Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: iPhone 16 sees negative initial reception in China (-/+/+)</li>
<li>981 HK: SenseTime announces 54,000 GPU cluster, likely supplied by Huawei (+)</li>
<li>1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: Tesla officially announced that it will launch FSD in China in the first quarter of 2025.(///////)</li>
</ul>


AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: iPhone 16 sees negative initial reception in China (-/+/+)
981 HK: SenseTime announces 54,000 GPU cluster, likely supplied by Huawei (+)
1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: Tesla officially announced that it will launch FSD in China in the first quarter of 2025.(///////)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/1519 HK/ZTO US

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Guolian Securities Co Ltd H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Miserable economic data continues. Trade geopol is mixed. Territorial geopol getting more serious. SOUTHBOUND gross volumes up, but not high. </li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND rebounded cutting its weekly net sell streak at one. ETFs again a net sell. NORTHBOUND net data is not not released on a daily/weekly basis; only quarterly.</li>
<li>As expected (with AH 20d Premia returns at multi-year highs 3wks ago), AH Premia fell slightly, narrow premia falling more than wide premia. I continue to expect more H-vs-A gains.</li>
</ul>


Miserable economic data continues. Trade geopol is mixed. Territorial geopol getting more serious. SOUTHBOUND gross volumes up, but not high. 
SOUTHBOUND rebounded cutting its weekly net sell streak at one. ETFs again a net sell. NORTHBOUND net data is not not released on a daily/weekly basis; only quarterly.
As expected (with AH 20d Premia returns at multi-year highs 3wks ago), AH Premia fell slightly, narrow premia falling more than wide premia. I continue to expect more H-vs-A gains.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 30 Aug 2024): SB/NB Volumes Down, NB Net Now Impossible to Track

<ul>
<li>1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US: Xiaomi’s Africa smartphone sales outgrow market in 2Q24 (+/+/-)</li>
<li>XPEV US:Xpeng Motors' revenue in the second quarter was in line with our expectations, and its losses were greater than our expectations(/)</li>
<li>1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US:In the 33rd week of 2024, the delivery of new energy vehicles by Xiaomi fluctuated, Leapmotor and Li were strong, and NIO remained weak  (/////////)</li>
</ul>


1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US: Xiaomi’s Africa smartphone sales outgrow market in 2Q24 (+/+/-)
XPEV US:Xpeng Motors' revenue in the second quarter was in line with our expectations, and its losses were greater than our expectations(/)
1211 HK/1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US:In the 33rd week of 2024, the delivery of new energy vehicles by Xiaomi fluctuated, Leapmotor and Li were strong, and NIO remained weak  (/////////)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/XPEV US/1211 HK/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/002352 CH/2618 HK

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC Foundry 2.0 more than doubles its addressable market and resets its market share to 28%, down from the ~60% share it has long enjoyed in the "traditional" foundry market</li>
<li>The lion's share of this new market will come from IDM, a combination of increased outsourcing (e.g. Intel) and new JV deals (e.g. Germany and Japan)</li>
<li>Foundry 2.0 reflects the reality of how the semi industry is evolving and it's the polar opposite of Intel's IDM 2.0 </li>
</ul>


TSMC Foundry 2.0 more than doubles its addressable market and resets its market share to 28%, down from the ~60% share it has long enjoyed in the "traditional" foundry market
The lion's share of this new market will come from IDM, a combination of increased outsourcing (e.g. Intel) and new JV deals (e.g. Germany and Japan)
Foundry 2.0 reflects the reality of how the semi industry is evolving and it's the polar opposite of Intel's IDM 2.0 


TSMC Foundry 2.0: Strategic Shift Or Brand Tinkering?

<ul>
<li>LKNCY US: The drink "Tengyun American" coffee package jointly launched by Luckin and "Black Myth: Wukong" game was sold out in its first day （/）</li>
<li>1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume grew ~29% y-o-y (+)</li>
<li>Consumer Industry update:China's Retail Industry Prosperity Index moderate rebound in August, mainly from offline retail recovery. (+)</li>
</ul>


LKNCY US: The drink "Tengyun American" coffee package jointly launched by Luckin and "Black Myth: Wukong" game was sold out in its first day （/）
1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume grew ~29% y-o-y (+)
Consumer Industry update:China's Retail Industry Prosperity Index moderate rebound in August, mainly from offline retail recovery. (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1519 HK/ZTO US/BZ US/1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US

China

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

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Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/1519 HK/ZTO US

Negative initial reception for iPhone 16 in China, SenseTime announces large GPU cluster, and Tesla to launch FSD in China by Q1 2025.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

A/H Premium Tracker (To 30 Aug 2024): SB/NB Volumes Down, NB Net Now Impossible to Track

Weak volumes (but better) amidst pretty poor economic data and very quiet volumes globally. H/A spreads have been quite stable for two weeks. AH...

Travis Lundy

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/XPEV US/1211 HK/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/002352 CH/2618 HK

Xiaomi's smartphone sales in Africa outperform market, Xpeng Motors' Q2 revenue meets but losses exceed expectations, new energy vehicle...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

TSMC Foundry 2.0: Strategic Shift Or Brand Tinkering?

TSMC Foundry 2.0 more than doubles its addressable market and resets its market share to 28%, down from the ~60% share it has long enjoyed in the...

William Keating

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1519 HK/ZTO US/BZ US/1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US

Luckin and "Black Myth: Wukong" game's coffee collaboration sells out in first day, parcel volume grows 29% y-o-y, China's Retail Industry sees...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/1519 HK/ZTO US

​Negative initial reception for iPhone 16 in China, SenseTime announces large GPU cluster, and Tesla to launch FSD in China by Q1 2025.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

A/H Premium Tracker (To 30 Aug 2024): SB/NB Volumes Down, NB Net Now Impossible to Track

Weak volumes (but better) amidst pretty poor economic data and very quiet volumes globally. H/A spreads have been quite stable for two weeks. AH...

Travis Lundy

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US/XPEV US/1211 HK/NIO US/LI US/LKNCY US/002352 CH/2618 HK

​Xiaomi's smartphone sales in Africa outperform market, Xpeng Motors' Q2 revenue meets but losses exceed expectations, new energy vehicle...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

TSMC Foundry 2.0: Strategic Shift Or Brand Tinkering?

TSMC Foundry 2.0 more than doubles its addressable market and resets its market share to 28%, down from the ~60% share it has long enjoyed in the...

William Keating

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1519 HK/ZTO US/BZ US/1810 HK/981 HK/AAPL US

​Luckin and "Black Myth: Wukong" game's coffee collaboration sells out in first day, parcel volume grows 29% y-o-y, China's Retail Industry sees...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Negative initial reception for iPhone 16 in China, SenseTime announces large GPU cluster, and Tesla to launch FSD in China by Q1 2025.

Xiaomi's smartphone sales in Africa outperform market, Xpeng Motors' Q2 revenue meets but losses exceed expectations, new energy vehicle...

Luckin and "Black Myth: Wukong" game's coffee collaboration sells out in first day, parcel volume grows 29% y-o-y, China's Retail Industry sees...