'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/035/original/2020-03-15_07-07-04.png?1584223644" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123035"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RELATIVE VALUE</strong> - Since the recent peak of December 17th, the TOPIX Index has fallen by 28% in 56 trading days. The<strong> -0.57% daily average rate of decline</strong> over the last three months has only been exceeded on 32 of the 10,142 days since March 1979, eight of which occurred in 1990, with the balance in 2008. From the January 23rd 2018 peak of 1,911, the index has fallen by 34% and is within 3% of our target (expressed in terms of Total Market Value ex REITs) outlined in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-market-update-opportunity-knocks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37049" rel="noopener">Opportunity Knocks?</a> Insight published on 1st March. The market is also within 5% of the TOPIX low of 1,196 of 12th February 2016, which we expect will provide some short-term support. Although Japan and many other developed world economies are now in recession, markets do not fall in a straight line forever. <strong>Japanese equities now offer attractive relative value and should outperform over the coming months.</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/034/original/2020-03-15_06-53-01.png?1584222882" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123034"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/036/original/2020-03-15_07-18-49.png?1584224347" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123036"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/037/original/2020-03-15_07-23-55.png?1584224666" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123037"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME</strong> - Most bear markets in Japan have coincided with periods of Yen strength, including the 29% 2015/16 decline when the currency strengthened by 19%. Repeating the rate of decline analysis above, in US dollar terms there have only been <strong>four days in the last twenty-eight years</strong> with worse 56-day rates of decline - all in October 2008. <strong>All four days provided fearless investors with excellent medium-term gains.</strong> Although this increase in market volatility may be less welcome for international investors in Japanese equities, the impact of the <em>Covid-19 recession</em> on the Japanese economy will be more muted. Also, the 48% collapse in the oil price year-to-date will help offset the negative impact of the October 2019 increase in the consumption tax and the decline in export sales in Europe. Lastly, we would suggest that the much-derided net cash that Japanese corporates 'hoard' for rainy days such as these, should delay the need for increases in credit lines. Our recent series of Insights on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Who’s Swimming Naked?</a> cover those companies to which this does not apply. <strong>Overall</strong>, <strong>for Japan at least, it is different this time.</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/039/original/File%202020-03-15%203%2024%2020.jpeg?1584225464" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123039"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/040/original/File%202020-03-15%203%2026%2031.jpeg?1584225508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123040"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/041/original/File%202020-03-15%207%2044%2021.jpeg?1584225894" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123041"></figure><p></p><div class="content-caption">Source • Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina (2020) - "Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Research and Statistics". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]</div><p><strong>CONTAINING COVID</strong> - According to <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus" target="_blank" rel="noopener">data</a> from the peerless <strong>Global Change Data Lab</strong> at Oxford University, Japan has, (except for the unfortunate passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess cruise ship), managed to contain Covid-19 better than any other large nation. While, there is some scepticism that this outcome could be a result of under-testing to avoid cancellation of the Olympic Games; nevertheless, the recorded cases fatality rate in a country with an above-average age profile is surprisingly low.  Currently, the daily increase in active Covid-19 cases in Japan is less than one hundred and was only seventeen on March 15th. The cumulative number of confirmed Covid-19 fatalities is 24, of which two occurred yesterday. The confirmed number of cases per 100,000 population is 0.65, which compares with 19.5 in South Korea, 16.5 in Italy and 12 in Iran. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/038/original/2020-03-15_07-34-05.png?1584225268" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123038"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • oann.com</div><p><strong>KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON -</strong> Last night's press conference by Prime Minister Abe was in stark contrast to the sombre tone to those of Prime Minister Johnson of the United Kingdom and the tragicomic ramblings of the US President. Having received the legislative powers to declare a state of emergency, Abe declined at this stage to invoke any social restrictions beyond the already-announced school closures. As in the UK, sporting authorities are cancelling events or holding them <em>sine populo</em>. Japan's long obsession with cleanliness, the culture of bowing as a greeting and readiness to conform have served to 'flatten the curve'. The increased focus on such practices has also resulted in a very low incidence of seasonal influenza this year. Japan also has significantly lower levels of air pollution compared to China, Iran and northern Italy, a  factor that has become a factor in fatality rates, especially amongst the elderly. Although internal travel and restaurant patronage have sharply declined in Japan, shops are open and are well-stocked (except for now-rationed paper products) and 'free movement' with slightly-greater-than-normal social distancing is the norm. Whatever the motivations may be regarding the Olympics and Abe's legacy, Japan is unwilling to force the economy into the economic depression that would be the result of prolonged lockdown. </p><p><strong>A COVID-19 WORLD</strong> - This 'keep-calm-carry-on' model of a Covid-19-prevalent world (as is also seen in Singapore and Taiwan) will eventually have to be applied globally. These countries rapid transition to the new 'Covid-19 world' should result in better short-term outcomes for these economies.  