'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/867/original/2020-11-25_11-14-58.png?1606270511" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173867"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>FOUR QUADRANTS</strong> - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-</p><ul>
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN BUYS</strong> - Companies with<strong> low</strong> Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN SELLS</strong> - Companies with <strong>high</strong> Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>TURNAROUNDS</strong> - Companies with<strong> high</strong> Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; <strong>low</strong> Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>EX-GROWTH</strong> - Companies with <strong>low</strong> Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; <strong>high</strong> Relative Price Scores</li>
</ul><p>In the two <strong>Contrarian</strong> quadrants, companies can remain outliers for extended periods, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener">JFE (5411 JP)</a>  in Buys, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> in Sells. The other quadrants see much more 'turnover' and van can offer profitable trading opportunities such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil(5938 JP)</a> in <strong>Turnarounds,</strong> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ariake-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4908:1" rel="noopener">Ariake Japan (2815 JP)</a> in the <strong>Ex-Growth</strong> quadrant.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/896/original/2020-11-25_12-25-57.png?1606274769" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173896"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/903/original/2020-11-25_12-56-49.png?1606276623" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173903"></figure></section><p><strong><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7b61jl02dh0pzno/2020-11-25_12-43-55.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CONTRARIAN BUYS</a> -</strong> In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Buys for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look into the other three quadrants before concluding with one '<em><strong>2021 High Conviction</strong></em>' recommendation. </p></section>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsFOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-

CONTRARIAN BUYS - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

CONTRARIAN SELLS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

TURNAROUNDS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores

EX-GROWTH - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores
In the two Contrarian quadrants, companies can remain outliers for extended periods, such as JFE (5411 JP)  in Buys, Lasertec (6920 JP) in Sells. The other quadrants see much more 'turnover' and van can offer profitable trading opportunities such as Lixil(5938 JP) in Turnarounds, and Ariake Japan (2815 JP) in the Ex-Growth quadrant.CONTRARIAN BUYS - In the DETAIL below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Buys for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look into the other three quadrants before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/159/original/2020-11-17_06-22-50.png?1605561785" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172159"></figure></section><p><strong>TAIL-ENDERS</strong> - The last twenty-seven companies to report this 'season' filed yesterday - fifteen of which are TTM loss-makers. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit (6098 JP)</a> was the only large-cap to report and will be covered below. An upcoming Insight will review Sector, Peer Group and company results in more detail. As a 'teaser', the fifteen-year Sector timeline reveals the contrasting fortunes of the <strong>Information Technology</strong> and <strong>Internet</strong> Sectors and the potential for relative outperformance from the <strong>Transporation &amp; Logistics</strong> Sector.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/160/original/2020-11-17_06-39-28.png?1605562783" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172160"></figure></section><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Our Results &amp; Revision Insight series will now take some time off and resume in early December.</strong></p></div>

TAIL-ENDERS - The last twenty-seven companies to report this 'season' filed yesterday - fifteen of which are TTM loss-makers. Recruit (6098 JP) was the only large-cap to report and will be covered below. An upcoming Insight will review Sector, Peer Group and company results in more detail. As a 'teaser', the fifteen-year Sector timeline reveals the contrasting fortunes of the Information Technology and Internet Sectors and the potential for relative outperformance from the Transporation &amp; Logistics Sector.Our Results &amp; Revision Insight series will now take some time off and resume in early December.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​16 - Recruit & The Tail-End Charlies

