Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Most companies have announced their final dividends for 2021 and most of those have announced ex-dates. Banks and oil companies have announced higher dividends than last year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> has not declared a dividend yet due to its IPO, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a>'s suspension could lead to index deletion in June or July. </li>
<li>Using current/proforma index compositions and conservative estimates for interim dividends, we estimate fair value at 240.73 DIPS for 2022. This is a sell at the last close or higher.</li>
</ul>


Most companies have announced their final dividends for 2021 and most of those have announced ex-dates. Banks and oil companies have announced higher dividends than last year.

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) has not declared a dividend yet due to its IPO, while Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)'s suspension could lead to index deletion in June or July. 
Using current/proforma index compositions and conservative estimates for interim dividends, we estimate fair value at 240.73 DIPS for 2022. This is a sell at the last close or higher.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Fair Value Update & CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com Adjustments

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 136 stocks over the last week.</li>
<li>Average A/H premium was 4.7ppt lower last week, led by consumer discretionary, material and healthcare. </li>
<li>37 stocks reached 52 week high last week but most have retreated since, representing arb opportunities in volatile market. </li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 136 stocks over the last week.
Average A/H premium was 4.7ppt lower last week, led by consumer discretionary, material and healthcare. 
37 stocks reached 52 week high last week but most have retreated since, representing arb opportunities in volatile market. 


A/H Premium Weekly: Arb Opportunities Last Week

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>Early reports of Tesla's "strong" Feb "sales" left out critical data, 
</li>
<li>Like Model 3 deliveries sunk like an anchor, as I expected, and Model Y pace may already be slowing. </li>
<li>
Critical March is now hit with a major Covid outbreak—and lockdowns.</li>
</ul>


Early reports of Tesla's "strong" Feb "sales" left out critical data, 

Like Model 3 deliveries sunk like an anchor, as I expected, and Model Y pace may already be slowing. 

Critical March is now hit with a major Covid outbreak—and lockdowns.


Tesla China Deliveries: Weaker And More Important Than You Think

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 136 stocks over the last week.</li>
<li>A/H premium increase was led by consumer Staples and consumer discretionary and industrials sectors.</li>
<li>We highlight A/H premium at 52 week peak: BYD, Xinjiang Gold Wind, Ganfeng Lithium. </li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A/H premium on 136 stocks over the last week.
A/H premium increase was led by consumer Staples and consumer discretionary and industrials sectors.
We highlight A/H premium at 52 week peak: BYD, Xinjiang Gold Wind, Ganfeng Lithium. 


A/H Premium Weekly: BYD, Xinjiang Gold Wind, Ganfeng Lithium

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance. The review period ends 31 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili (9626 HK)</a> is a close add while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a> is a close delete. Stock prices moves over the next 3 weeks will decide on the changes.</li>
<li>Passive HSCEI Index trackers will need to buy 1.74 days of ADV on Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and sell over 3 days of ADV on Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK).</li>
</ul>



Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) could replace Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the June rebalance. The review period ends 31 March.

Bilibili (9626 HK) is a close add while Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK) is a close delete. Stock prices moves over the next 3 weeks will decide on the changes.
Passive HSCEI Index trackers will need to buy 1.74 days of ADV on Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) and sell over 3 days of ADV on Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK).


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview (June): Great Wall Motor (2333) Should Replace Hansoh Pharma (3692)

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

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Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Fair Value Update & CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com Adjustments

We estimate a fair value of 240.73 DIPS for the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures after adjusting for CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com. We would be sellers of the...

Brian Freitas

A/H Premium Weekly: Arb Opportunities Last Week

We highlight average A/H premium was 4.7ppt lower last week, led by consumer discretionary, material and healthcare. 37 stocks reached 52w high...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tesla China Deliveries: Weaker And More Important Than You Think

Early reports of Tesla's "strong" Feb "sales" left out critical data, like Model 3 sunk like an anchor, as I expected, and Model Y pace may already...

Vicki Bryan

A/H Premium Weekly: BYD, Xinjiang Gold Wind, Ganfeng Lithium

We highlight A/H premium increase led by consumer Staples and consumer discretionary and industrials sectors, and stocks at 52 week high: BYD,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview (June): Great Wall Motor (2333) Should Replace Hansoh Pharma (3692)

Great Wall Motor (2333) should replace Hansoh Pharma (3692) in the HSCEI at the June rebalance. Bilibili is a close add in case Sunac is deleted....

Brian Freitas

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