The UK is currently being criticised for attempting to follow a version of this model, and may eventually have to go against the advice of its epidemiologists. Fortunately, for now, the general public are giving the UK government the benefit of the doubt. There will be a sharp divergence in the medium-term economic outlooks for countries taking these two 'paths' with those that are over-reacting paying a heavy price. While this does not bode well for the Eurozone, East Asia, including Japan, should emerge in better shape in this new 'viral' world.      </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review a number of our favourite market indicators, recent sector performance and make some recommendations as to how to harness this<strong> once-in-a-decade</strong> opportunity to buy high-quality Japanese companies at attractive prices.</p></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsRELATIVE VALUE - Since the recent peak of December 17th, the TOPIX Index has fallen by 28% in 56 trading days. The -0.57% daily average rate of decline over the last three months has only been exceeded on 32 of the 10,142 days since March 1979, eight of which occurred in 1990, with the balance in 2008. From the January 23rd 2018 peak of 1,911, the index has fallen by 34% and is within 3% of our target (expressed in terms of Total Market Value ex REITs) outlined in our Opportunity Knocks? Insight published on 1st March. The market is also within 5% of the TOPIX low of 1,196 of 12th February 2016, which we expect will provide some short-term support. Although Japan and many other developed world economies are now in recession, markets do not fall in a straight line forever. Japanese equities now offer attractive relative value and should outperform over the coming months.Source • Japan AnalyticsIT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME - Most bear markets in Japan have coincided with periods of Yen strength, including the 29% 2015/16 decline when the currency strengthened by 19%. Repeating the rate of decline analysis above, in US dollar terms there have only been four days in the last twenty-eight years with worse 56-day rates of decline - all in October 2008. All four days provided fearless investors with excellent medium-term gains. Although this increase in market volatility may be less welcome for international investors in Japanese equities, the impact of the Covid-19 recession on the Japanese economy will be more muted. Also, the 48% collapse in the oil price year-to-date will help offset the negative impact of the October 2019 increase in the consumption tax and the decline in export sales in Europe. Lastly, we would suggest that the much-derided net cash that Japanese corporates 'hoard' for rainy days such as these, should delay the need for increases in credit lines. Our recent series of Insights on Who’s Swimming Naked? cover those companies to which this does not apply. Overall, for Japan at least, it is different this time.Source • Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina (2020) - "Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Research and Statistics". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]CONTAINING COVID - According to data from the peerless Global Change Data Lab at Oxford University, Japan has, (except for the unfortunate passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess cruise ship), managed to contain Covid-19 better than any other large nation. While, there is some scepticism that this outcome could be a result of under-testing to avoid cancellation of the Olympic Games; nevertheless, the recorded cases fatality rate in a country with an above-average age profile is surprisingly low.  Currently, the daily increase in active Covid-19 cases in Japan is less than one hundred and was only seventeen on March 15th. The cumulative number of confirmed Covid-19 fatalities is 24, of which two occurred yesterday. The confirmed number of cases per 100,000 population is 0.65, which compares with 19.5 in South Korea, 16.5 in Italy and 12 in Iran. Source • oann.comKEEP CALM AND CARRY ON - Last night's press conference by Prime Minister Abe was in stark contrast to the sombre tone to those of Prime Minister Johnson of the United Kingdom and the tragicomic ramblings of the US President. Having received the legislative powers to declare a state of emergency, Abe declined at this stage to invoke any social restrictions beyond the already-announced school closures. As in the UK, sporting authorities are cancelling events or holding them sine populo. Japan's long obsession with cleanliness, the culture of bowing as a greeting and readiness to conform have served to 'flatten the curve'. The increased focus on such practices has also resulted in a very low incidence of seasonal influenza this year. Japan also has significantly lower levels of air pollution compared to China, Iran and northern Italy, a  factor that has become a factor in fatality rates, especially amongst the elderly. Although internal travel and restaurant patronage have sharply declined in Japan, shops are open and are well-stocked (except for now-rationed paper products) and 'free movement' with slightly-greater-than-normal social distancing is the norm. Whatever the motivations may be regarding the Olympics and Abe's legacy, Japan is unwilling to force the economy into the economic depression that would be the result of prolonged lockdown. A COVID-19 WORLD - This 'keep-calm-carry-on' model of a Covid-19-prevalent world (as is also seen in Singapore and Taiwan) will eventually have to be applied globally. These countries rapid transition to the new 'Covid-19 world' should result in better short-term outcomes for these economies.  The UK is currently being criticised for attempting to follow a version of this model, and may eventually have to go against the advice of its epidemiologists. Fortunately, for now, the general public are giving the UK government the benefit of the doubt. There will be a sharp divergence in the medium-term economic outlooks for countries taking these two 'paths' with those that are over-reacting paying a heavy price. While this does not bode well for the Eurozone, East Asia, including Japan, should emerge in better shape in this new 'viral' world.      In the DETAIL section below, we shall review a number of our favourite market indicators, recent sector performance and make some recommendations as to how to harness this once-in-a-decade opportunity to buy high-quality Japanese companies at attractive prices.