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/527/original/2020-11-14_11-37-16.png?1605390226" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171527"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>EUPHORIC UP VOLUME</strong> - In the wake of the US election, volume reached the highest levels since March this week and the 'breakout' of the deeply-flawed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 </a>index attracted some attention.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener"></a><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/528/original/2020-11-14_11-41-14.png?1605390632" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171528"></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"></figure></section><p><strong>LOWER HIGHS</strong> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Topix</a> has a few more false summits to overcome to return to the 1980s. A failure to rise above the 2019 high would result in a technically-unhelpful third 'lower high'. Meanwhile, the Yen continues to drift higher against the US dollar. A breach of the ¥100 level would not be supportive of further market upside.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/534/original/2020-11-15_07-35-54.png?1605393369" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171534"></figure></section><p><strong>RSI &gt;80</strong> - The 5-day Relative Strenght Index also rallied to above 80 for only the third time this year, and suggests a period of consolidation is ahead.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/538/original/2020-11-15_07-45-36.png?1605394410" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171538"></figure></section><p><strong>DISCONNECTED</strong> - Unusally, the RSI peak was not matched by a corresponding peak in the Toraku advance/decline ratio. This rally is narrowly concentrated and vulnerable to correction without a broader base of support. Absolute breadth has been steadily falling since the beginning of September and is a bearish signal for the market overall.</p><p><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/539/original/2020-11-14_11-30-48.png?1605394669" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171539"></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/540/original/2020-11-14_09-56-01.png?1605395057" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171540"></figure></section><p><strong>TOPIX SMALL LAGS AGAIN</strong> - Lastly, the spread between TOPIX and TOPIX Small has fallen to close to a six-month low suggesting an over-concentration in index 'heavyweights'.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/541/original/2020-11-15_08-10-28.png?1605395444" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171541"></figure></section><p><strong>NOT CHEAP</strong> - With only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit (6098 JP)</a> left to report among large caps, the mostly-interim results 'season' has concluded. Trailing operating income has reached a six-year low of ¥40 trillion and a further 10% decline is projected over the next four months. More optimistically, forecast Net Income is within ¥0.5 trillion of the trailing total and has risen by ¥1.8 trillion over the last week. Trailing and forecast multiples are just above 30 times and discount a return to a pre-COVID economy by the summer. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/582/original/2020-11-15_12-53-24.png?1605412418" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171582"></figure></section><p><strong>TURNING THE TIDE</strong> - As in the past, the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator bottomed out in sync (allowing for the reporting lag) with the bottoming out of trailing and forecast earnings momentum for our cap-weighted universe of listed companies. A forthcoming Insight will review the Sector, Peer Group and company highlights of the lastest results and revisions.</p><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Our best and worst pairing from Friday's announcements is IT security specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/change-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27414:1" rel="noopener">Change (3962 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus (7733 JP)</a>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/583/original/2020-11-15_13-06-16.png?1605413211" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171583"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/584/original/2020-11-15_13-07-40.png?1605413274" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171584"></figure></section><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
<hr>
</div>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>540 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 42% Positive / 12% Neutral / 46% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.3 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -7.7% Quarter YoY / -5.3% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.4ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 25%</p></li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>216 Annual • 29 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 46% Positive / 14% Neutral / 40% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 31% Positive / 17% Neutral / 52% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> +0.1 points</p></li>
</ul></div>
</div>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsEUPHORIC UP VOLUME - In the wake of the US election, volume reached the highest levels since March this week and the 'breakout' of the deeply-flawed Nikkei 225 index attracted some attention.LOWER HIGHS - Topix has a few more false summits to overcome to return to the 1980s. A failure to rise above the 2019 high would result in a technically-unhelpful third 'lower high'. Meanwhile, the Yen continues to drift higher against the US dollar. A breach of the ¥100 level would not be supportive of further market upside.RSI &gt;80 - The 5-day Relative Strenght Index also rallied to above 80 for only the third time this year, and suggests a period of consolidation is ahead.DISCONNECTED - Unusally, the RSI peak was not matched by a corresponding peak in the Toraku advance/decline ratio. This rally is narrowly concentrated and vulnerable to correction without a broader base of support. Absolute breadth has been steadily falling since the beginning of September and is a bearish signal for the market overall.TOPIX SMALL LAGS AGAIN - Lastly, the spread between TOPIX and TOPIX Small has fallen to close to a six-month low suggesting an over-concentration in index 'heavyweights'.NOT CHEAP - With only Recruit (6098 JP) left to report among large caps, the mostly-interim results 'season' has concluded. Trailing operating income has reached a six-year low of ¥40 trillion and a further 10% decline is projected over the next four months. More optimistically, forecast Net Income is within ¥0.5 trillion of the trailing total and has risen by ¥1.8 trillion over the last week. Trailing and forecast multiples are just above 30 times and discount a return to a pre-COVID economy by the summer. TURNING THE TIDE - As in the past, the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator bottomed out in sync (allowing for the reporting lag) with the bottoming out of trailing and forecast earnings momentum for our cap-weighted universe of listed companies. A forthcoming Insight will review the Sector, Peer Group and company highlights of the lastest results and revisions.• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pairing from Friday's announcements is IT security specialist Change (3962 JP) and Olympus (7733 JP).


