to perform well at CES 2024, while Silicon Motion predicts a memory recovery and increased NAND prices. The PC upgrade...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC may see a 10% decline in 1Q24F, with Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan being major revenue contributors. TSMC might also transfer 40nm and...

We believe Microsoft's new Copilot key will drive awareness and usage of AI capabilities, driving AI PC upgrades. CES 2024 this week will showcase...

The wafer demand for 1Q24F is expected to be flat, but the ASP is projected to decline. MediaTek's demand is larger while Samsung's is downsized....

Summary: Nvidia is expected to perform well at CES 2024, while Silicon Motion predicts a memory recovery and increased NAND prices. The PC upgrade...