Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
<li>Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.</li>
<li>We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).
Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.
We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.


Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Amid recent market carnage, one of the strong turnaround stocks in Korea is NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) which is down 54% from its highs in February 2021.</li>
<li>Three major reasons why NCsoft's share price will turnaround include attractive valuations, better control of labor costs, and strong pipeline of new games. </li>
<li>Short sale value/market cap ratio for NCsoft has declined materially in the past several weeks, reflecting increased optimism in the company's future prospects. </li>
</ul>


Amid recent market carnage, one of the strong turnaround stocks in Korea is NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) which is down 54% from its highs in February 2021.
Three major reasons why NCsoft's share price will turnaround include attractive valuations, better control of labor costs, and strong pipeline of new games. 
Short sale value/market cap ratio for NCsoft has declined materially in the past several weeks, reflecting increased optimism in the company's future prospects. 


NCsoft: A Strong Turnaround Play in Korean Game Sector

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Major global indices have relegated Russia to the "standalone" and "unclassified" market status. Talk of significant flows into major non-Russia EM markets such as China, Taiwan, Korea, etc is misguided. </li>
<li>Even if OLX and VK Group are written down to zero, the fall in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>'s implied stub has overshot the mark</li>
<li>The founder and former chairman and CEO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a> has passed away. The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.</li>
</ul>


Major global indices have relegated Russia to the "standalone" and "unclassified" market status. Talk of significant flows into major non-Russia EM markets such as China, Taiwan, Korea, etc is misguided. 
Even if OLX and VK Group are written down to zero, the fall in Prosus (PRX NA)'s implied stub has overshot the mark
The founder and former chairman and CEO of Nexon (3659 JP) has passed away. The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Russia/Indices, Prosus, Virtus, Crown, Nexon, Hitachi Metals

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>There are three ways families can settle inheritance tax: 1. payment in Kind, 2. direct sale of the NXC stake, and 3. NXC sells its stake in Nexon Japan.</li>
<li>They have different ramifications from an investment point of view, and the third option is probably the one that the market desires most.</li>
<li>If the family goes for the third option, they will likely sell all of NXC's Nexon Japan stake (47.89%), which will lead to a TOB to Nexon Japan minority shareholders.</li>
</ul>


There are three ways families can settle inheritance tax: 1. payment in Kind, 2. direct sale of the NXC stake, and 3. NXC sells its stake in Nexon Japan.
They have different ramifications from an investment point of view, and the third option is probably the one that the market desires most.
If the family goes for the third option, they will likely sell all of NXC's Nexon Japan stake (47.89%), which will lead to a TOB to Nexon Japan minority shareholders.


Three Ways of Settling Nexon Inheritance Tax Payment: Each Way's Ramifications

Japan

Nexon Co., Ltd. mainly develops and services, online games for PC and mobile devices. The company also offers consulting services related to online-games. Nexon operates in Japan.

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Nexon (3659 JP)

Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China $MCHI, and...

Vermilion Research

NCsoft: A Strong Turnaround Play in Korean Game Sector

Three major reasons why NCsoft's share price will turnaround include attractive valuations, better control of labor costs, and strong pipeline of...

Douglas Kim

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Russia/Indices, Prosus, Virtus, Crown, Nexon, Hitachi Metals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Three Ways of Settling Nexon Inheritance Tax Payment: Each Way's Ramifications

This post examines three ways of the Nexon family settling the inheritance tax payment. They have different ramifications from a trading perspective.

Sanghyun Park

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