Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
<li>Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.</li>
<li>We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).
Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.
We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.


Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> market consultation released last week could lead to some tweaks to the index methodology and the stock selection process. Nothing really material enough though.</li>
<li>Potential index inclusions in September are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-pacific-international-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1" rel="noopener">Pan Pacific International Holdings</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo Co Ltd</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oki-electric-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2181:1" rel="noopener">Oki Electric Industry</a> are potential index deletions.</li>
<li>Passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> trackers will need to buy between 4-9% of the real float on the high/ medium probability names, while they need to buy between 2.5-14 days of ADV.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) market consultation released last week could lead to some tweaks to the index methodology and the stock selection process. Nothing really material enough though.
Potential index inclusions in September are Renesas Electronics, Oriental Land and Pan Pacific International Holdings, while Toyobo Co Ltd, Nippon Light Metal and Oki Electric Industry are potential index deletions.
Passive Nikkei 225 trackers will need to buy between 4-9% of the real float on the high/ medium probability names, while they need to buy between 2.5-14 days of ADV.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation & Potential Changes

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>About 9 days I ago I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/renesas-6723-jp-on-top-of-peer-beating-growth-and-valuation-watch-for-buybacks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:68571" rel="noopener">Renesas (6723 JP) - On Top of Peer-Beating Growth, and Valuation... Watch for Buybacks</a>. Today with Q1 earnings, they announced a ¥200bn buyback. </li>
<li>What appears to be a quite strong Q1 in automotive in both revenues and margins, and decent incremental margins, sees a stronger Q2 forecast (but less good incremental margins).</li>
<li>The Street is well behind guidance, and a buyback at the high end of potential guidance and coming earlier than expected is all to the good. </li>
</ul>


About 9 days I ago I wrote Renesas (6723 JP) - On Top of Peer-Beating Growth, and Valuation... Watch for Buybacks. Today with Q1 earnings, they announced a ¥200bn buyback. 
What appears to be a quite strong Q1 in automotive in both revenues and margins, and decent incremental margins, sees a stronger Q2 forecast (but less good incremental margins).
The Street is well behind guidance, and a buyback at the high end of potential guidance and coming earlier than expected is all to the good. 


Renesas (6723 JP) - Salutary Q1, Strong Q2 Forecast, and a BIG Buyback

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Renesas’ 1Q numbers blew away guidance and consensus as revenue beat by 3.4% and adjusted OP beat by 16%. </li>
<li>Revenue growth was strong for both Auto and Industrial with Industrial margins also improving noticeably vs. last Q. </li>
<li>Renesas also announced a rather large buyback which is effectively a repurchase of the INCJ’s stake.</li>
</ul>


Renesas’ 1Q numbers blew away guidance and consensus as revenue beat by 3.4% and adjusted OP beat by 16%. 
Revenue growth was strong for both Auto and Industrial with Industrial margins also improving noticeably vs. last Q. 
Renesas also announced a rather large buyback which is effectively a repurchase of the INCJ’s stake.


Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The semiconductor market is now 45% above its normal revenue trend.</li>
<li>This situation is driven mostly by today's COVID-related demand changes.</li>
<li>Eventually the market will return to its normal growth, with revenues dropping by over 30%.</li>
</ul>


The semiconductor market is now 45% above its normal revenue trend.
This situation is driven mostly by today's COVID-related demand changes.
Eventually the market will return to its normal growth, with revenues dropping by over 30%.


Semiconductor Revenues Remain Well Above Trend

Japan

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

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Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)

Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China $MCHI, and...

Vermilion Research

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation & Potential Changes

Based on the market consultation and the new liquidity measure, we have Renesas Electronics, Oriental Land and Pan Pacific International Holdings...

Brian Freitas

Renesas (6723 JP) - Salutary Q1, Strong Q2 Forecast, and a BIG Buyback

Renesas Q1 salutary, beating estimates. Q2 guidance stronger on top line, not quite as exciting on margin basis suggesting built-in expectations of...

Travis Lundy

Renesas – Like We Said… Accelerating

Renesas earnings continue to accelerate while a discounted buyback of INCJ shares will help boost EPS even further. This remains a key long in the...

Mio Kato

Semiconductor Revenues Remain Well Above Trend

Semiconductors are 45% above their long-term revenue trend. This is poised to continue for the near term, but a big change will occur further out.

Jim Handy

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