Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Both TSMC and UMC saw about 20% cut in automotive industry wafer sales in 3Q23, which was 20% worse than customers' guidance.</li>
<li>Reasons for discrepancies: 1. IDMs cut foundry orders but keep in house utilization higher; 2. Worse than expected US auto factories strike; 3. Rate hike results in worse car sales.</li>
<li>We suggest clients to be cautious on the investment of automotive supply chain for the next 3-6 months</li>
</ul>


Both TSMC and UMC saw about 20% cut in automotive industry wafer sales in 3Q23, which was 20% worse than customers' guidance.
Reasons for discrepancies: 1. IDMs cut foundry orders but keep in house utilization higher; 2. Worse than expected US auto factories strike; 3. Rate hike results in worse car sales.
We suggest clients to be cautious on the investment of automotive supply chain for the next 3-6 months


Top Foundries See Cut in Automotive Industry Wafer Sales, Implications

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector</li>
<li>Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months</li>
<li>Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle</li>
</ul>


There are signs of a recovery in the chip sector
Memory spot prices are up, and revenues have risen for six consecutive months
Growth is higher than average, indicating the start of another super-cycle


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Global semi sales for April '24 were $46.4 billion,  +15.8% YoY &amp; +1.1% MoM</li>
<li>WSTS now forecasts a 16.1% increase in 2024 semi sales, up from 13.1% in their previous forecast</li>
<li>We think the WSTS forecast for Memory is too high &amp; their forecast for Logic is too low. Excluding memory, the WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Global semi sales for April '24 were $46.4 billion,  +15.8% YoY &amp; +1.1% MoM
WSTS now forecasts a 16.1% increase in 2024 semi sales, up from 13.1% in their previous forecast
We think the WSTS forecast for Memory is too high &amp; their forecast for Logic is too low. Excluding memory, the WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth in 2024.


Global Semi Sales YTD 2024 & Outlook: The Good & The Not So Good

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vanguard should declare to established 12" Fab in Singapore within 2014.</li>
<li>Vanguard is likely to announce the establishment of 2 sets of 12" fabs in the next 6 months.  </li>
<li>China is expanding 28/22nm and above technologies, and we believe it's more appropriate for Vanguard to compete with others rather than TSMC.</li>
</ul>


Vanguard should declare to established 12" Fab in Singapore within 2014.
Vanguard is likely to announce the establishment of 2 sets of 12" fabs in the next 6 months.  
China is expanding 28/22nm and above technologies, and we believe it's more appropriate for Vanguard to compete with others rather than TSMC.


Vanguard (5347.TT): Planning to Announce the Construction of a 12" Fab in Singapore in 2024.

United States

Analog Devices, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits used in analog and digital signal processing.  The Company's products are used in communications, computer, industrial, instrumentation, military/aerospace, automotive, and high-performance consumer electronics applications.  Analog Devices sells its products worldwide.

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Analog Devices (ADI US)

Top Foundries See Cut in Automotive Industry Wafer Sales, Implications

Top foundries see worse than expected automotive wafer sales, implying more automotive supply chain members are going to miss earnings expectation...

Andrew Lu

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Jim Handy

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Global Semi Sales YTD 2024 & Outlook: The Good & The Not So Good

Global semi sales for April '24 were $46.4 billion, +15.8% YoY & +1.1% MoM. Excluding memory, the latest WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth...

William Keating

Vanguard (5347.TT): Planning to Announce the Construction of a 12" Fab in Singapore in 2024.

Vanguard plans to establish two 12" fabs in Singapore in 2014 to compete with other companies in the expanding Chinese market.

Patrick Liao

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Top Foundries See Cut in Automotive Industry Wafer Sales, Implications

Top foundries see worse than expected automotive wafer sales, implying more automotive supply chain members are going to miss earnings expectation...

Andrew Lu

Are Semiconductors Finally Recovering?

​The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Jim Handy

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Global Semi Sales YTD 2024 & Outlook: The Good & The Not So Good

Global semi sales for April '24 were $46.4 billion, +15.8% YoY & +1.1% MoM. Excluding memory, the latest WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth...

William Keating

Vanguard (5347.TT): Planning to Announce the Construction of a 12" Fab in Singapore in 2024.

​Vanguard plans to establish two 12" fabs in Singapore in 2014 to compete with other companies in the expanding Chinese market.

Patrick Liao

The chip sector is beginning to recover with rising memory prices and six consecutive months of above-average revenue growth, suggesting the onset...

Vanguard plans to establish two 12" fabs in Singapore in 2014 to compete with other companies in the expanding Chinese market.