Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There are plenty of non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) in India where debt levels are exceptionally high like Infrastructure Leasing &amp; Financial Services (IL&amp;FS).  We also remind that fringe financials often reveal major frailties in a distressed environment, before mainstream banks. An additional concern is that there is regulatory or market pressures on NBFCs, which forces growth rates to moderate. This has important implications not only for the pack, but for those with radically high growth. This includes HDB Financial Services, which is consolidated within <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/558" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1">Hdfc Bank (HDFCB IN)</a>.

There are plenty of non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) in India where debt levels are exceptionally high like Infrastructure Leasing &amp; Financial Services (IL&amp;FS).  We also remind that fringe financials often reveal major frailties in a distressed environment, before mainstream banks. An additional concern is that there is regulatory or market pressures on NBFCs, which forces growth rates to moderate. This has important implications not only for the pack, but for those with radically high growth. This includes HDB Financial Services, which is consolidated within Hdfc Bank (HDFCB IN).

India – Finance Company Risks Abound Including for HDB Financial Services, Held by HDFC Bank

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

IndoStar Capital Finance Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27025" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27025:1">IndoStar Capital Finance Ltd (0607155D IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$275m in its upcoming IPO and proceeds will be used to increase capital base to meet future capital requirements.In this insight, we will examine the company's past performance, analyze the corporate and SME lending industry in which the company is currently operating in, and compare it to other listed NBFC peers. Last, but not least, we will also run the deal through our ECM framework.

IndoStar Capital Finance Ltd (0607155D IN) is looking to raise about US$275m in its upcoming IPO and proceeds will be used to increase capital base to meet future capital requirements.In this insight, we will examine the company's past performance, analyze the corporate and SME lending industry in which the company is currently operating in, and compare it to other listed NBFC peers. Last, but not least, we will also run the deal through our ECM framework.

IndoStar Capital Finance IPO Review - Loans and Advances Growth Stalled in 1H 2018

Value investor- India mid & small caps

Bhaskar Chakraborty

Equity Bottom-Up

PNB Housing Finance Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Borrowing costs are increasing at the short as well as long end as banking liquidity approaches neutral zone</li><li>Housing finance companies (HFCs) had rapidly increased the share of market borrowings in their liability profiles to benefit from lower rates. Now, with borrowings turning dear, we expect pressure on NIMs on increase over FY19 as many HFCs have significant ALM mismatches in the short end.</li><li>Intense competition reflecting in elevated repayment rates will further pressure NIMs</li><li>NBFC valuations that had reached lifetime high levels should compress in our view as earnings growth slows over FY19-20.</li></ul>

Borrowing costs are increasing at the short as well as long end as banking liquidity approaches neutral zoneHousing finance companies (HFCs) had rapidly increased the share of market borrowings in their liability profiles to benefit from lower rates. Now, with borrowings turning dear, we expect pressure on NIMs on increase over FY19 as many HFCs have significant ALM mismatches in the short end.Intense competition reflecting in elevated repayment rates will further pressure NIMsNBFC valuations that had reached lifetime high levels should compress in our view as earnings growth slows over FY19-20.

India Housing Fin Cos: At the Cusp of a De-Rating

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

India

LIC Housing Finance Limited provides housing finance services to individuals for purchase, construction, repair and renovation of new or existing flats and houses. The Company also provides finance on existing property for business, personal needs and gives loans to professionals for purchase, construction of clinics, nursing homes, diagnostic centers, and office space throughout India.

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LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)

India – Finance Company Risks Abound Including for HDB Financial Services, Held by HDFC Bank

There are plenty of non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) in India where debt levels are exceptionally high like Infrastructure Leasing &...

Daniel Tabbush

IndoStar Capital Finance IPO Review - Loans and Advances Growth Stalled in 1H 2018

IndoStar Capital Finance Ltd (0607155D IN) is looking to raise about US$275m in its upcoming IPO and proceeds will be used to increase capital base...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

India Housing Fin Cos: At the Cusp of a De-Rating

Borrowing costs are increasing at the short as well as long end as banking liquidity approaches neutral zone Housing finance companies (HFCs) had...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the...

Hemindra Hazari

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this...

Asia Advisors

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