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE • Relative Value: Short-Term Buy On Japanese Equities

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>Recent press in Korea has highlighted that the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) investigation into alleged accounting fraud at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kt-g-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9320:1">KT&amp;G Corporation (033780 KS)</a> may be concluded in the next few months. Short interest has already started to pick up as the stock moves lower.</p><p>In this Insight, we take a look at KT&amp;G's history, at the accounting issue in question, at recent precedents in Korea, and analyse the impact on the stock if it gets labelled as an administrative issue or is subject to a trading halt and a delisting review, and finally recommend a trade.</p>

Recent press in Korea has highlighted that the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) investigation into alleged accounting fraud at KT&amp;G Corporation (033780 KS) may be concluded in the next few months. Short interest has already started to pick up as the stock moves lower.In this Insight, we take a look at KT&amp;G's history, at the accounting issue in question, at recent precedents in Korea, and analyse the impact on the stock if it gets labelled as an administrative issue or is subject to a trading halt and a delisting review, and finally recommend a trade.

KT&G: Where There Is Smoke, There May Be Fire

Equity Bottom-Up

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/966/original/2020-02-20_07-38-18.png?1582151941" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118966"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>MINISTRY OF INFORMATION</strong> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12434:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu (4324 JP)</a>, which was founded in 1901, had a long and less-than-illustrious history as a government propaganda outlet before 1945, which has been airbrushed out of the corporate history. Since the formation in 1955 of the Liberal Democratic Party, the LDP has been Dentsu's most important client. This close relationship has continued into the Internet era with the establishment of the party's 'Team Truth' initiative.  Dentsu has long held a virtual lock on advertising on broadcast media in Japan and plays a key role as a promoter/ organiser of major sporting and social events.</p>
<p><strong>TAINTED</strong> - In recent years, Dentsu's image has been tainted with allegations of bribery in connection with the awarding of the 2020 Olympic Games to Tokyo and the unfortunate suicide of a 24-year old female employee driven to 'death by overwork' which forced the LDP to change some of the labour laws that allowed the excessive unpaid 'overtime' practices that are rife in this industry in Japan.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/968/original/2020-02-20_07-44-21.png?1582152290" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118968"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • worldatlas.com</div>
<p><strong>GLOBAL FOOTPRINT</strong> - Following the acquisition of the Aegis Group in 2012 and numerous other blot-on deals, Dentsu is now the world's fifth-largest advertising company and boasts fo operating in over 145 countries and regions with 60% of revenues generated outside Japan and 44,069 employees based overseas - 70% of total headcount. The new digital era has been less than kind to Dentsu's business model, which focuses heavily on traditional media formats, especially free-to-air television broadcasting in Japan. At the same time, the newly-acquired businesses have less secure positions in their core markets compared to that of Dentsu in Japan. With the industry facing several existential challenges, the timing of Dentsu's global expansion was far from optimal. It will require considerable management flexibility to transition to a model more appropriate for the mobile age.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/970/original/2020-02-20_08-07-28.png?1582153678" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118970"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Company</div>
<p><strong>TEAMING COMPANY</strong> - To meet these challenges Dentsu aims to transform itself into a new 'dentsu group' - a 'Teaming Company' with three strategic priorities:- </p>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Growth</strong> in new markets utilising the groups 'diverse capabilities' to create 'integrated growth solutions'</li>
