2016 US Elections Scenario One: Hillary Clinton Wins
A US election fought under moderately favourable economic conditions, with a Republican electorate divided and openly unhappy with its...
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ANIMAL SPIRITS Update: OPEC Fuels Base Effect - Oil, Inflation & The Fed, Yields, Financials and EM
Executive Summary OPEC production cut plan supports our macro thesis of an oil-led, inflation expectations uplift. Our original WTI peak base...
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ANIMAL SPIRITS™ REPORT: Greater China View - China "Goldilocks", HK "Revival" & Taiwan "Bond-Proxy"
Investment ConclusionsMacro, Index and Sector Views Our macro baseline scenario is positive on emerging markets (EM) in Q4, 2016. We see...
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ANIMAL SPIRITS™ UPDATE: Japan Equity Market Outlook - BOJ, Fed & The Value Trap
Executive Summary This week, the Fed has behaved consistently with our macro roadmap by not raising rates yet but running the US economy "hot". Two...
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US Stock Market Seasonality: Shemitah Redux, The Afterparty
Almost exactly a year ago I wrote a piece on stock market seasonality titled Stock Market Seasonality - Januaries, SuperBowls, Third Years,...
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