Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-22-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28307:1" rel="noopener">BHARAT 22 ETF (ICICIB22 IN)</a> will rebalance on 17 March while the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> will rebalance on 29 March.</li>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the indices in March but there will be capping changes for the stocks and there is a reasonable impact on some stocks.</li>
<li>There are stocks that will have opposing flows on the two days, while there are some stocks that will have same way flows from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


The BHARAT 22 ETF (ICICIB22 IN) will rebalance on 17 March while the CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) will rebalance on 29 March.
There are no constituent changes for the indices in March but there will be capping changes for the stocks and there is a reasonable impact on some stocks.
There are stocks that will have opposing flows on the two days, while there are some stocks that will have same way flows from passive trackers.


CPSE / BHARAT22 / CNXBANK Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes in March

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india-lic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (LICI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-power-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15618:1" rel="noopener">Tata Power (TPWR IN)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-100-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36051:1" rel="noopener">Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nmdc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2016:1" rel="noopener">Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a> and there will be no replacement in the index.</li>
<li>The NMDC deletion along with capping changes means that there is decent volume (and ADV) to buy on quite a few names in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (LICI IN) and Tata Power (TPWR IN) will be added to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) and Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX). 

Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN) will be deleted from the CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and there will be no replacement in the index.
The NMDC deletion along with capping changes means that there is decent volume (and ADV) to buy on quite a few names in the CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN).


NIFTY100 & CPSE Index Rebalance: Some Big Changes in 3 Weeks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><ul><li>PGCIL: PGCIL’s asset capitalisation/Capex in Q4FY22 declined 75.5%YoY/44.0% YoY to ~INR21.8bn/INR18.1bn, on a high YoY base.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Hindustan Petroleum Corporation: Our ADD rating on Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) with a price target of INR 270 is premised on (1) recovery in domestic demand for petroleum products; (2) improvement in refining margins over the coming 18 months; and (3) gradual improvement in marketing margins for FY23-24 vis-à-vis FY22 levels.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Q4FY22 EBITDA, at INR 21bn, was 14% below our estimates, mainly due to higher other expenses; however, APAT of INR 18bn was 38% above estimates due to higher-than- expected other income and lower tax expenses.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

PGCIL: PGCIL’s asset capitalisation/Capex in Q4FY22 declined 75.5%YoY/44.0% YoY to ~INR21.8bn/INR18.1bn, on a high YoY base.Hindustan Petroleum Corporation: Our ADD rating on Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) with a price target of INR 270 is premised on (1) recovery in domestic demand for petroleum products; (2) improvement in refining margins over the coming 18 months; and (3) gradual improvement in marketing margins for FY23-24 vis-à-vis FY22 levels.Q4FY22 EBITDA, at INR 21bn, was 14% below our estimates, mainly due to higher other expenses; however, APAT of INR 18bn was 38% above estimates due to higher-than- expected other income and lower tax expenses.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: PGCIL, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation

<ul><li>PGCIL: PGCIL’s asset capitalisation/Capex in Q4FY22 declined 75.5%YoY/44.0% YoY to ~INR21.8bn/INR18.1bn, on a high YoY base.</li><li>Hindustan Petroleum Corporation: Our ADD rating on Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) with a price target of INR 270 is premised on (1) recovery in domestic demand for petroleum products; (2) improvement in refining margins over the coming 18 months; and (3) gradual improvement in marketing margins for FY23-24 vis-à-vis FY22 levels.</li><li>Q4FY22 EBITDA, at INR 21bn, was 14% below our estimates, mainly due to higher other expenses; however, APAT of INR 18bn was 38% above estimates due to higher-than-expected other income and lower tax expenses</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

PGCIL: PGCIL’s asset capitalisation/Capex in Q4FY22 declined 75.5%YoY/44.0% YoY to ~INR21.8bn/INR18.1bn, on a high YoY base.Hindustan Petroleum Corporation: Our ADD rating on Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) with a price target of INR 270 is premised on (1) recovery in domestic demand for petroleum products; (2) improvement in refining margins over the coming 18 months; and (3) gradual improvement in marketing margins for FY23-24 vis-à-vis FY22 levels.Q4FY22 EBITDA, at INR 21bn, was 14% below our estimates, mainly due to higher other expenses; however, APAT of INR 18bn was 38% above estimates due to higher-than-expected other income and lower tax expensesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily - PGCIL, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation

India

Power Grid Corporation of India Limited has been established by the Government of India as the central transmission utility of India. The mandate for the corporation is establishment and operation of EHV. AC & HVDC transmission lines, sub-stations, load dispatch centers and communications facilities throughout India.

Power Grid Corporation Of India (PWGR IN)

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Power Grid Corporation Of India (PWGR IN)

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

CPSE / BHARAT22 / CNXBANK Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes in March

There will be capping changes on the Bharat22, CPSE and NIFTYBANK indices in March. There are stocks that have opposite flows while some have same...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY100 & CPSE Index Rebalance: Some Big Changes in 3 Weeks

LIC and Tata Power will be added to the NIFTY100 Index at the close on 5 August. NMDC is being deleted from the NIFTY100 & CPSE indices. There is a...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: PGCIL, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation

PGCIL: PGCIL’s asset capitalisation/Capex in Q4FY22 declined 75.5%YoY/44.0% YoY to ~INR21.8bn/INR18.1bn, on a high YoY base.

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily - PGCIL, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation

PGCIL: PGCIL’s asset capitalisation/Capex in Q4FY22 declined 75.5%YoY/44.0% YoY to ~INR21.8bn/INR18.1bn, on a high YoY base.

HDFC Securities

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