Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We add value play Bank of Baroda to the peer group, and to our buy list; we also add liquidity and funding screens and a PEG ratio valuation metric</li>
<li>We keep HDFC Bank as our higher quality bank, with its strong balance sheet, especially on NPA coverage, and further positive momentum from the upcoming HDFC merger</li>
<li>We remain negative on State Bank of India, and we are also cautious on ICICI Bank; Axis bank remains a name to watch, although valuations are far from compelling</li>
</ul>


We add value play Bank of Baroda to the peer group, and to our buy list; we also add liquidity and funding screens and a PEG ratio valuation metric
We keep HDFC Bank as our higher quality bank, with its strong balance sheet, especially on NPA coverage, and further positive momentum from the upcoming HDFC merger
We remain negative on State Bank of India, and we are also cautious on ICICI Bank; Axis bank remains a name to watch, although valuations are far from compelling


Indian Banks Screener: Adding Value Pick Bank of Baroda, Stick with HDFC Bank for Quality

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Media reports indicate that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> is expected to complete in 4-5 weeks.</li>
<li>There will be inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index </a>and capping changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index</a> apart from changes to global indices.</li>
<li>While the impact on the merging entities is not big, there will be fairly large flows on some stocks that are index inclusions or affected by capping changes.</li>
</ul>


Media reports indicate that the HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) merger with HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) is expected to complete in 4-5 weeks.
There will be inclusions to the NIFTY Index, Nifty Next 50 Index and S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index and capping changes to the Nifty Bank Index apart from changes to global indices.
While the impact on the merging entities is not big, there will be fairly large flows on some stocks that are index inclusions or affected by capping changes.


HDFC/​​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>ITC: ITC’s Q4 print was largely in-line with Revenue/EBITDA/APAT growing by 7/19/20% vs the expectation of 8/17/17%</li><li>Cigarette revenue/EBIT growth was at 14% each, with volume growth at c.11.5% (4% four-year CAGR)</li><li>A stable tax environment, normalisation in demand, &amp; deterrent action by agencies on illicit trade continue to support cigarette recovery</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ITC: ITC’s Q4 print was largely in-line with Revenue/EBITDA/APAT growing by 7/19/20% vs the expectation of 8/17/17%Cigarette revenue/EBIT growth was at 14% each, with volume growth at c.11.5% (4% four-year CAGR)A stable tax environment, normalisation in demand, &amp; deterrent action by agencies on illicit trade continue to support cigarette recoveryContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, State Bank of India, Berger Paints

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, State Bank of India, Berger Paints, Tata Elxsi

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Advances (net) reported a robust growth of 17/5% YoY/QoQ.</li><li>The healthy growth in the loan book was driven by retail book growth of ~18/5%YoY/QoQ (unsecured retail Xpress credit grew 23/12% YoY/QoQ), international loan growth of ~20% YoY (in rupee terms) and SME book growth of 18% YoY.</li><li>Robust growth in advances and NIM expansion by 9bps QoQ aided healthy growth in NII by 29/6% YoY/QoQ.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Advances (net) reported a robust growth of 17/5% YoY/QoQ.The healthy growth in the loan book was driven by retail book growth of ~18/5%YoY/QoQ (unsecured retail Xpress credit grew 23/12% YoY/QoQ), international loan growth of ~20% YoY (in rupee terms) and SME book growth of 18% YoY.Robust growth in advances and NIM expansion by 9bps QoQ aided healthy growth in NII by 29/6% YoY/QoQ.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

State Bank of India - Healthy Quarter; 1% RoA Delivery to Continue!!

India

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

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State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)

Indian Banks Screener: Adding Value Pick Bank of Baroda, Stick with HDFC Bank for Quality

We add liquidity and funding screens to the Indian banks adding value play Bank of Baroda to the group and to our buy list, with HDFC Bank; we stay...

Victor Galliano

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications

Media reports indicate that the HDFC Bank merger with HDFC Ltd is expected to complete in 4-5 weeks. There will be ad hoc inclusions to the...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, State Bank of India, Berger Paints

ITC: ITC’s Q4 print was largely in-line with Revenue/EBITDA/APAT growing by 7/19/20% vs the expectation of 8/17/17%. Cigarette revenue/EBIT growth...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, State Bank of India, Berger Paints, Tata Elxsi

ITC: ITC’s Q4 print was largely in-line with Revenue/EBITDA/APAT growing by 7/19/20% vs the expectation of 8/17/17%. Cigarette revenue/EBIT growth...

HDFC Securities

State Bank of India - Healthy Quarter; 1% RoA Delivery to Continue!!

The healthy growth in the loan book was driven by retail book growth of ~18/5%YoY/QoQ (unsecured retail Xpress credit grew 23/12% YoY/QoQ)

Axis Direct

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indian Banks Screener: Adding Value Pick Bank of Baroda, Stick with HDFC Bank for Quality

We add liquidity and funding screens to the Indian banks adding value play Bank of Baroda to the group and to our buy list, with HDFC Bank; we stay...

Victor Galliano

HDFC/​​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications

Media reports indicate that the HDFC Bank merger with HDFC Ltd is expected to complete in 4-5 weeks. There will be ad hoc inclusions to the...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, State Bank of India, Berger Paints

ITC: ITC’s Q4 print was largely in-line with Revenue/EBITDA/APAT growing by 7/19/20% vs the expectation of 8/17/17%. Cigarette revenue/EBIT growth...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, State Bank of India, Berger Paints, Tata Elxsi

ITC: ITC’s Q4 print was largely in-line with Revenue/EBITDA/APAT growing by 7/19/20% vs the expectation of 8/17/17%. Cigarette revenue/EBIT growth...

HDFC Securities

State Bank of India - Healthy Quarter; 1% RoA Delivery to Continue!!

The healthy growth in the loan book was driven by retail book growth of ~18/5%YoY/QoQ (unsecured retail Xpress credit grew 23/12% YoY/QoQ)

Axis Direct

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications