Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty <ul>
<li>In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. </li>
<li>
Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…</li>
</ul>

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty 
In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. 

Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…


China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies, or unsustainable shifts in consumer behavior.  Though it is too soon to say for sure, what is happening, the warning signs are there.

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies, or unsustainable shifts in consumer behavior.  Though it is too soon to say for sure, what is happening, the warning signs are there.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Kelusa Asia Focus Funds

Equity Bottom-Up

I'm forking a piece that i wrote less than 24 hours ago <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/geely-attacking-the-incumbent-another-suv-launch" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:3647">Geely Attacking the Incumbent - Another SUV Launch !!!</a> . 2 Launches in 3 months and now we got the April sales number which was up 11% YoY.  While this is not exactly a stellar number, as the seasonal sales drop was a little more than average, it reflects that the new Boyue NL3 SUV sales are going pretty well. They surpassed management expectations of 3000 units for April and came out with a number 33% higher at 4002 units. Below is a SEAG…

I'm forking a piece that i wrote less than 24 hours ago Geely Attacking the Incumbent - Another SUV Launch !!! . 2 Launches in 3 months and now we got the April sales number which was up 11% YoY.  While this is not exactly a stellar number, as the seasonal sales drop was a little more than average, it reflects that the new Boyue NL3 SUV sales are going pretty well. They surpassed management expectations of 3000 units for April and came out with a number 33% higher at 4002 units. Below is a SEAG…

Geely - April Sales Good Start for the SUV NL3

For Geely its 2 SUV launches in 3 months.I have forked my previous piece  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/geely-25-of-the-mkt-cap-in-cash-18-vol-growth-exciting-new-launch" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:3148">Geely - 25% of the Mkt Cap in Cash + 18% Vol Growth + Exciting New Launch</a>  where i talk about Geely launching the Boyue NL3 SUV on the 26th of March 2016 which was to compete head on with the H6. The management has targetted 20,000 of monthly sales for this SUV by the end of the year.Now we have another launch that just took place yesterday. The GS SUV was released yesterday. You can check the following link on Geely's…

For Geely its 2 SUV launches in 3 months.I have forked my previous piece  Geely - 25% of the Mkt Cap in Cash + 18% Vol Growth + Exciting New Launch  where i talk about Geely launching the Boyue NL3 SUV on the 26th of March 2016 which was to compete head on with the H6. The management has targetted 20,000 of monthly sales for this SUV by the end of the year.Now we have another launch that just took place yesterday. The GS SUV was released yesterday. You can check the following link on Geely's…

Geely Attacking the Incumbent - Another SUV Launch !!!

<ol><li>Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official numbers indicate.</li><li>Large retailers appear to be suffering near zero growth across a variety of products.</li><li>Online retailing is still growing rapidly but its rate of growth is slowing and remains responsible for only 10.6% of spending.</li><li>Due to the weakness in large retailers and strong but small market share of online retailers, this leaves only small and medium size retailers as driving official retail sales numbers. We find this a dubious conclusion.</li><li>The combined retail sales and physical output of consumer product data implies that retail and consumer spending is growing much closer to the 3-6% range than the official 11% retail sales growth.</li><li>Related services like transport and hotel is showing significant weakness that is more reflective of an overall weak retail and services sector.</li></ol>

Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official numbers indicate.Large retailers appear to be suffering near zero growth across a variety of products.Online retailing is still growing rapidly but its rate of growth is slowing and remains responsible for only 10.6% of spending.Due to the weakness in large retailers and strong but small market share of online retailers, this leaves only small and medium size retailers as driving official retail sales numbers. We find this a dubious conclusion.The combined retail sales and physical output of consumer product data implies that retail and consumer spending is growing much closer to the 3-6% range than the official 11% retail sales growth.Related services like transport and hotel is showing significant weakness that is more reflective of an overall weak retail and services sector.

Hong Kong

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

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Geely Auto (175 HK)

China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key...

David Riedel

The State of Online Retailing in China

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies,...

Christopher Balding

Geely - April Sales Good Start for the SUV NL3

I'm forking a piece that i wrote less than 24 hours ago Geely Attacking the Incumbent - Another SUV Launch !!! . 2 Launches in 3 months and now we...

Sameer Taneja

Geely Attacking the Incumbent - Another SUV Launch !!!

For Geely its 2 SUV launches in 3 months.I have forked my previous piece Geely - 25% of the Mkt Cap in Cash + 18% Vol Growth + Exciting New...

Sameer Taneja

Retail and Consumer Activity in China

Given the available data, we believe it indicates that Chinese consumer growth remains positive but significantly weaker than headline official...

Christopher Balding

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