Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty <ul>
<li>In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. </li>
<li>
Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…</li>
</ul>

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty 
In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. 

Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…


China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies, or unsustainable shifts in consumer behavior.  Though it is too soon to say for sure, what is happening, the warning signs are there.

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies, or unsustainable shifts in consumer behavior.  Though it is too soon to say for sure, what is happening, the warning signs are there.

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>China’s economic slowdown will continue to be a major cause for concern for the global economy.</li><li>Slowing economy together with declining with FX reserves could see RMB come under pressure.</li><li>RMB downside pressure to spillover into other emerging market currencies.</li></ul>

China’s economic slowdown will continue to be a major cause for concern for the global economy.Slowing economy together with declining with FX reserves could see RMB come under pressure.RMB downside pressure to spillover into other emerging market currencies.

<ol><li>Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official numbers indicate.</li><li>Large retailers appear to be suffering near zero growth across a variety of products.</li><li>Online retailing is still growing rapidly but its rate of growth is slowing and remains responsible for only 10.6% of spending.</li><li>Due to the weakness in large retailers and strong but small market share of online retailers, this leaves only small and medium size retailers as driving official retail sales numbers. We find this a dubious conclusion.</li><li>The combined retail sales and physical output of consumer product data implies that retail and consumer spending is growing much closer to the 3-6% range than the official 11% retail sales growth.</li><li>Related services like transport and hotel is showing significant weakness that is more reflective of an overall weak retail and services sector.</li></ol>

Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official numbers indicate.Large retailers appear to be suffering near zero growth across a variety of products.Online retailing is still growing rapidly but its rate of growth is slowing and remains responsible for only 10.6% of spending.Due to the weakness in large retailers and strong but small market share of online retailers, this leaves only small and medium size retailers as driving official retail sales numbers. We find this a dubious conclusion.The combined retail sales and physical output of consumer product data implies that retail and consumer spending is growing much closer to the 3-6% range than the official 11% retail sales growth.Related services like transport and hotel is showing significant weakness that is more reflective of an overall weak retail and services sector.

China

Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Company Ltd. manufactures spirits. The Company's products include white spirits, top-graded gifts liquor, and liquor for daily consumption.

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Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery A (002304 CH)

China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key...

David Riedel

The State of Online Retailing in China

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies,...

Christopher Balding

Marketnomix Country Insights - China

China’s economic slowdown will continue to be a major cause for concern for the global economy. Slowing economy together with declining with FX...

Rajan Govil

Retail and Consumer Activity in China

Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official...

Christopher Balding

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52-week Range

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