Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 10th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,487.9 million, led by financials, materials, and offset by industrials, health care, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Tourism Group Duty Free, Kweichow Moutai, Byd, China Merchants Bank, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial, Longi Green Energy Technology, Tongwei, Luxshare Precision Industry.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 10th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,487.9 million, led by financials, materials, and offset by industrials, health care, utilities.
We highlight flows for China Tourism Group Duty Free, Kweichow Moutai, Byd, China Merchants Bank, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial, Longi Green Energy Technology, Tongwei, Luxshare Precision Industry.


Northbound Flows (Mar 10th): CTG, Moutai, Byd, CMB, Yili, Longi Green Energy, Tongwei, Luxshare

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.9% as of Mar 3rd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.3ppt week on week, led by communication services, consumer discretionary, financials and offset by real estate, information technology, industrials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Xinjiang Goldwind, ZTE, China Southern, CRRC, GWM, China Telecom, CCCC, China Oilfield.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.9% as of Mar 3rd.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.3ppt week on week, led by communication services, consumer discretionary, financials and offset by real estate, information technology, industrials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Xinjiang Goldwind, ZTE, China Southern, CRRC, GWM, China Telecom, CCCC, China Oilfield.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 3rd): Xinjiang Goldwind, ZTE, China Southern, CRRC, GWM, China Telecom

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 109.6% as of Feb 17th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.3ppt week on week, led by consumer discretionary, health care, energy and offset by communication services, consumer staples, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Shenhua, PetroChina, GWM, First Tractor.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 109.6% as of Feb 17th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.3ppt week on week, led by consumer discretionary, health care, energy and offset by communication services, consumer staples, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Shenhua, PetroChina, GWM, First Tractor.


A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 17th): China Shenhua, PetroChina, GWM, First Tractor

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Owing to a weak but expected 4Q earnings, CTGDF’s recent share price has pulled back by 10%+ to its pre-reopening level.</li><li>While lockdown risk has already behind us, we again see buying opportunity when earnings momentum, in our view, troughed, and subsequently picks up within 1H23E.</li><li>Our call is further supported by channel check findings in which 1) YTD DF sales still tracking 20%+, 2) inelastic procurement demand from reseller given the prevailing logistic bottleneck and less favorable rebate policy with Korea DF, and 3) a very disciplined discount policy. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Owing to a weak but expected 4Q earnings, CTGDF’s recent share price has pulled back by 10%+ to its pre-reopening level.While lockdown risk has already behind us, we again see buying opportunity when earnings momentum, in our view, troughed, and subsequently picks up within 1H23E.Our call is further supported by channel check findings in which 1) YTD DF sales still tracking 20%+, 2) inelastic procurement demand from reseller given the prevailing logistic bottleneck and less favorable rebate policy with Korea DF, and 3) a very disciplined discount policy. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CTGDF (601888 CH) – Still the crown jewel among reopening plays

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s luxury market contracted 10% in 2022, ending a five-year streak of growth as Beijing’s “zero-Covid” policy and a slowing economy hit spending</li><li>Repeated Covid-related lockdowns starting in the second quarter curbed travel and consumption, with shopping mall traffic falling by 30% to 35%</li><li>Sales at Hainan’s duty-free shops operated by state-owned China Duty Free Group Co. Ltd. were expected to drop 30% to 35 billion yuan ($515 million) last year.</li></ul>

China’s luxury market contracted 10% in 2022, ending a five-year streak of growth as Beijing’s “zero-Covid” policy and a slowing economy hit spendingRepeated Covid-related lockdowns starting in the second quarter curbed travel and consumption, with shopping mall traffic falling by 30% to 35%Sales at Hainan’s duty-free shops operated by state-owned China Duty Free Group Co. Ltd. were expected to drop 30% to 35 billion yuan ($515 million) last year.

China’s Luxury Market Contracts for First Time in Five Years

China

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in sales of duty free goods and tax goods. The Company sells tobacco, wine and spirits, perfume, cosmetics, fashion and accessories, watches, jewelry, food, luggage products,and other products. China Tourism Group Duty Free also engages in investment and development of tourism destination commercial complexes.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

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China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

Northbound Flows (Mar 10th): CTG, Moutai, Byd, CMB, Yili, Longi Green Energy, Tongwei, Luxshare

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CTG, Moutai, Byd, CMB, Yili, Longi Green Energy,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 3rd): Xinjiang Goldwind, ZTE, China Southern, CRRC, GWM, China Telecom

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Xinjiang Goldwind, ZTE, China Southern, CRRC, GWM, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 17th): China Shenhua, PetroChina, GWM, First Tractor

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Shenhua, PetroChina, GWM, First Tractor

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CTGDF (601888 CH) – Still the crown jewel among reopening plays

Owing to a weak but expected 4Q earnings, CTGDF’s recent share price has pulled back by 10%+ to its pre-reopening level.

CMB International

China’s Luxury Market Contracts for First Time in Five Years

China’s luxury market contracted 10% in 2022, ending a five-year streak of growth as Beijing’s “zero-Covid” policy and a slowing economy hit spending

Caixin Global

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52-week Range

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