HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our list of HK-listed industrial companies indicated that the US generated an average of 22.9% of sales. With diversified production bases, higher tariffs may only affect ~10% of revenue.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chervon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35309:1" rel="noopener">Chervon Holdings (2285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> are more exposed given their significant US sales yet most production is still in China. </li>
<li>While the US generated over 50% of the revenue of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexteer-automotive-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15483:1" rel="noopener">Nexteer Automotive (1316 HK)</a>, they are less exposed given their worldwide manufacturing presence. </li>
</ul>


Our list of HK-listed industrial companies indicated that the US generated an average of 22.9% of sales. With diversified production bases, higher tariffs may only affect ~10% of revenue.

Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Holdings (2285 HK), and AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) are more exposed given their significant US sales yet most production is still in China. 
While the US generated over 50% of the revenue of Techtronic Industries (669 HK) and Nexteer Automotive (1316 HK), they are less exposed given their worldwide manufacturing presence. 


China & HK Strategy: Stocks Exposed to the US and Higher Tariffs

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.</li>
<li>Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.
Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.


Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hk-listed-apparel-footwear-screener-right-stocks-listed-in-the-wrong-market-attractive-yield-rapid-expansion-outside-china-sep-2024" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:158210" rel="noopener">HK-Listed Apparel &amp; Footwear Screener: Right Stocks Listed in the Wrong Market - Attractive Yield &amp; Rapid Expansion Outside China - Sep 2024</a>  helped us screen out great names.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jnby-design-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23642:1" rel="noopener">JNBY Design Ltd (3306 HK)</a>, an apparel retailer trading at 9.2x FY24 with a ~10% yield and a long-term track record of &gt;34% 10 Yr-average ROCEs, is one such name. </li>
<li>Even with modest single-digit growth guidance, we see a growing yield and a great cash buffer (20% of the market cap), and dividends are sustainable. </li>
</ul>



HK-Listed Apparel &amp; Footwear Screener: Right Stocks Listed in the Wrong Market - Attractive Yield &amp; Rapid Expansion Outside China - Sep 2024  helped us screen out great names.

JNBY Design Ltd (3306 HK), an apparel retailer trading at 9.2x FY24 with a ~10% yield and a long-term track record of &gt;34% 10 Yr-average ROCEs, is one such name. 
Even with modest single-digit growth guidance, we see a growing yield and a great cash buffer (20% of the market cap), and dividends are sustainable. 


JNBY (3306 HK): >34% ROCE Track Record/10% Dividend Yield/Net Cash Business

<ul>
<li>The HK market is moving, and the share prices of high-yield companies are increasing. Despite the average YTD returns of 36%, stocks are trading at 5-18% dividend yields. </li>
<li>We await the November results of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-textiles-holdings" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pacific Textiles (1382 HK)</a>, which we will soon initiate coverage on.</li>
<li>We note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yue-yuen-industrial-holdings-limited" target="_blank" rel="noopener">that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (551 HK)</a> continues with its buybacks, having repurchased 3.2 million shares (0.2% of outstanding shares) since August 28th, 2024. </li>
</ul>


The HK market is moving, and the share prices of high-yield companies are increasing. Despite the average YTD returns of 36%, stocks are trading at 5-18% dividend yields. 
We await the November results of Pacific Textiles (1382 HK), which we will soon initiate coverage on.
We note that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (551 HK) continues with its buybacks, having repurchased 3.2 million shares (0.2% of outstanding shares) since August 28th, 2024. 


HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener:  Attractive Yield & Rapid Expansion Outside China - Oct 2024

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>Asian ETF flows have been subdued during September as markets start to react positively to Fed rate cuts.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/las-vegas-sands-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:807:1" rel="noopener">Las Vegas Sands (LVS US)</a> continued to increase its stake as Macau tourists rise.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> is seeing increased China sales.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metallurgical-corporation-of-china-ltd-a8048a44-3f03-4836-916c-1596deef9535" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12762:1" rel="noopener">Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (1618 HK)</a> reported a decrease in new contracts for 1H24. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> early investor sold most of its remaining stake in the company.
</li>
</ul>


Asian ETF flows have been subdued during September as markets start to react positively to Fed rate cuts.

Sands China (1928 HK) parent Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) continued to increase its stake as Macau tourists rise.  Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) is seeing increased China sales.


Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (1618 HK) reported a decrease in new contracts for 1H24. Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) early investor sold most of its remaining stake in the company.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 20)

Hong Kong

Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets athletic, athletic style leisure, and casual and outdoor footwear.

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Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (551 HK)

China & HK Strategy: Stocks Exposed to the US and Higher Tariffs

US tariffs may only affect an average of ~10% revenue of HK-listed industrials on a net basis. Vesync, Chervon, and AAC Technologies look exposed...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI $ACWI and $SPX as they hold above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670; Buys in Services, Technology,...

Vermilion Research

JNBY (3306 HK): >34% ROCE Track Record/10% Dividend Yield/Net Cash Business

Insight highlights HK-listed apparel and footwear stocks with attractive yields and expansion outside China. JNBY Design Ltd (3306 HK) stands out...

Sameer Taneja

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener: Attractive Yield & Rapid Expansion Outside China - Oct 2024

We compile a list of ten high-yielding/net cash or low-net debt stocks in HK's apparel/footwear value chain. Despite the recent rally in HK,...

Sameer Taneja

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 20)

Sands China's parent increases its stake. Shenzhou is benefits from increased China sales from a health-conscious consumer. MCC new contracts...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China & HK Strategy: Stocks Exposed to the US and Higher Tariffs

​US tariffs may only affect an average of ~10% revenue of HK-listed industrials on a net basis. Vesync, Chervon, and AAC Technologies look exposed...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI $ACWI and $SPX as they hold above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670; Buys in Services, Technology,...

Vermilion Research

JNBY (3306 HK): >34% ROCE Track Record/10% Dividend Yield/Net Cash Business

Insight highlights HK-listed apparel and footwear stocks with attractive yields and expansion outside China. JNBY Design Ltd (3306 HK) stands out...

Sameer Taneja

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener: Attractive Yield & Rapid Expansion Outside China - Oct 2024

We compile a list of ten high-yielding/net cash or low-net debt stocks in HK's apparel/footwear value chain. Despite the recent rally in HK,...

Sameer Taneja

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 20)

Sands China's parent increases its stake. Shenzhou is benefits from increased China sales from a health-conscious consumer. MCC new contracts...

David Mudd

US tariffs may only affect an average of ~10% revenue of HK-listed industrials on a net basis. Vesync, Chervon, and AAC Technologies look exposed...