DAILY STATS


540 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 42% Positive / 12% Neutral / 46% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.3 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -7.7% Quarter YoY / -5.3% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.4ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%


216 Annual • 29 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 46% Positive / 14% Neutral / 40% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 31% Positive / 17% Neutral / 52% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +0.1 points



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update & Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​13 - Euphoria!

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a>’s 2Q FY03/21 financial results were somewhat disappointing given that Tabelog’s recovery was slow and Kakaku.com not being able to maintain its higher 1Q growth. However, more recent data suggests that we could expect Tabelog to recover to the pre-pandemic level (or even better that) in 3Q FY03/21.</p>

Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)’s 2Q FY03/21 financial results were somewhat disappointing given that Tabelog’s recovery was slow and Kakaku.com not being able to maintain its higher 1Q growth. However, more recent data suggests that we could expect Tabelog to recover to the pre-pandemic level (or even better that) in 3Q FY03/21.

Kakaku.com: Heading Towards a Potential 3Q Recovery

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p style="text-align: justify;">Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1-year highs -- a positive risk-on signal. Stocks doing business in <strong>China, India, Taiwan</strong>, and <strong>South Korea </strong>continue to be a major focus when it comes to individual stock recommendations.</p>

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1-year highs -- a positive risk-on signal. Stocks doing business in China, India, Taiwan, and South Korea continue to be a major focus when it comes to individual stock recommendations.

Japan

Recruit Holdings Co. Ltd. operates information providing services in human resource, housing, bridal, travel, restaurants, beauty, automobiles, and education and more. The company also operate staffing services and advertising business.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results & Revision Score (RRS), we can assign...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/16 - Recruit & The Tail-End Charlies

TAIL-ENDERS - The last twenty-seven companies to report this 'season' filed yesterday - fifteen of which are TTM loss-makers

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update & Results & Revisions 11/13 - Euphoria!

EUPHORIC UP VOLUME - In the wake of the US election, volume reached the highest levels since March this week and the 'breakout' of the deeply...

Campbell Gunn

Kakaku.com: Heading Towards a Potential 3Q Recovery

Kakaku’s 2Q financial results were somewhat disappointing given that Tabelog’s recovery was slow and Kakaku.com not being able to maintain its...

Supun Walpola

Emerging Markets Breaking Out

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results & Revision Score (RRS), we can assign...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​16 - Recruit & The Tail-End Charlies

TAIL-ENDERS - The last twenty-seven companies to report this 'season' filed yesterday - fifteen of which are TTM loss-makers

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update & Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​13 - Euphoria!

EUPHORIC UP VOLUME - In the wake of the US election, volume reached the highest levels since March this week and the 'breakout' of the deeply...

Campbell Gunn

Kakaku.com: Heading Towards a Potential 3Q Recovery

Kakaku’s 2Q financial results were somewhat disappointing given that Tabelog’s recovery was slow and Kakaku.com not being able to maintain its...

Supun Walpola

Emerging Markets Breaking Out

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/16 - Recruit & The Tail-End Charlies

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update & Results & Revisions 11/13 - Euphoria!