European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 47.3%; GBL, 34.8%; Heineken Holdings 21.6%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 17.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 34.9%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.5%.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Porsche SE, Rio Tinto (DLC).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market.
Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 47.3%; GBL, 34.8%; Heineken Holdings 21.6%; Industrivärden C, 9.8%; Investor B, 17.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 34.9%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 8.5%.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Porsche SE, Rio Tinto (DLC).


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: September ‘22 Report

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-17/oz-minerals-said-to-hold-out-for-a-10-billion-in-potential-sale?leadSource=uverify%20wall" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> has been considering raising its bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>. OZ is pushing BHP to increase its offer to A$30. </li>
<li>The OZ Board has a strong justification for a higher offer as BHP’s acquisition of OZ would tick the boxes of future-facing commodities and potential operational synergies.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> recently increased its bid to minority shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/turquoise-hill-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25405:1" rel="noopener">Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ CN)</a>. This increases the probability that BHP will return with a sweetened offer.</li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reported that BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) has been considering raising its bid for OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU). OZ is pushing BHP to increase its offer to A$30. 
The OZ Board has a strong justification for a higher offer as BHP’s acquisition of OZ would tick the boxes of future-facing commodities and potential operational synergies.

Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) recently increased its bid to minority shareholders of Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ CN). This increases the probability that BHP will return with a sweetened offer.


OZ Minerals Could Get an Improved Offer from BHP

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Atlas Arteria (ALX) aims to raise around US$2bn (A$3bn) via a non-renounceable entitlement offer to fund the purchase of its majority interest in Chicago Skyway.</li>
<li>Over the past few months, ALX has garnered interest from IFM which has increased its stake to 19.99%. IFM had publicly opposed this acquisition.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamic and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Atlas Arteria (ALX) aims to raise around US$2bn (A$3bn) via a non-renounceable entitlement offer to fund the purchase of its majority interest in Chicago Skyway.
Over the past few months, ALX has garnered interest from IFM which has increased its stake to 19.99%. IFM had publicly opposed this acquisition.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamic and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Atlas Arteria Placement - How to Lose Friends and Alienate Your Largest Shareholder

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened or stayed at the same level during August/beginning of September, in line with the loses in the main indexes.</li>
<li>Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 46.1%; GBL, 34.1%; Heineken Holdings 21.3%; Industrivärden C, 10.1%; Investor B, 18.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 29.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 14.5%.</li>
<li>Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Porsche, Rio Tinto (DLC).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened or stayed at the same level during August/beginning of September, in line with the loses in the main indexes.
Discounts to NAV (5 September): Alba, 46.1%; GBL, 34.1%; Heineken Holdings 21.3%; Industrivärden C, 10.1%; Investor B, 18.9%; Porsche Automobile Holding 29.4%. The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 14.5%.
Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short-term recoveries provide opportunities on tightening discounts. Recommended trades are: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Porsche, Rio Tinto (DLC).


Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: August ‘22 Report

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Over the last two months, the two largest commodity behemoths have been trying to acquire copper deposits on the cheap. Both have been rebuffed.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>  has raised its original 34 CAD bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/turquoise-hill-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25405:1" rel="noopener">Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ CN)</a> twice, but large minority shareholders have voiced opposition.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> has offered to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> but has equally been rebuffed by management. Let the copper M&amp;A Wave begin!</li>
</ul>


Over the last two months, the two largest commodity behemoths have been trying to acquire copper deposits on the cheap. Both have been rebuffed.

Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)  has raised its original 34 CAD bid for Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ CN) twice, but large minority shareholders have voiced opposition.

BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) has offered to buy OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) but has equally been rebuffed by management. Let the copper M&amp;A Wave begin!


Los Andes Copper: The Copper M&A Wave Has Started + Chilean Population Rejects New Constitution

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: September ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during September as a result of the bear market. Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

OZ Minerals Could Get an Improved Offer from BHP

Bloomberg reported that BHP has been considering raising its bid. The OZ Board has a strong justification for a higher offer. The shares are...

Arun George

Atlas Arteria Placement - How to Lose Friends and Alienate Your Largest Shareholder

Atlas Arteria (ALX) aims to raise around US$2bn (A$3bn) via a non-renounceable entitlement offer to fund the purchase of its majority interest in...

Sumeet Singh

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: August ‘22 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened or stayed at the same level during August/beginning of September, in line with the loses in...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Los Andes Copper: The Copper M&A Wave Has Started + Chilean Population Rejects New Constitution

Both Rio Tinto and BHP have been rebuffed by management/minority shareholders as they try to scoop up copper assets on the cheap. Let the Copper...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

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52-week Range

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