<li>Offering 'socially-driven <strong>Value</strong>' to society and consumers in response to 'social challenges'</li>
<li>Creating a '<strong>Team</strong>ing Platform' based on development collaboration and integration to allow employees to gain a 'deeper understanding'. </li>
</ul>
<p><strong>STRATEGY REVIEW</strong> - Dentsu has been acquiring a myriad of digital media companies in the hope that one or more of them might offer a 'magic bullet'. As a result, they are becoming increasingly dependent on data and data suppliers that will come under increasing regulatory scrutiny base on concerns over privacy. Terrestrial broadcasting still accounts for almost half of revenue and this 'bread-and-butter' business is rapidly becoming 'toast'. Similarly, their dependence on shiny creative best-guess intuition is increasingly outdated. Significant cultural gaps remain between the lifetime-employment-oriented domestic operation and the international business, which has only one board representative and one other Executive Officer. Dentsu has an exciting future as a consulting and marketing communications hybrid. At present, much of the former is given away for free, while the latter is spread over hundreds of business units. Perhaps the model of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a> where JTI is a separate business run by no-Japanese executives based outside Japan might be a solution; however, the implied loss of 'control' would be a step too far given the company's antecedents.  </p>
<p><strong>BELOW BOOK</strong> - It remains to be seen if these platitudes will be enough to improve Dentsu's current business model. In the short-term, the company is retrenching in several formerly key markets such as China and has implemented draconian cost-cutting in its domestic operations. Although the stock is now trading below book value and has been on od the worst-performing large caps in Japan since peaking in July 2015, we find little reason for optimism. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>In the DETAIL section below, we review Dentsu's business and financial performance, returns and cash flow and suggest an appropriate valuation using a residual income valuation model. We also offer some suggestions as to how the company might finally address its 21st-century challenges.</strong></p>
</div>


Source • Japan Analytics
MINISTRY OF INFORMATION - Dentsu (4324 JP), which was founded in 1901, had a long and less-than-illustrious history as a government propaganda outlet before 1945, which has been airbrushed out of the corporate history. Since the formation in 1955 of the Liberal Democratic Party, the LDP has been Dentsu's most important client. This close relationship has continued into the Internet era with the establishment of the party's 'Team Truth' initiative.  Dentsu has long held a virtual lock on advertising on broadcast media in Japan and plays a key role as a promoter/ organiser of major sporting and social events.
TAINTED - In recent years, Dentsu's image has been tainted with allegations of bribery in connection with the awarding of the 2020 Olympic Games to Tokyo and the unfortunate suicide of a 24-year old female employee driven to 'death by overwork' which forced the LDP to change some of the labour laws that allowed the excessive unpaid 'overtime' practices that are rife in this industry in Japan.

Source • worldatlas.com
GLOBAL FOOTPRINT - Following the acquisition of the Aegis Group in 2012 and numerous other blot-on deals, Dentsu is now the world's fifth-largest advertising company and boasts fo operating in over 145 countries and regions with 60% of revenues generated outside Japan and 44,069 employees based overseas - 70% of total headcount. The new digital era has been less than kind to Dentsu's business model, which focuses heavily on traditional media formats, especially free-to-air television broadcasting in Japan. At the same time, the newly-acquired businesses have less secure positions in their core markets compared to that of Dentsu in Japan. With the industry facing several existential challenges, the timing of Dentsu's global expansion was far from optimal. It will require considerable management flexibility to transition to a model more appropriate for the mobile age.

