Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

Philip Morris International / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Despite being in a declining industry, Philip Morris set new highs in net revenues, earnings, and cash flows in the year driven by increased overall volumes as a result of strong organic growth.</li><li>The company’s organic net revenue per unit growth has demonstrated its shift in the business mix away from the core cigarettes business.</li><li>Despite continued shortages in device supplies in the second half of 2021, IQOS user growth reached an estimated 21.2 million total users.</li></ul>

Despite being in a declining industry, Philip Morris set new highs in net revenues, earnings, and cash flows in the year driven by increased overall volumes as a result of strong organic growth.The company’s organic net revenue per unit growth has demonstrated its shift in the business mix away from the core cigarettes business.Despite continued shortages in device supplies in the second half of 2021, IQOS user growth reached an estimated 21.2 million total users.

Philip Morris: Financial & Price Forecasts

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Legal and regulatory changes have spawned cannabis companies, focused on cannabis-based medical and recreational products and the development of new breeds of crop </li>
<li>In Cannabis innovations <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philip-morris-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13328:1" rel="noopener">Philip Morris International (PM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canopy-growth-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25083:1" rel="noopener">Canopy Growth (WEED CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jazz-pharmaceuticals-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15881:1" rel="noopener">Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ US)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merck-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1130:1" rel="noopener">Merck &amp; Co Inc. (MRK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> lead</li>
<li>In overall plant-based extracts innovations <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jazz-pharmaceuticals-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15881:1" rel="noopener">Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eid-parry-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6925:1" rel="noopener">Eid Parry India (EID IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abbott-laboratories" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11987:1" rel="noopener">Abbott Laboratories (ABT US), </a>Indena, Mars Incorporated, and Liveleaf are the leaders.</li>
</ul>


Legal and regulatory changes have spawned cannabis companies, focused on cannabis-based medical and recreational products and the development of new breeds of crop 
In Cannabis innovations Philip Morris International (PM US), Canopy Growth (WEED CN), Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ US)Merck &amp; Co Inc. (MRK US) and Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) lead
In overall plant-based extracts innovations Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ US), Eid Parry India (EID IN), Abbott Laboratories (ABT US), Indena, Mars Incorporated, and Liveleaf are the leaders.


Insights from Data Mining Technical Publications - Plant Extracts Including from Cannabis

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tilray-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27402:1" rel="noopener">Tilray Inc (TLRY US)</a> hit 52-week low amid delay to pass a federal marijuana legalization bill in the U.S., falling cannabis prices and intense competition among cannabis producers.</li>
<li>Tilray’s valuation looks attractive keeping in mind upcoming (Jan-Mar 2022) marijuana legalization at the federal level in the United States and acquisition of Breckenridge Distillery and MedMen.</li>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tilray-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27402:1" rel="noopener">Tilray Inc (TLRY US)</a> will report strong earnings for Q2’FY22 on January 10th next year and see interest from Big Tobacco to enter high-growth marijuana business.</li>
</ul>


Shares of Tilray Inc (TLRY US) hit 52-week low amid delay to pass a federal marijuana legalization bill in the U.S., falling cannabis prices and intense competition among cannabis producers.
Tilray’s valuation looks attractive keeping in mind upcoming (Jan-Mar 2022) marijuana legalization at the federal level in the United States and acquisition of Breckenridge Distillery and MedMen.
We expect Tilray Inc (TLRY US) will report strong earnings for Q2’FY22 on January 10th next year and see interest from Big Tobacco to enter high-growth marijuana business.


Opportunity To Secure a Strategic Investment From a Big Tobacco Company?

<ul><li>Philip Morris delivered a solid performance in the second quarter of 2021 which was driven by the continued strong growth of IQOS.</li><li>This alone made up 13% of their volumes and approximately 30% of their adjusted net revenues compared to 24% in the same quarter of 2020.</li><li>The combustible net revenues increased by 4% in the second quarter on an organic basis, reflecting a partial volume rebound compared to the weak performance in 2020 which was largely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.</li></ul>

Philip Morris delivered a solid performance in the second quarter of 2021 which was driven by the continued strong growth of IQOS.This alone made up 13% of their volumes and approximately 30% of their adjusted net revenues compared to 24% in the same quarter of 2020.The combustible net revenues increased by 4% in the second quarter on an organic basis, reflecting a partial volume rebound compared to the weak performance in 2020 which was largely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Philip Morris International Inc. - Investment Thesis

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Allocations in Consumer Staples stocks are at decade-long lows.  Average fund weights among active Global managers stand at 7.65% following an aggressive slump after the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020.The spread between Consumer Discretionary weights and Consumer Staples weights in active Global portfolios is close to it's all-time wides, but is turning lower after peaking in April this this year.What stands out in our data is the cutting back of Consumer Staples allocations by Growth investors, with a number of high profile stocks cut from Aggressive Growth portfolios since last 2019 (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reckitt-benckiser-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22105:1" rel="noopener">Reckitt Benckiser (RB/ LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/colgate-palmolive-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15093:1" rel="noopener">Colgate Palmolive Co (CL US),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anheuser-busch-inbev-sa-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:865:1" rel="noopener">Anheuser Busch Inbev Sa/Nv (ABI BB)</a> )For the Consumer Staples sector to see a turnaround, perhaps growth, or at least the perception of growth needs to return for these investors.

