Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18907:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP)</a> is looking to raise up to US$3.5bn via a primary offering and a sale of Treasury shares. Pricing date is between 26-29 November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18907:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP)</a> is among the better performing stocks from the Electric Utilities industry and trades at higher valuations compared to its peers.</li>
<li>There will be a fair bit of passive buying with around 29% of the offering being bought at the time of settlement of the shares.</li>
</ul>



Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) is looking to raise up to US$3.5bn via a primary offering and a sale of Treasury shares. Pricing date is between 26-29 November.

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) is among the better performing stocks from the Electric Utilities industry and trades at higher valuations compared to its peers.
There will be a fair bit of passive buying with around 29% of the offering being bought at the time of settlement of the shares.


KEPCO (9503 JP): Index Implications of US$3.5bn Primary + Secondary Offering

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Renesas Electronics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11171:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP)</a> is looking to raise approximately US$800m through an accelerated secondary block deal, via selling 50.71m shares (2.6% of TSO) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> stock. </li>
<li>The deal will be an easy one to digest at only three days of three month ADV.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP) is looking to raise approximately US$800m through an accelerated secondary block deal, via selling 50.71m shares (2.6% of TSO) of Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) stock. 
The deal will be an easy one to digest at only three days of three month ADV.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Renesas Electronics Block - Smaller than Recent Deals but Still Likely Well Flagged

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11171:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP)</a> announced the sale of its position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a>. That's 50,706,800 shares.  </li>
<li>This is the third large block in four months (Renesas in November for 223mm shares, NEC and Hitachi in January 2024 for 123mm shares).</li>
<li>This is smaller, and reasonably well-flagged. Index demand is longer-dated.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP) announced the sale of its position in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP). That's 50,706,800 shares.  
This is the third large block in four months (Renesas in November for 223mm shares, NEC and Hitachi in January 2024 for 123mm shares).
This is smaller, and reasonably well-flagged. Index demand is longer-dated.


Renesas (6723) - YET ANOTHER Clean-Up Block Trade - This Time Mitsubishi Elec

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Renesas has acquired PCB electronic design company Altium and Gallium Nitride power device maker Transphorm. Its tender offer for Sequans Communications has been extended.</li>
<li>These are positive developments in our view, but sales and profit margins were down in 4Q of FY Dec-23 and are expected to decline this quarter as well.</li>
<li>On the other hand, inventory adjustment is proceeding and the share price has dropped 12.6% since last Tuesday. Buy on weakness for the longer term. </li>
</ul>


Renesas has acquired PCB electronic design company Altium and Gallium Nitride power device maker Transphorm. Its tender offer for Sequans Communications has been extended.
These are positive developments in our view, but sales and profit margins were down in 4Q of FY Dec-23 and are expected to decline this quarter as well.
On the other hand, inventory adjustment is proceeding and the share price has dropped 12.6% since last Tuesday. Buy on weakness for the longer term. 


Renesas (6723 JP): Two More Strategic Acquisitions

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Infineon Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Very large miss. Sept-24 (4Q FY24) EPS -30% below Consensus.  Dec-24 (1Q FY25) revenue guidance -16% below Consensus, operating profit at least -20% below Consensus.</li>
<li>End-Demand is slow, large inventory destocking will continue into 1H FY25, followed by “no hockey stick recovery” in 2H FY25. “Current visibility is very low”. </li>
<li>For FY25 (starting in Dec-24 quarter), Consensus assumes +17% revenue growth YoY, management guided for a slight decline. Adding some margins compression, FY25 Consensus Net Income  is ~25-30% too high.   </li>
</ul>


Very large miss. Sept-24 (4Q FY24) EPS -30% below Consensus.  Dec-24 (1Q FY25) revenue guidance -16% below Consensus, operating profit at least -20% below Consensus.
End-Demand is slow, large inventory destocking will continue into 1H FY25, followed by “no hockey stick recovery” in 2H FY25. “Current visibility is very low”. 
For FY25 (starting in Dec-24 quarter), Consensus assumes +17% revenue growth YoY, management guided for a slight decline. Adding some margins compression, FY25 Consensus Net Income  is ~25-30% too high.   


Infineon: Large Miss and Reset. Auto & Industrial Semi Is a Good Space for Shorts.

Japan

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

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Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)

KEPCO (9503 JP): Index Implications of US$3.5bn Primary + Secondary Offering

KEPCO is down 22.8% from the time of the announcement of the primary + secondary offering. The stock is now back to where it was at the start of...

Brian Freitas

Renesas Electronics Block - Smaller than Recent Deals but Still Likely Well Flagged

Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP) is looking to raise approximately US$800m through an accelerated secondary block deal, via selling 50.71m shares...

Ethan Aw

Renesas (6723) - YET ANOTHER Clean-Up Block Trade - This Time Mitsubishi Elec

Mitsubishi Electric is selling down their stake in Renesas. That is another 2.8% after nearly 7% sold in Jan24 and 12.4% by INCJ in Nov23. Should...

Travis Lundy

Renesas (6723 JP): Two More Strategic Acquisitions

The acquisition of Altium and Transphorm are positive for long-term growth. Sales and profits are still under pressure, but inventory adjustment is...

Scott Foster

Infineon: Large Miss and Reset. Auto & Industrial Semi Is a Good Space for Shorts.

On Consensus before earnings release, the stock trades at 12.5x FY25. After Consensus adjustment, the stock should be trading at ~16-17x FY25 EPS.

Nicolas Baratte

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