Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our measures of momentum and profitability suggest industry bottomed in Q1 2023</li>
<li>In addition, shares of container shipping stocks have stopped reacting to (plentiful) bad news</li>
<li>Outcome of ongoing rate negotiations and Q1 earnings calls will drive near-term performance</li>
</ul>


Our measures of momentum and profitability suggest industry bottomed in Q1 2023
In addition, shares of container shipping stocks have stopped reacting to (plentiful) bad news
Outcome of ongoing rate negotiations and Q1 earnings calls will drive near-term performance


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Container Shipping: Momentum Bottomed | Shares Stabilized | Focus on May News

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX  up +0.8%WoW but slipped -0.2% Friday as Hawkish Waller came out amid weak US March Retail Sales data;  Musk jump's into Generative AI; Boeing Production Woes</li>
<li>JAPAN.NKY Futs flat vs Cash USDJPY 133.8; Security Concerns ahead of by-elections as PM Kishida smoke Bombed;  Panasonic to build 3rd US batt plant; JT ramps up heated stick products</li>
<li>NUGGET. Elon Musk's aggressive push into Generative AI to rival/beat ChatGPT; A boon for NDVIDIA and by extension, Japan's Advantest(6857)</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX  up +0.8%WoW but slipped -0.2% Friday as Hawkish Waller came out amid weak US March Retail Sales data;  Musk jump's into Generative AI; Boeing Production Woes
JAPAN.NKY Futs flat vs Cash USDJPY 133.8; Security Concerns ahead of by-elections as PM Kishida smoke Bombed;  Panasonic to build 3rd US batt plant; JT ramps up heated stick products
NUGGET. Elon Musk's aggressive push into Generative AI to rival/beat ChatGPT; A boon for NDVIDIA and by extension, Japan's Advantest(6857)


Good Morning Japan| Recession Fears Spook Equities;NUGGET- Musk Jumps in AI Race, Boon for Advantest

<ul>
<li>Mitsui OSK is up 460% since June 2020. Almost gravity defying. Strong Container profits have lead to high dividends. Now Shareholders hang on for one more big payoff</li>
<li>Container rates have just about to reverted to pre-pandemic levels. Utilization is falling; Capacity coming on; Customers using spot. All points to potential losses next year for  Containers and ONE</li>
<li>We expect a major profit decline=&gt;div cut; How far could share price fall ? See the share price vs Shanghai Container Index correlation below.  We are bearish Mitsui OSK. </li>
</ul>


Mitsui OSK is up 460% since June 2020. Almost gravity defying. Strong Container profits have lead to high dividends. Now Shareholders hang on for one more big payoff
Container rates have just about to reverted to pre-pandemic levels. Utilization is falling; Capacity coming on; Customers using spot. All points to potential losses next year for  Containers and ONE
We expect a major profit decline=&gt;div cut; How far could share price fall ? See the share price vs Shanghai Container Index correlation below.  We are bearish Mitsui OSK. 


Mitsui OSK(9104): Ex-Div - The Last Straw...

<ul>
<li>After peaking in H122, container rates have tumbled back to pre-Covid levels in Q123</li>
<li>We believe core profitability has also declined to pre-Covid levels for some carriers</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a> no longer looks expensive, trading at 70-75% of replacement  cost.</li>
</ul>


After peaking in H122, container rates have tumbled back to pre-Covid levels in Q123
We believe core profitability has also declined to pre-Covid levels for some carriers

Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT) no longer looks expensive, trading at 70-75% of replacement  cost.


TRACKING TRAFFIC / Container Shipping: End of the Rollercoaster Ride

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Equities Sell-off on Pending Demise of Credit Suisse; Flight to Safety Trade resumes; SNB engineer Shotgun Wedding - deal closed with UBS $3.25 billion. The end of an era.</li>
<li>JAPAN. On Friday, NKY Futs -2.3% vs Cash as Contagion Fears around Credit Suisse prompted Flight to Safety; With CS Rescue, expect strong open; JP Shippers Container Profits looks shaky</li>
<li>NUGGET. As Mitsui OSK approaches ex-div, we think the share price will see headwinds given the expected earnings decline on ONE's earning collapse = (MUCH) lower dividends next year.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Equities Sell-off on Pending Demise of Credit Suisse; Flight to Safety Trade resumes; SNB engineer Shotgun Wedding - deal closed with UBS $3.25 billion. The end of an era.
JAPAN. On Friday, NKY Futs -2.3% vs Cash as Contagion Fears around Credit Suisse prompted Flight to Safety; With CS Rescue, expect strong open; JP Shippers Container Profits looks shaky
NUGGET. As Mitsui OSK approaches ex-div, we think the share price will see headwinds given the expected earnings decline on ONE's earning collapse = (MUCH) lower dividends next year.


Good Morning Japan |UBScs - Wedding Vows Sealed; NUGGET: MOL-Diversification Can't Come Fast Enough

Japan

Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha mainly provides marine transportation services and transportation management solution from international hub ports to both domestic and international ports. The Company operates container transportation, tramp and specialized carriers, and logistics and cruise lines. Nippon Yusen offers scheduled and unscheduled transportation services around the world.

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Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Container Shipping: Momentum Bottomed | Shares Stabilized | Focus on May News

Container shipping industry momentum bottomed in Q1, and related shares have stopped reacting to bad news. News and commentary from industry...

Tracking Traffic

Good Morning Japan| Recession Fears Spook Equities;NUGGET- Musk Jumps in AI Race, Boon for Advantest

Expect a broadly quiet start in Japan. Panasonic plans to establish its third US battery plant;. JT increasing its focus on heated stick products;...

Mark Chadwick

Mitsui OSK(9104): Ex-Div - The Last Straw...

We think that the current share price level of Mitsui OSK is the “last hurrah” after the company goes ex-dividend on March 30 when the company pays...

Mark Chadwick

TRACKING TRAFFIC / Container Shipping: End of the Rollercoaster Ride

For container rates and profitability, it's been a wild rollercoaster ride over the past three years. But now shares of pure play Evergreen Marine...

Tracking Traffic

Good Morning Japan |UBScs - Wedding Vows Sealed; NUGGET: MOL-Diversification Can't Come Fast Enough

CS is no more as UBS steps in with a rescue. Japanese markets are expected to open strong today following the UBS rescue of Credit Suisse + global...

Mark Chadwick

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