Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our checks primary done over North of India suggest a stable to improving rural environment </li>
<li>There is a sense of aggression in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> is well placed to grow volumes &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> is expected to be a steady performer. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dabur-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1" rel="noopener">Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)'</a> s image at the distributor level is quite shocking and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a>'s products are more prone to volatility. </li>
</ul>


Our checks primary done over North of India suggest a stable to improving rural environment 
There is a sense of aggression in ITC Ltd (ITC IN), Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) is well placed to grow volumes &amp; Nestle India (NEST IN) is expected to be a steady performer. 

Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)' s image at the distributor level is quite shocking and Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)'s products are more prone to volatility. 


India Channel Insight #35 | ITC, Britannia, Nestle India, Dabur, Marico

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today is the last day of the review period for the June review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a>. Changes become effective at the close on 17 June. </li>
<li>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd-a-dvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:349:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> is a close add on sector balance.</li>
<li>The impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">DRRD IN</a> will be higher than on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">TTMT IN</a>, in terms of days of ADV to trade and days of delivery volume that needs to change hands.</li>
</ul>


Today is the last day of the review period for the June review of the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX). Changes become effective at the close on 17 June. 
We see Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) and Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) replacing Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN). Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) is a close add on sector balance.
The impact on DRRD IN will be higher than on TTMT IN, in terms of days of ADV to trade and days of delivery volume that needs to change hands.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors Should Replace Dr. Reddy; Hindalco Is Close

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd-a-dvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:349:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN)</a> are likely inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P SENSEX INDEX</a> in June while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> could be deleted.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> could be added depending on sector balance while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> is a close delete on liquidity.</li>
<li>The inclusion of Tata Motors could result in the discount on the DVR line <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd-a-dvr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:349:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN)</a> narrowing versus the common shares <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) and Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) are likely inclusions to the S&amp;P SENSEX INDEX in June while Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) could be deleted.

Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) could be added depending on sector balance while Nestle India (NEST IN) is a close delete on liquidity.
The inclusion of Tata Motors could result in the discount on the DVR line Tata Motors DVR (TTMT/A IN) narrowing versus the common shares Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN). 


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview (June): Down to the Wire

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-wilmar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34763:1" rel="noopener">Adani Wilmar (6596700Z IN)</a> raised around US$500m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>Anchor quality wasn't the greatest, in our view, and were the firm to trade towards its peers' trailing average, it would imply a 21.8% downside potential. </li>
<li>In this note we will talk about the subscription levels and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Adani Wilmar (6596700Z IN) raised around US$500m in its India IPO.
Anchor quality wasn't the greatest, in our view, and were the firm to trade towards its peers' trailing average, it would imply a 21.8% downside potential. 
In this note we will talk about the subscription levels and trading dynamics.


Adani Wilmar IPO Trading - Listing Sentiment Isn’t the Greatest

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-wilmar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34763:1" rel="noopener">Adani Wilmar (6596700Z IN)</a> is looking to raise up to US$482m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>In our view, we doubt that the firm would be able to trade close to its blue chip FMCG peers, given its small FMCG component combined with overall weaker margins.</li>
<li>In this note, we will look at updates since our last note, undertake a peer comparison, and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Adani Wilmar (6596700Z IN) is looking to raise up to US$482m in its upcoming India IPO.
In our view, we doubt that the firm would be able to trade close to its blue chip FMCG peers, given its small FMCG component combined with overall weaker margins.
In this note, we will look at updates since our last note, undertake a peer comparison, and share our thoughts on valuation.


Adani Wilmar IPO - Has the Capabilities to Thrive but Needs to Prove Itself to Trade Higher

India

Britannia Industries Limited manufactures bakery products such as biscuits, bread, cakes and rusks.  The Company also manufactures and exports soybean products, cashew kernels, marine products, and general merchandise items.

Tata Consumer Products Limited produces food and beverage products. The Company manufactures, sells, and exports tea, coffee, salt, oil, pulses, spices, and food products. Tata Consumer Products serves customers worldwide.

Ruchi Soya Industries Limited manufactures soybean oil, vanaspati vegetable fat, texturized soya protein, soya flour and other soya products.  The Group has also developed Palm stearin and Palm olein cooking oils.

Hatsun Agro Products Limited manufactures skimmed milk powder, skimmed milk powd er blends, instant skimmed milk powder, whole milk powder, and full cream milk p owder.

Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation Ltd. is a diversified manufacturing and trading company. The Company owns plantations of tea, coffee, cardamam, cocoa, rubber and palm oil in different countries like India, Thailand, Indonesia and Tanzania. Bombay Burmah manufactures "Formica" brand of laminates and it also manufactures precision springs, analytical & precision balances and asbestos cement.

Godrej Agrovet Limited (GAVL) operates as an animal feed and agribusiness company. The Company specializes in poultry processing, animal feed, oil palm plantations, crop protection, agri inputs, and dairy products. GAVL serves customers worldwide.

Zydus Wellness Ltd. processes dairy products.  The Company produces margarine, butter, and cheese.

Shree Renuka Sugars Limited is an integrated manufacturing company with a focus on sugar, distillery products and ethanol. The Company also generates power which is used for captive consumption besides being sold externally.

LT Foods Limited processes food products. The Company produces and distributes brown, white, steamed, parboiled, organic, quick cooking, and flavored rice. LT Foods serves customers worldwide.

Triveni Engineering & Industries Limited conducts operations in sugar manufacturing and engineered-to-order mechanical equipment.

Triveni Engineering & Industries (TRE IN)

The Kraft Heinz Company provides food services. The Company offers foods including ketchup, sauces, meals, snacks, and other food products.

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. produces milk, powdered milk, ice cream, and other dairy products.  The Company also produces frozen food and noodles.

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

Muyuan Foodstuff Company Limited breeds and sells boars and commodity pigs. The Company's main products include boars, and commodity pigs.

Uni-President Enterprises Corp. manufactures, processes, and markets instant noodles, dairy products, frozen foods, soft drinks, soy sauces, canned pickles, meat products, animal feeds, aquatic feeds, edible oils, bread, cakes, and desserts.  The Company also operates vending machines and food distribution centers in Taiwan.

General Mills, Inc. manufactures and markets branded and packaged consumer foods worldwide. The Company also supplies branded and unbranded food products to the foodservice and commercial baking industries.

Ajinomoto Co., Inc. produces and sells a variety of food products, including seasonings, edible oils, processed foods, beverages, and dairy products.  The Company also develops and manufactures pharmaceuticals, amino acids, and specialty chemicals.

Bunge Limited is a global agribusiness and food company. The Company buys, sells, stores, transports and processes oilseeds and grains to make protein meal for animal feed and edible oil products for commercial customers and consumers. Bunge also produces sugar and ethanol from sugarcane, mills wheat and corn, and sells fertilizer.

Hormel Foods Corporation manufactures and markets consumer-branded meat and food products.  The Company processes meat and poultry products and produces a variety of prepared foods.  Hormel markets its products around the world under a variety of branded names.

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities and products. The Company processes oilseeds, corn, milo, oats, barley, peanuts, and wheat. Archer-Daniels-Midland also processes produce products which have primarily two end uses including food or feed ingredients.

McCormick & Company, Inc. manufactures, markets, and distributes flavor products (including spices, herbs, extracts, seasonings and flavorings) and other specialty food products to the food industry. The Company sells to retail stores, food manufacturers, and food service businesses.

Nestle India Ltd. manufactures brand name milk products and other food products. The Company's products include Everyday dairy whitener, milk powder and ghee, Milkmaid sweetened condensed milk and Cerelac weaning foods. Nestle's beverages include Nescafe and Sunrise coffee and Nesfit enriched glucose powder. Nestle also manufactures Maggi noodles, soups and sauces.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nestle India (NEST IN)

India Channel Insight #35 | ITC, Britannia, Nestle India, Dabur, Marico

This channel insight shares key takeaways from speaking to channels across north India that are associated with ITC, Britannia, Nestle India,...

Pranav Bhavsar

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors Should Replace Dr. Reddy; Hindalco Is Close

Tata Motors should replace Dr Reddy at the June rebalance. Hindalco is an alternate add on sector balance. Passives will need to trade 4-7 days of...

Brian Freitas

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview (June): Down to the Wire

Tata Motors could replace Dr Reddy in the Sensex at the June rebalance. Hindalco is a close add while Nestle is a close delete. The inclusion of...

Brian Freitas

Adani Wilmar IPO Trading - Listing Sentiment Isn’t the Greatest

Adani Wilmar (6596700Z IN) raised around US$500m in its India IPO. In this note we will talk about the subscription levels and trading dynamics.

Clarence Chu

Adani Wilmar IPO - Has the Capabilities to Thrive but Needs to Prove Itself to Trade Higher

Adani Wilmar is looking to raise up to US$482m in its India IPO. In this note, we will look at updates since our last note, undertake a peer...

Clarence Chu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)