Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>I was today-years-old when I learned that Europe has its own version of the Magnificent 7; the basket of giga-cap US tech companies comprised of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.</li><li>The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then it was just “FAAMG”) .</li><li><p>Namely, they were market leaders in the STOXX 600 Europe Index, they had grown to become an increasingly larger share of the market, and their earnings had far outpaced the broader index.</p><div></div></li></ul>

I was today-years-old when I learned that Europe has its own version of the Magnificent 7; the basket of giga-cap US tech companies comprised of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then it was just “FAAMG”) .Namely, they were market leaders in the STOXX 600 Europe Index, they had grown to become an increasingly larger share of the market, and their earnings had far outpaced the broader index.

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC expects the foundry, semiconductor, electronics, industrial technology, and global GDP to be $0.25 trillion, $1 trillion, $3 trillion, $12 trillion, and $145 trillion, respectively, in 2030F</li>
<li>Transistor technology is constantly evolving, and FinFET architecture will be followed by Nanosheet and others.</li>
<li>In the transition, the automotive market belongs to IDM companies, but the utility of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) could fall under Foundry territory.  </li>
</ul>


TSMC expects the foundry, semiconductor, electronics, industrial technology, and global GDP to be $0.25 trillion, $1 trillion, $3 trillion, $12 trillion, and $145 trillion, respectively, in 2030F
Transistor technology is constantly evolving, and FinFET architecture will be followed by Nanosheet and others.
In the transition, the automotive market belongs to IDM companies, but the utility of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) could fall under Foundry territory.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li><p>China’s mutual funds produced a mixed bag of performance last year. Publicly offered equity funds endured a second straight year of losses, grappling with a prolonged stock market rout. Bond funds, on the other hand, had a comparatively stellar year.</p></li><li><p>The uptick in bond fund flows fueled a shift in China’s asset management landscape, with mutual funds emerging as the most preferred asset management avenue, outstripping banking wealth management for the first time.</p></li><li><p>This shift reflects investors’ concerted efforts to navigate prevailing financial market volatility and mitigate risk in the country’s stock market, which has seen a protracted rout continue into this year.</p></li></ul>

China’s mutual funds produced a mixed bag of performance last year. Publicly offered equity funds endured a second straight year of losses, grappling with a prolonged stock market rout. Bond funds, on the other hand, had a comparatively stellar year.The uptick in bond fund flows fueled a shift in China’s asset management landscape, with mutual funds emerging as the most preferred asset management avenue, outstripping banking wealth management for the first time.This shift reflects investors’ concerted efforts to navigate prevailing financial market volatility and mitigate risk in the country’s stock market, which has seen a protracted rout continue into this year.

China’s Bond Funds Outshine Equity Peers Amid Stocks Slump 

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Despite the high-profile announcement of his attendance, his segment was less than 3 minutes long!</li>
<li>Intel's CEO alluded to a partnership with OpenAI and implied there's more to come yet there's been no public announcement of any such partnership. </li>
<li>Microsoft's commitment to use Intel's 18A is a vote of confidence in their foundry offering. Let's see how it plays out.</li>
</ul>


Despite the high-profile announcement of his attendance, his segment was less than 3 minutes long!
Intel's CEO alluded to a partnership with OpenAI and implied there's more to come yet there's been no public announcement of any such partnership. 
Microsoft's commitment to use Intel's 18A is a vote of confidence in their foundry offering. Let's see how it plays out.


Intel Snags Altman To Close Foundry Day Event

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul>
<li>Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta, collectively known as Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta, have recently announced their CY4Q23 results, unanimously claiming to increase investments in AI-related infrastructure from the current levels.</li>
<li>Per Bloomberg consensus, the capex of Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta will grow 22.6% in 2024, higher than prior forecasts of 16.6%.</li>
<li>This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.</li>
</ul>


Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta, collectively known as Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta, have recently announced their CY4Q23 results, unanimously claiming to increase investments in AI-related infrastructure from the current levels.
Per Bloomberg consensus, the capex of Hyperscaler 3 &amp; Meta will grow 22.6% in 2024, higher than prior forecasts of 16.6%.
This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.


Semi - Hyperscalers’ FY23 Results Review

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)

Europe's Magnificent Eleven

The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then...

Investment Talk

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

TSMC predicts significant growth in various industries by 2030F, with evolving transistor technology and potential shifts in market ownership for...

Patrick Liao

China’s Bond Funds Outshine Equity Peers Amid Stocks Slump

China’s mutual funds produced a mixed bag of performance last year. Publicly offered equity funds endured a second straight year of losses,...

Caixin Global

Intel Snags Altman To Close Foundry Day Event

Altman's segment lasted less than 3 minutes! Gelsinger implied partnership with OpenAI & hinted at more to come. Microsoft's plan to use Intel's...

William Keating

Semi - Hyperscalers’ FY23 Results Review

This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.

CMB International

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Europe's Magnificent Eleven

The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then...

Investment Talk

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

​TSMC predicts significant growth in various industries by 2030F, with evolving transistor technology and potential shifts in market ownership for...

Patrick Liao

China’s Bond Funds Outshine Equity Peers Amid Stocks Slump

China’s mutual funds produced a mixed bag of performance last year. Publicly offered equity funds endured a second straight year of losses,...

Caixin Global

Intel Snags Altman To Close Foundry Day Event

Altman's segment lasted less than 3 minutes! Gelsinger implied partnership with OpenAI & hinted at more to come. Microsoft's plan to use Intel's...

William Keating

Semi - Hyperscalers’ FY23 Results Review

This capex boost further confirms our perspective on the ongoing AI momentum into 2024, driven by strong demand for building computing capacity.

CMB International

TSMC predicts significant growth in various industries by 2030F, with evolving transistor technology and potential shifts in market ownership for...