Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2022 is likely to be a very good year for semiconductors, with 6% revenue growth following outstanding 2021 growth of ~22%.</li>
<li>Demand is solid, and shortages are driving prices higher.  Since revenues are demand times price, all signs are positive.</li>
<li>The factors that caused the last collapse, in 2019, are not in place this time, indicating that a downturn is very unlikely.</li>
</ul>


2022 is likely to be a very good year for semiconductors, with 6% revenue growth following outstanding 2021 growth of ~22%.
Demand is solid, and shortages are driving prices higher.  Since revenues are demand times price, all signs are positive.
The factors that caused the last collapse, in 2019, are not in place this time, indicating that a downturn is very unlikely.


2022 High Conviction - Modest Semiconductor Growth

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It has been an interesting year and short interest has varied a lot across countries, sectors and stocks. We look at changes in Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.</li>
<li>Shorts have soared in Korea following the resumption of short selling, while short interest has increased in the other countries too.</li>
<li>Ping An Insurance and BYD had the biggest short covering, while China Merchants Bank saw the largest increase in shorts over the year.</li>
</ul>


It has been an interesting year and short interest has varied a lot across countries, sectors and stocks. We look at changes in Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.
Shorts have soared in Korea following the resumption of short selling, while short interest has increased in the other countries too.
Ping An Insurance and BYD had the biggest short covering, while China Merchants Bank saw the largest increase in shorts over the year.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>At the end of each week, reportable net short positions are filed with the SFC. Aggregated figures are published 1 week after the reference date. </li>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yanzhou-coal-mining-company-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited H (1171 HK)</a></strong> has seen its short interest increase 9.7 ppts in 2021. <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-goldwind-science-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10112:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Goldwind Science (2208 HK)</a></strong>'s short interest declined 12.4 ppts.</li>
<li>Sector-Specific, short interest in Financial stocks declined. There has been an increase in short interest in both the Industrial and Materials sectors. </li>
</ul>


At the end of each week, reportable net short positions are filed with the SFC. Aggregated figures are published 1 week after the reference date. 

Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited H (1171 HK) has seen its short interest increase 9.7 ppts in 2021. Xinjiang Goldwind Science (2208 HK)'s short interest declined 12.4 ppts.
Sector-Specific, short interest in Financial stocks declined. There has been an increase in short interest in both the Industrial and Materials sectors. 


Hong Kong's Short Interest: Year In Review

<ul>
<li>October semiconductor revenues have been released setting a new record</li>
<li>The semiconductor market, whose revenues have been following a trend since 1996, are currently well above that trend</li>
<li>The ingredients for a collapse are not developing.  The current trend seems destined to continue for at least another couple of quarters, but probably longer.</li>
</ul>


October semiconductor revenues have been released setting a new record
The semiconductor market, whose revenues have been following a trend since 1996, are currently well above that trend
The ingredients for a collapse are not developing.  The current trend seems destined to continue for at least another couple of quarters, but probably longer.


October Semi Revenues Released: Even Farther Above Trend

<ul>
<li>WSTS released a forecast for 26% growth in 2021 and 9% in 2022 </li>
<li>Prior WSTS forecasts have been overheated in up years and too modest in down years</li>
<li>If today's demand bubble continues, sub-10% 2022 growth is likely.  Otherwise, there could be a collapse.</li>
</ul>


WSTS released a forecast for 26% growth in 2021 and 9% in 2022 
Prior WSTS forecasts have been overheated in up years and too modest in down years
If today's demand bubble continues, sub-10% 2022 growth is likely.  Otherwise, there could be a collapse.


WSTS Semi Forecast Very Bullish for 2021-22, but Is It Realistic?

China

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

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Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

2022 High Conviction - Modest Semiconductor Growth

Can today's semiconductor revenue growth continue, or will the market undergo another collapse? Objective Analysis calls for 6% growth, and shows...

Jim Handy

Asia: The Year in Shorts

There have been large increases and decreases in short interest on stocks across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan over the year. We look at the biggest...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong's Short Interest: Year In Review

There will be further short selling in the market which is not captured under the reporting guidelines. However, what is reported by the SFC does...

David Blennerhassett

October Semi Revenues Released: Even Farther Above Trend

October semiconductor revenues set a record once again, making the 2021 semiconductor market one to remember. A collapse appears unlikely in the...

Jim Handy

WSTS Semi Forecast Very Bullish for 2021-22, but Is It Realistic?

The semiconductor market is on a tear, and WSTS forecasts that next year will see solid growth. This Insight examines the likelihood that 2022...

Jim Handy

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