Source • Company
TEAMING COMPANY - To meet these challenges Dentsu aims to transform itself into a new 'dentsu group' - a 'Teaming Company' with three strategic priorities:- 


Growth in new markets utilising the groups 'diverse capabilities' to create 'integrated growth solutions'
Offering 'socially-driven Value' to society and consumers in response to 'social challenges'
Creating a 'Teaming Platform' based on development collaboration and integration to allow employees to gain a 'deeper understanding'. 

STRATEGY REVIEW - Dentsu has been acquiring a myriad of digital media companies in the hope that one or more of them might offer a 'magic bullet'. As a result, they are becoming increasingly dependent on data and data suppliers that will come under increasing regulatory scrutiny base on concerns over privacy. Terrestrial broadcasting still accounts for almost half of revenue and this 'bread-and-butter' business is rapidly becoming 'toast'. Similarly, their dependence on shiny creative best-guess intuition is increasingly outdated. Significant cultural gaps remain between the lifetime-employment-oriented domestic operation and the international business, which has only one board representative and one other Executive Officer. Dentsu has an exciting future as a consulting and marketing communications hybrid. At present, much of the former is given away for free, while the latter is spread over hundreds of business units. Perhaps the model of Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) where JTI is a separate business run by no-Japanese executives based outside Japan might be a solution; however, the implied loss of 'control' would be a step too far given the company's antecedents.  
BELOW BOOK - It remains to be seen if these platitudes will be enough to improve Dentsu's current business model. In the short-term, the company is retrenching in several formerly key markets such as China and has implemented draconian cost-cutting in its domestic operations. Although the stock is now trading below book value and has been on od the worst-performing large caps in Japan since peaking in July 2015, we find little reason for optimism. 

In the DETAIL section below, we review Dentsu's business and financial performance, returns and cash flow and suggest an appropriate valuation using a residual income valuation model. We also offer some suggestions as to how the company might finally address its 21st-century challenges.


4324 🇯🇵 Dentsu - The Teaming Company

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/740/original/2020-02-07_03-39-22.png?1581019080" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116740"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTO THE 'RED'</strong> - As predicted, our Results Score dipped into negative territory yesterday, declining by 56 basis points to -0.21. Of the 65 large-cap results, only ten companies had positive qoq changes in Results Score, while seventeen saw double-digit declines. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> did well to limit its quarterly year-on-year changes in Revenue and OP to -3%, and they are forecasting similar declines against TTM numbers for the full year. The Forecast/Revision Score added six basis points driven primarily by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido (4911 JP)</a> overly optimistic initial forecast for FY2020. 'Mr Market' meanwhile is content to bid up share prices to close to the recent highs, and 8% below the January 2018 peak, when the Results Score was 7.54. </p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• SECTOR TIMELINE •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/741/original/2020-02-07_03-45-05.png?1581019946" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116741"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SECTOR TIMELINE</strong> - The majority of Sectors saw lower Results &amp; Revision Scores yesterday, with <strong>Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco</strong> being the exception due to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>'s stable topline performance and better-than-expected 2020 forecast. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13613:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)</a> decline into the red at the OP level and full-year downward revision took the <strong>Machinery</strong> Sector lower, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seibu-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:458:1" rel="noopener">Seibu (9024 JP)</a> was the negative driver for <strong>Multi-Industry</strong>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terumo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6708:1" rel="noopener">Terumo (4543 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olympus-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:356:1" rel="noopener">Olympus (7733 JP)</a> fuelled the decline in <strong>Healthcare</strong> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujifilm-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16353:1" rel="noopener">Fujifilm (4901 JP)</a> did the same for <strong>Technology Hardware</strong>. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsINTO THE 'RED' - As predicted, our Results Score dipped into negative territory yesterday, declining by 56 basis points to -0.21. Of the 65 large-cap results, only ten companies had positive qoq changes in Results Score, while seventeen saw double-digit declines. Toyota Motor (7203 JP) did well to limit its quarterly year-on-year changes in Revenue and OP to -3%, and they are forecasting similar declines against TTM numbers for the full year. The Forecast/Revision Score added six basis points driven primarily by Shiseido (4911 JP) overly optimistic initial forecast for FY2020. 'Mr Market' meanwhile is content to bid up share prices to close to the recent highs, and 8% below the January 2018 peak, when the Results Score was 7.54. • SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - The majority of Sectors saw lower Results &amp; Revision Scores yesterday, with Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco being the exception due to Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)'s stable topline performance and better-than-expected 2020 forecast. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) decline into the red at the OP level and full-year downward revision took the Machinery Sector lower, while Seibu (9024 JP) was the negative driver for Multi-Industry. Terumo (4543 JP) and Olympus (7733 JP) fuelled the decline in Healthcare and Fujifilm (4901 JP) did the same for Technology Hardware. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 6th February ▲ 2914 4911 6406 ▼ 9024 4901 7951

