Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Vedanta, Evergrande Auto, Cocokara, Leyou, Mitsu Lease/Hitachi Cap

China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>The recent performance of China auto shares has been sluggish. We believe the market is waiting for more data to confirm that the uptrend of auto sales would continue in 4Q2020 or not.</strong></p><p><strong>Latest data from CPCA  says China's auto retail sales growth accelerated to 12% yoy in second week of Sep from 1% yoy in first week of Sep, and forecasted an 18% yoy for third week of Sep. Interestingly,  CPCA has also conservatively forecasted a 8% yoy growth for entire Sep, which looks slightly disappointing. This might be holding investors back.</strong></p><p><strong>We also saw positive comments from local media's (CLS) interviews with auto sector experts on 22 Sep.  OEMs and dealers interviewed confirmed that passenger vehicle sector is further recovering and in restocking cycle. Auto components companies said their orders are getting better than in 2Q2020, which echoes the recovery comments from OEMs and dealers. </strong></p><p><strong>Our positive view on Geely remains intact. Geely's STAR Board IPO is going to be reviewed by NDRC on 28th Sep. Once approved, it's H-share should benefit from positive news flows.</strong></p>

The recent performance of China auto shares has been sluggish. We believe the market is waiting for more data to confirm that the uptrend of auto sales would continue in 4Q2020 or not.Latest data from CPCA  says China's auto retail sales growth accelerated to 12% yoy in second week of Sep from 1% yoy in first week of Sep, and forecasted an 18% yoy for third week of Sep. Interestingly,  CPCA has also conservatively forecasted a 8% yoy growth for entire Sep, which looks slightly disappointing. This might be holding investors back.We also saw positive comments from local media's (CLS) interviews with auto sector experts on 22 Sep.  OEMs and dealers interviewed confirmed that passenger vehicle sector is further recovering and in restocking cycle. Auto components companies said their orders are getting better than in 2Q2020, which echoes the recovery comments from OEMs and dealers. Our positive view on Geely remains intact. Geely's STAR Board IPO is going to be reviewed by NDRC on 28th Sep. Once approved, it's H-share should benefit from positive news flows.

China Auto: September Blues, but Recovery Thesis Intact

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>Three days after raising HK$4bn via a top-up placement, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-health-industry-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:713:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Auto (708 HK)</a> </strong>("EA") also officially known as <strong>China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group</strong> announces an intention to list on Shanghai's Sci-Tech Board (also know as the "STAR Market").</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on <strong>EA</strong> <em>and </em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">Asm Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a>, are at the top of the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Three days after raising HK$4bn via a top-up placement, Evergrande Auto (708 HK) ("EA") also officially known as China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group announces an intention to list on Shanghai's Sci-Tech Board (also know as the "STAR Market").



Preceding my comments on EA and Asm Pacific Technology (522 HK), are at the top of the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.





These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.




StubWorld: Evergrande Auto (708 HK) Tapping All & Sundry; ASM Pacific Going Private?

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p><br/> In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, regulatory and accounting developments, and the macro outlook. We also comment broadly on the H1/20 results of the Indonesian real estate players under our coverage.<br/><br/> The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. <br/></p>

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, regulatory and accounting developments, and the macro outlook. We also comment broadly on the H1/20 results of the Indonesian real estate players under our coverage.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Indonesian Property Update (2020) - Lucror Analytics

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK) </a>exhibits strong bullish underpinnings with 10.50 macro quad lows that form a base line and cleared wedge resistance in an impulsive manner. Buy volumes have been improving since June. Macro upside tied to the bullish MACD coil from the initial June breakout point.</p><p>Geely met our ideal buy target at 10.50 in early June outlined in our insight from April 2020 and cleared resistance at 13.00 and wedge resistance at 14.50 in an impulsive manner. 19.50 dual top represents the hurdle to clear to make headway.</p><p>Geely just broke out of wave 4 triangulation with near support at 16.50 with risk to the 16.00 zone that sets up a wave 5 rise.</p><p>Quad base line support and bullish MACD set up display macro bull potential.</p>

Geely Auto (175 HK) exhibits strong bullish underpinnings with 10.50 macro quad lows that form a base line and cleared wedge resistance in an impulsive manner. Buy volumes have been improving since June. Macro upside tied to the bullish MACD coil from the initial June breakout point.Geely met our ideal buy target at 10.50 in early June outlined in our insight from April 2020 and cleared resistance at 13.00 and wedge resistance at 14.50 in an impulsive manner. 19.50 dual top represents the hurdle to clear to make headway.Geely just broke out of wave 4 triangulation with near support at 16.50 with risk to the 16.00 zone that sets up a wave 5 rise.Quad base line support and bullish MACD set up display macro bull potential.

Hong Kong

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

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Geely Auto (175 HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Vedanta, Evergrande Auto, Cocokara, Leyou, Mitsu Lease/Hitachi Cap

Last Week in Event SPACE ... Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins. (This insight covers specific insights & comments...

David Blennerhassett

China Auto: September Blues, but Recovery Thesis Intact

We noticed recent market weakeness on

Victoria Li

StubWorld: Evergrande Auto (708 HK) Tapping All & Sundry; ASM Pacific Going Private?

This week in StubWorld ... Shareholders are the big loser as the US, UK and China turn HSBC Holdings (5 HK) into a political...

David Blennerhassett

Asia HY Monthly - Indonesian Property Update (2020) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Indonesian real estate sector, including the impact of the ongoing COVID-19...

Lucror Analytics

Geely Macro Bullish off Quad Lows

Geely Auto (175 HK) exhibits strong bullish underpinnings with 10.50 macro quad lows that form a base line and cleared wedge resistance in an...

Thomas Schroeder

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