Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a>'s subsidiary has <a href="https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20220930/k10013843881000.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reportedly</a> filed its application to become a Bank Holding Company, the definition being a company holding a 50% or greater stake in a bank.</li>
<li>The day after I last wrote, Shinsei <a href="https://www.shinseibank.com/corporate/en/news/pdf/pdf2022/221003_corporatenameLP_e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it had received approval to change its name to SBI Shinsei Bank as of 4 January 2023.</li>
<li>My expectation is the move above 50% happens sooner rather than later. And in that case, investors should think about their approach. Get your cowbells ready.</li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP)'s subsidiary has reportedly filed its application to become a Bank Holding Company, the definition being a company holding a 50% or greater stake in a bank.
The day after I last wrote, Shinsei announced it had received approval to change its name to SBI Shinsei Bank as of 4 January 2023.
My expectation is the move above 50% happens sooner rather than later. And in that case, investors should think about their approach. Get your cowbells ready.


Thinking Strategically About a Shinsei Position - Things To Do NOW

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infroneer-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35785:1" rel="noopener">INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP)</a> is the new name of the holding company which was comprised of Maeda Corporation, Maeda Road Construction, and Maeda Seisakusho.</li>
<li>Infroneer owns a 20% stake in smaller construction company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> through subsidiary Maeda Construction. It has launched a Tender Offer for the rest at a 28.5% premium.</li>
<li>This could get complicated. If you own, I would not sell at terms.</li>
</ul>



INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) is the new name of the holding company which was comprised of Maeda Corporation, Maeda Road Construction, and Maeda Seisakusho.
Infroneer owns a 20% stake in smaller construction company Toyo Construction (1890 JP) through subsidiary Maeda Construction. It has launched a Tender Offer for the rest at a 28.5% premium.
This could get complicated. If you own, I would not sell at terms.


Infroneer (5076 JP) Tender Offer for Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Could Get Funky

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katakura-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2007:1" rel="noopener">Katakura Industries (3001 JP)</a> MBO was launched in early November at a price which was too light but activist/long-time holder Oasis agreed to sell (with an up-and-out exception).  </li>
<li>Another would-be activist bought Oasis' shares at a premium to the Tender, encouraging hopes of a bump in the Tender Offer Price. </li>
<li>Yesterday, the bidder dashed those hopes, and today the shares fell, but not to the TOB Price. This has longer-term designs.</li>
</ul>


The Katakura Industries (3001 JP) MBO was launched in early November at a price which was too light but activist/long-time holder Oasis agreed to sell (with an up-and-out exception).  
Another would-be activist bought Oasis' shares at a premium to the Tender, encouraging hopes of a bump in the Tender Offer Price. 
Yesterday, the bidder dashed those hopes, and today the shares fell, but not to the TOB Price. This has longer-term designs.


Katakura Tender Offer Bump Now Looks Off. It Is Take-The-Loss or Hold-On-For-Later

David Blennerhassett

Equity Bottom-Up

Headquartered in Shanghai, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fu-shou-yuan-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18168:1" rel="noopener">Fu Shou Yuan International (1448 HK)</a> (FSY) is one of the largest funeral home companies worldwide with revenue of US$289mn in 2020.
China has high entry barriers for the death care industry as local governments enforce licensing caps. Coupled with a shortage of burial space, an increasing wealthy portion of the population, and the social stigma attached to the business, FSY enjoys high margins amid a relatively inelastic demand.
Shares are down 12% from the recent high in May. A sound investment or is this dead money?

Headquartered in Shanghai, Fu Shou Yuan International (1448 HK) (FSY) is one of the largest funeral home companies worldwide with revenue of US$289mn in 2020.
China has high entry barriers for the death care industry as local governments enforce licensing caps. Coupled with a shortage of burial space, an increasing wealthy portion of the population, and the social stigma attached to the business, FSY enjoys high margins amid a relatively inelastic demand.
Shares are down 12% from the recent high in May. A sound investment or is this dead money?

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): No Stiff Competition

Last week, the founder and Chairman of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eps-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13246:1" rel="noopener">EPS Holdings (4282 JP)</a> announced an MBO to take the company private. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/another-too-cheap-mbo-as-founder-takes-out-eps" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52208" rel="noopener">Another Too-Cheap MBO as Founder Takes Out EPS</a> I discussed the details of the MBO and Tender Offer and noted that it was "too cheap."The stock traded briefly through terms at the open of trading on Monday 31 May - the first day it could trade freely post-announcement. Today, it traded briefly through terms on a spike, settled back, and then rose into the close, as the two-day 5-minute chart below shows. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/210/483/original/Screenshot+2021-06-01+at+6.43.23+PM.png?1622544595" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="210483"></figure></section>Separately, I heard that there was some talk of "a higher price."I do not have the full story or the content but one has to be careful of the details.

Last week, the founder and Chairman of EPS Holdings (4282 JP) announced an MBO to take the company private. In Another Too-Cheap MBO as Founder Takes Out EPS I discussed the details of the MBO and Tender Offer and noted that it was "too cheap."The stock traded briefly through terms at the open of trading on Monday 31 May - the first day it could trade freely post-announcement. Today, it traded briefly through terms on a spike, settled back, and then rose into the close, as the two-day 5-minute chart below shows. Separately, I heard that there was some talk of "a higher price."I do not have the full story or the content but one has to be careful of the details.

EPS MBO Is Cheap. Too Cheap. But Be Careful Of Your Assumptions

Japan

KOSAIDO Co., Ltd. provides commercial printing services.  The Company also develops and markets computer software and provides information processing systems.

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Kosaido (7868 JP)

Thinking Strategically About a Shinsei Position - Things To Do NOW

Shinsei Bank may be in its last throes of independence. Shareholders usually do not get the chance to pester the Board before a price is...

Travis Lundy

Infroneer (5076 JP) Tender Offer for Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Could Get Funky

Infroneer Holdings - the former Maeda Corp/Maeda Road grouping - has launched a Tender to take out minorities in Toyo Construction at a 15-year...

Travis Lundy

Katakura Tender Offer Bump Now Looks Off. It Is Take-The-Loss or Hold-On-For-Later

The Katakura MBO looks like it will not get a bump to its too-light price despite a large holder having bought shares 9.3% through terms. That...

Travis Lundy

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): No Stiff Competition

Fu Shou Yuan is an attractive business: the largest player in China, high margins, high entry barriers, and relatively low capex needs. One to buy...

David Blennerhassett

EPS MBO Is Cheap. Too Cheap. But Be Careful Of Your Assumptions

The EPS Holding (8242 JP) MBO is too cheap. Lots too cheap. But it is NOT because management asked for JPY 2100/share. There are good reasons for...

Travis Lundy

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