Allocations in Consumer Staples stocks are at decade-long lows.  Average fund weights among active Global managers stand at 7.65% following an aggressive slump after the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020.The spread between Consumer Discretionary weights and Consumer Staples weights in active Global portfolios is close to it's all-time wides, but is turning lower after peaking in April this this year.What stands out in our data is the cutting back of Consumer Staples allocations by Growth investors, with a number of high profile stocks cut from Aggressive Growth portfolios since last 2019 (Reckitt Benckiser (RB/ LN), Colgate Palmolive Co (CL US),Anheuser Busch Inbev Sa/Nv (ABI BB) )For the Consumer Staples sector to see a turnaround, perhaps growth, or at least the perception of growth needs to return for these investors.

Global Consumer Staples: Allocations at Rock Bottom as Growth Investors Flee

United States

Altria Group, Inc. is a holding company.  The Company, through subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products, including cigars and pipe tobacco.  Altria holds an interest in a brewery company.

Vector Group Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes in the United States.  The Company is also involved in the real estate business through its subsidiary.

Universal Corporation is an independent leaf tobacco merchant.  The Company has additional operations in agri-products and the distribution of lumber and building products.  Universal sells primarily flue-cured and burley tobaccos to manufacturers located throughout the world.

Turning Point Brands, Inc. provides tobacco products. The Company offers a wide range of products, including moist snuff, loose leaf chewing tobacco, cigarette papers, make-your-own cigar wraps and cigar smoking tobacco, cigars, and liquid and tobacco vapor products.

Anheuser-Busch InBev NV brews beer.  The Company manufactures ale, lager, stout, and bitter beer.  Anheuser-Busch InBev owns brands that are both nationally and internationally prominent.  The Company has production plants in Europe, the Americas, and Asia.

The Coca-Cola Company manufactures, markets, and distributes soft drink concentrates and syrups.  The Company also distributes and markets juice and juice-drink products.  Coca-Cola distributes its products to retailers and wholesalers in the United States and internationally.

The Kraft Heinz Company provides food services. The Company offers foods including ketchup, sauces, meals, snacks, and other food products.

PepsiCo, Inc. operates worldwide beverage, snack and food businesses. The Company manufactures or uses contract manufacturers, markets and sells a variety of grain-based snacks, carbonated and non-carbonated beverages and foods in countries throughout the world.

Monster Beverage Corporation is a holding company based in Corona, California. The Company, through its consolidated subsidiaries, markets and distributes energy drinks worldwide.

Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. markets, sells, manufactures, and distributes non-alcoholic beverages.  The Company provides refreshments, including sparkling waters, juices, isotonics, teas, and sodas.  Coca-Cola Enterprises operates internationally.

ITC Limited, a member of BAT Group of UK, is a holding company, which has a diversified presence in Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards & Specialty Papers, Packaging, Agri Business, Packaged Foods & Confectionery, Branded Apparel, Greeting Cards and other FMCG products.

Japan Tobacco, Inc. operates as an tobacco product company. The Company manufactures, markets and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products internationally. Japan Tobacco is also engaged in pharmaceutical and food businesses.

British American Tobacco P.L.C. operates as a holding company for a group of companies that manufactures, markets, and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products including cigars and roll-your-own tobacco.

Imperial Brands PLC operates as a consumer goods company. The Company manufactures, markets, and sells cigarettes, cigars, pipe and smokeless tobacco, snus, e-cigarettes, and other tobacco products, as well as logistics business. Imperial Brands serves customers worldwide.

Swedish Match AB manufactures and markets smokeless tobacco products. The Company offers products such as snus, moist snuff, and chewing tobacco. Swedish Match also manufactures and markets machine made cigars as well as matches and lighters.

PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk manufactures hand rolled and machine-rolled clove-blended cigarettes. The Company distributes its products in the domestic and international market. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops properties.

KT&G Corporation processes, produces, and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, manufactures ginseng products such as red ginseng tea and herbal medicines.  KT&G is also involved in real estate development of its former factory sites.

Smoore International Holdings Limited offering vaping technology solutions with advanced research and development technology. The Company manufactures and produces closed system vaping devices, self branded open system vaping devices, vaping components, and other products. Smoore International Holdings markets its products throughout Hong Kong.

Philip Morris International Inc., through its subsidiaries, affiliates and their licensees, produces, sells, distributes, and markets a wide range of branded cigarettes and tobacco products in markets outside of the United States of America.  The Company's portfolio comprises both international and local brands.

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Philip Morris International (PM US)

Philip Morris: Financial & Price Forecasts

Despite being in a declining industry, Philip Morris set new highs in net revenues, earnings, and cash flows in the year driven by increased...

Baptista Research

Insights from Data Mining Technical Publications - Plant Extracts Including from Cannabis

Herbal medicinal and nutraceutical extracts are seen as instruments to maintain health and treat some conditions. Cannabis, in particular, will see...

Pyari Menon

Opportunity To Secure a Strategic Investment From a Big Tobacco Company?

We believe Tilray is a promising investment in global cannabis industry keeping in mind strong interest from Big Tobacco and upcoming marijuana...

Andrei Zakharov

Philip Morris International Inc. - Investment Thesis

Philip Morris delivered a solid performance in the second quarter of 2021 which was driven by the continued strong growth of IQOS. This alone made...

Baptista Research

Global Consumer Staples: Allocations at Rock Bottom as Growth Investors Flee

Allocations in Consumer Staples stocks are at decade-long lows. Average fund weights among active Global managers stand at 7.65% following an...

Steven Holden

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