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Smoore International Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<p>Smoore Tech is a leading e-cigarette and component manufacturer in China. The company was delisted from the venture board in China, the NEEQ, and is seeking a listing in Hong Kong to raise up to USD 400 million. In our previous note, we have looked at the company's background, its brief financials, and its shareholders. We are impressed by the company's stellar growth in the past and its technology-driven business. </p><p>We also look at the latest regulatory landscape on e-cigarettes in the company’s main market, the US and China. We think the FDA’s deadline for pre-marketing approval in 2020, even if pushed forward, will not present a major problem to the company’s blue-chip clients. Looking at the development in China, we also believe that the e-cigarette will likely be regulated in a similar manner as it is in the US. There might be short term hiccups but a regulatory framework that benefits the general public is long term positive for the e-cigarette industry.</p><div><h2>Our previous coverage on Smoore International</h2></div><div><ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smoore-tech-pre-ipo-6y-and-1h2019-financials-show-technology-driven-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Smoore Tech (麦克韦尔) Pre-IPO: 6Y and 1H2019 Financials Show Technology Driven Growth</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smoore-tech-ipo-hidden-e-cigarette-player-behind-the-feelm-technology" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Smoore Tech (麦克韦尔) IPO: Hidden E-Cigarette Player Behind the FEELM Technology</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smoore-pre-ipo-on-the-ground-visit-revealed-five-risks-in-china-market" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Smoore (麦克韦尔) Pre-IPO: On-The-Ground Visit Revealed Five Risks in China Market</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smoore-intl-pre-ipo-tripling-capacity-in-three-years" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Smoore Intl (思摩尔国际) Pre-IPO: Tripling Capacity in Three Years</a></li>
</ul></div>

Smoore Tech is a leading e-cigarette and component manufacturer in China. The company was delisted from the venture board in China, the NEEQ, and is seeking a listing in Hong Kong to raise up to USD 400 million. In our previous note, we have looked at the company's background, its brief financials, and its shareholders. We are impressed by the company's stellar growth in the past and its technology-driven business. We also look at the latest regulatory landscape on e-cigarettes in the company’s main market, the US and China. We think the FDA’s deadline for pre-marketing approval in 2020, even if pushed forward, will not present a major problem to the company’s blue-chip clients. Looking at the development in China, we also believe that the e-cigarette will likely be regulated in a similar manner as it is in the US. There might be short term hiccups but a regulatory framework that benefits the general public is long term positive for the e-cigarette industry.Our previous coverage on Smoore International
Smoore Tech (麦克韦尔) Pre-IPO: 6Y and 1H2019 Financials Show Technology Driven Growth
Smoore Tech (麦克韦尔) IPO: Hidden E-Cigarette Player Behind the FEELM Technology
Smoore (麦克韦尔) Pre-IPO: On-The-Ground Visit Revealed Five Risks in China Market
Smoore Intl (思摩尔国际) Pre-IPO: Tripling Capacity in Three Years


Smoore Intl (思摩尔国际) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on E-Cig Regulation

Japan

Ajinomoto Co., Inc. produces and sells a variety of food products, including seasonings, edible oils, processed foods, beverages, and dairy products.  The Company also develops and manufactures pharmaceuticals, amino acids, and specialty chemicals.

Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. produces beer and other beverages including non-alcoholic drinks. The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd manufacture and sells beverages and food products worldwide. The company is a part of Suntory Holdings ltd.

