Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Novatek had reported a flattish sales outlook in 1Q22, and all of revenue, GM and OPM were expected to NT$35.8~36.8bn, 48~51% and 34~37% respectively, while revenue was at -1.92~+0.82% QoQ. </li>
<li>We think the high inventory days of supply chain is giving a good chance to expand into China foundry for production, especially SMIC.</li>
<li>We think Novatek would maintain its solid dividend policy for EPS NT$63.87 in 2021, and it’s pay-out ratio is 80% in the past.</li>
</ul>


Novatek had reported a flattish sales outlook in 1Q22, and all of revenue, GM and OPM were expected to NT$35.8~36.8bn, 48~51% and 34~37% respectively, while revenue was at -1.92~+0.82% QoQ. 
We think the high inventory days of supply chain is giving a good chance to expand into China foundry for production, especially SMIC.
We think Novatek would maintain its solid dividend policy for EPS NT$63.87 in 2021, and it’s pay-out ratio is 80% in the past.


Novatek (3034.TT): A Good Year Ahead, and Likely to Expand to SMIC for Wafer Foundry

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>SMIC had reported a very exciting outlook in 1Q22, and both of revenue and GM are rising up to US$1,817~1,848.7mn and 36~38% respectively, which is growing at 15~17% QoQ.</li>
<li>SMIC plans to expand capacity in Shenzhen, Tianjin and Beijing in 2022 because of the unprecedently foundry demands. The Capex plan is ~US$5bn in 2022, which's lager than UMC’s US$3bn.</li>
<li>China is still 3-4 generations behind TSMC, which is a big gap to catch up with.</li>
</ul>


SMIC had reported a very exciting outlook in 1Q22, and both of revenue and GM are rising up to US$1,817~1,848.7mn and 36~38% respectively, which is growing at 15~17% QoQ.
SMIC plans to expand capacity in Shenzhen, Tianjin and Beijing in 2022 because of the unprecedently foundry demands. The Capex plan is ~US$5bn in 2022, which's lager than UMC’s US$3bn.
China is still 3-4 generations behind TSMC, which is a big gap to catch up with.


SMIC (0981.HK): Raising CapEx to $5bn in 2022. Exciting News, or Fierce Competition Ahead?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance should see the slow crawl toward 80 index members continue. We should get up to 68-70 members in March. Reaching 80 by June is unlikely.</li>
<li>High probability inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International (6969 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Currently, index turnover due to capping/float changes is low which will allow more stocks to be added to the index. Increase in the turnover will result in fewer changes.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance should see the slow crawl toward 80 index members continue. We should get up to 68-70 members in March. Reaching 80 by June is unlikely.
High probability inclusions are Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Smoore International (6969 HK), Nongfu Spring (9633 HK), JD Health (6618 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK).
Currently, index turnover due to capping/float changes is low which will allow more stocks to be added to the index. Increase in the turnover will result in fewer changes.


HSI Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): The Slow Crawl Continues

<ul>
<li>We think the chance for GlobalWafers mergence case to have the final approval could be high. Even if it finally failed, the raw wafer supply should be full until 2024.</li>
<li>This deal was granted by seven governments and organizations already. And it is still under review of Chinese and Japanese governments.</li>
<li>The deal will not change the worldwide raw wafer supply status, especially such supply tightness. To our understanding, the secrets to achieve success are cost reduction and resource management mostly.</li>
</ul>


We think the chance for GlobalWafers mergence case to have the final approval could be high. Even if it finally failed, the raw wafer supply should be full until 2024.
This deal was granted by seven governments and organizations already. And it is still under review of Chinese and Japanese governments.
The deal will not change the worldwide raw wafer supply status, especially such supply tightness. To our understanding, the secrets to achieve success are cost reduction and resource management mostly.


Globalwafers (6488.TT): Stock Price Can Go Higher Even If Siltronic Mergence Case Failed

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>November semiconductor revenues set a record for the highest shipment month in the history of the industry</li>
<li>Year-To-Date revenues and unit shipments, excluding December, are still higher than any full year in the industry's history</li>
<li>There is plenty of room for this to continue, barring a global economic meltdown</li>
</ul>


November semiconductor revenues set a record for the highest shipment month in the history of the industry
Year-To-Date revenues and unit shipments, excluding December, are still higher than any full year in the industry's history
There is plenty of room for this to continue, barring a global economic meltdown


November Semiconductors Once Again Set Records

China

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

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Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Novatek (3034.TT): A Good Year Ahead, and Likely to Expand to SMIC for Wafer Foundry

In 1Q22, Novatek reported revenue, GM and OPM expected to NT$35.8~36.8bn, 48~51% and 34~37% respectively, which revenue was at -1.92~+0.82% QoQ. We...

Patrick Liao

SMIC (0981.HK): Raising CapEx to $5bn in 2022. Exciting News, or Fierce Competition Ahead?

SMIC plans to expand capacity in Shenzhen, Tianjin and Beijing in 2022 because the unprecedently foundry demands. The Capex plan is ~US$5bn in...

Patrick Liao

HSI Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): The Slow Crawl Continues

We are at 64 index members currently & are unlikely to reach the target of 80 members by the June rebal. We highlight 10 stocks that could be added...

Brian Freitas

Globalwafers (6488.TT): Stock Price Can Go Higher Even If Siltronic Mergence Case Failed

The chance for GlobalWafers to have the final approval could be high. Even if it finally failed, the raw wafer supply should be full until 2024.

Patrick Liao

November Semiconductors Once Again Set Records

The semiconductor market once again set records in November, with 2021 revenues and unit shipments out-stripping all prior record years in its...

Jim Handy

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