Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Late last evening, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> announced a definitive agreement where Rio will acquire Arcadium for US$5.85/share in cash.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a> closed nearly 31% higher at US$5.55/share and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> should follow when the stock opens.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> could move around 40% higher today to catch up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a> - that would still leave a 5.4% spread to the offer price.</li>
</ul>


Late last evening, Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) and Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) announced a definitive agreement where Rio will acquire Arcadium for US$5.85/share in cash.

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) closed nearly 31% higher at US$5.55/share and Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) should follow when the stock opens.

Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) could move around 40% higher today to catch up with Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) - that would still leave a 5.4% spread to the offer price.


Rio Tinto Goes All-In for Arcadium Lithium

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>On October 9, Rio Tinto agreed to acquire Arcadium Lithium through a Jersey scheme of arrangement for $5.85/share, a 90% premium, valuing Arcadium’s diluted share capital at $6.7 billion.</li>
<li>As of October 4, Arcadium shares on the NYSE had fallen by approximately 54.1% since listing. Rio Tinto is taking advantage of low lithium prices to acquire high-quality lithium assets.</li>
<li>The offer price is generous: 17.3x 25e EBITDA vs. closest comparable Albemarle Corp (ALB US) at 12.2x 25e EBITDA. Gross spread is 5.1%. I set my PT at $5.85. Long.</li>
</ul>


On October 9, Rio Tinto agreed to acquire Arcadium Lithium through a Jersey scheme of arrangement for $5.85/share, a 90% premium, valuing Arcadium’s diluted share capital at $6.7 billion.
As of October 4, Arcadium shares on the NYSE had fallen by approximately 54.1% since listing. Rio Tinto is taking advantage of low lithium prices to acquire high-quality lithium assets.
The offer price is generous: 17.3x 25e EBITDA vs. closest comparable Albemarle Corp (ALB US) at 12.2x 25e EBITDA. Gross spread is 5.1%. I set my PT at $5.85. Long.


ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ)</a> provides a well-rounded exposure to gold and copper, where it has significant expansion plans in place for both metals through developing new assets. </li>
<li>The company has exposure to the EV battery ecosystem through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-battery-materials-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36864:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Battery Materials,</a> which has one of the world's largest nickel deposits at its SCM mine, developed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto.</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-battery-materials-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36864:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Battery Materials</a> is developing multiple HPAL processing plants in partnership with leading battery material companies. Valuations for FY2025E and FY2026E look interesting as new projects start to kick in. </li>
</ul>



Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ) provides a well-rounded exposure to gold and copper, where it has significant expansion plans in place for both metals through developing new assets. 
The company has exposure to the EV battery ecosystem through Merdeka Battery Materials, which has one of the world's largest nickel deposits at its SCM mine, developed by Rio Tinto.


Merdeka Battery Materials is developing multiple HPAL processing plants in partnership with leading battery material companies. Valuations for FY2025E and FY2026E look interesting as new projects start to kick in. 


Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ) - Fully Charged Commodity Play

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

<ul><li>Arcadia's share price soared by 47% following news of potential deal with Rio Tinto</li><li>Rio Tinto confirmed talks with Arcadia for a deal worth $4-6 billion, causing speculation and excitement in the market</li><li>Arcadia, with ten operating sites and diverse lithium operations, is a key player in the lithium industry with significant growth potential.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Arcadia's share price soared by 47% following news of potential deal with Rio TintoRio Tinto confirmed talks with Arcadia for a deal worth $4-6 billion, causing speculation and excitement in the marketArcadia, with ten operating sites and diverse lithium operations, is a key player in the lithium industry with significant growth potential.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

A Message to Rio from an Arcadium Shareholder

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>In response to media reports, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> confirmed receiving a non-binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>. No terms were disclosed.</li>
<li>According to press reports, Rio aims to acquire Arcadium at a valuation range of US$4-6 billion (A$5.9-8.8 billion). Blackwattle thinks a fair price is closer to US$8 billion. </li>
<li>The rumoured valuation range is unattractive and arguably a bear case valuation assuming no significant recovery in lithium prices.  </li>
</ul>


In response to media reports, Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) confirmed receiving a non-binding proposal from Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). No terms were disclosed.
According to press reports, Rio aims to acquire Arcadium at a valuation range of US$4-6 billion (A$5.9-8.8 billion). Blackwattle thinks a fair price is closer to US$8 billion. 
The rumoured valuation range is unattractive and arguably a bear case valuation assuming no significant recovery in lithium prices.  


Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio Tinto’s Rumoured Bid Is Light

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Rio Tinto Goes All-In for Arcadium Lithium

Rio Tinto and Arcadium Lithium have announced a definitive agreement where Rio will acquire Arcadium for US$5.85/share in cash. There were a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Rio to Fully Pay for Arcadium Lithium

Rio Tinto to acquire Arcadium Lithium for $5.85/share at a 90% premium, taking advantage of low lithium prices for high-quality assets.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ) - Fully Charged Commodity Play

Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ) provides a well-rounded exposure to gold and copper, where it has significant expansion plans in place for both...

Angus Mackintosh

A Message to Rio from an Arcadium Shareholder

Arcadium's share price spiked 47% on rumors of Rio Tinto bid, shareholder expressing concerns over undervaluation, company focusing on growth...

Money of Mine

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio Tinto’s Rumoured Bid Is Light

The rumoured valuation range is unattractive and arguably a bear case valuation assuming no significant recovery in lithium prices.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Rio Tinto Goes All-In for Arcadium Lithium

Rio Tinto and Arcadium Lithium have announced a definitive agreement where Rio will acquire Arcadium for US$5.85/share in cash. There were a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Rio to Fully Pay for Arcadium Lithium

​Rio Tinto to acquire Arcadium Lithium for $5.85/share at a 90% premium, taking advantage of low lithium prices for high-quality assets.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ) - Fully Charged Commodity Play

Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ) provides a well-rounded exposure to gold and copper, where it has significant expansion plans in place for both...

Angus Mackintosh

A Message to Rio from an Arcadium Shareholder

Arcadium's share price spiked 47% on rumors of Rio Tinto bid, shareholder expressing concerns over undervaluation, company focusing on growth...

Money of Mine

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio Tinto’s Rumoured Bid Is Light

The rumoured valuation range is unattractive and arguably a bear case valuation assuming no significant recovery in lithium prices.

Arun George

Rio Tinto to acquire Arcadium Lithium for $5.85/share at a 90% premium, taking advantage of low lithium prices for high-quality assets.