KIKKOMAN CORPORATION produces and markets soy sauce, alcoholic beverages, and other food products.  The Company has marketing rights for Del Monte brand products outside of the United States.  Kikkoman also operates restaurants in Japan and other countries.

Kirin Holdings Company, Limited produces beer, soft drinks, food products, whisky, and pharmaceuticals.  The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

YAMAZAKI BAKING CO., LTD. produces baking foods including bread, pastry, and cake.  The Company operates nationwide sales network.  YAMAZAKI BAKING also operates franchised cafeterias and convenience stores.

NISSIN FOODS HOLDINGS CO.,LTD. produces instant noodle and processed food products.  The Company also develops pharmaceuticals.  NISSIN FOODS operates production facilities in overseas countries including Hong Kong, India, U.S., Singapore, and other countries.

MEIJI Holdings Co., Ltd. is the holding company established by reorganization of Meiji Seika Pharma & Meiji Corp.  The company manages subsidiaries engaging in production & sales of confectionary, milk, dairy products, and pharmaceuticals.

TOYO SUISAN KAISHA, LTD. purchases, processes, and sells seafood.  The Company also manufactures instant noodles, processed foods, fish paste, and frozen food products under Maru-chan brand.

YAKULT HONSHA CO., LTD produces and sells fermented milk products, soft drinks and food products.  The Company also manufactures pharmaceutical and cosmetic products.  Through its subsidiary, the professional baseball team, Tokyo Yakult Swallows is owned and managed.

ITC Limited, a member of BAT Group of UK, is a holding company, which has a diversified presence in Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards & Specialty Papers, Packaging, Agri Business, Packaged Foods & Confectionery, Branded Apparel, Greeting Cards and other FMCG products.

British American Tobacco P.L.C. operates as a holding company for a group of companies that manufactures, markets, and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products including cigars and roll-your-own tobacco.

Imperial Brands PLC operates as a consumer goods company. The Company manufactures, markets, and sells cigarettes, cigars, pipe and smokeless tobacco, snus, e-cigarettes, and other tobacco products, as well as logistics business. Imperial Brands serves customers worldwide.

Altria Group, Inc. is a holding company.  The Company, through subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products, including cigars and pipe tobacco.  Altria holds an interest in a brewery company.

Swedish Match AB manufactures and markets smokeless tobacco products. The Company offers products such as snus, moist snuff, and chewing tobacco. Swedish Match also manufactures and markets machine made cigars as well as matches and lighters.

PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk manufactures hand rolled and machine-rolled clove-blended cigarettes. The Company distributes its products in the domestic and international market. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops properties.

KT&G Corporation processes, produces, and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, manufactures ginseng products such as red ginseng tea and herbal medicines.  KT&G is also involved in real estate development of its former factory sites.

Smoore International Holdings Limited offering vaping technology solutions with advanced research and development technology. The Company manufactures and produces closed system vaping devices, self branded open system vaping devices, vaping components, and other products. Smoore International Holdings markets its products throughout Hong Kong.

Japan Tobacco, Inc. operates as an tobacco product company. The Company manufactures, markets and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products internationally. Japan Tobacco is also engaged in pharmaceutical and food businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE • Relative Value: Short-Term Buy On Japanese Equities

RELATIVE VALUE - Since the recent peak of December 17th, the TOPIX Index has fallen by 28% in 56 trading days. The -0.57% daily average rate of...

Campbell Gunn

KT&G: Where There Is Smoke, There May Be Fire

Recent press in Korea has highlighted that the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) investigation into alleged accounting fraud at KT&G...

Brian Freitas

4324 🇯🇵 Dentsu - The Teaming Company

MINISTRY OF INFORMATION - Dentsu (4324 JP), which was founded in 1901, had a long and less-than-illustrious history as a government propaganda...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 6th February ▲ 2914 4911 6406 ▼ 9024 4901 7951

INTO THE 'RED' - As predicted, our Results Score dipped into negative territory yesterday, declining by 56 basis points to -0.21. Of the 65...

Campbell Gunn

Smoore Intl (思摩尔国际) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on E-Cig Regulation

Smoore Tech is a leading e-cigarette and component manufacturer in China. The company was delisted from the venture board in China, the NEEQ, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)