Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Downgrade recommendation to HOLD from BUY with a lower target price of Bt105 (Previous TP: Bt120). Our new target price reflects 2023 earnings downward revision by 12% to factored</li>
<li>3Q22 earnings fell both YoY and QoQ  Its net profit came out at Bt475m (-21%YoY, -36%QoQ). After earnings revision,the 9M22 result accounted for 75% of full-year net profit in 2022.</li>
<li>Revenue remained solid at Bt4.7bn (+19%YoY, -11%QoQ) supported by 1) an increase in sales of Carabao dang energy drinks by 19%YoY in domestic market</li>
</ul>


Downgrade recommendation to HOLD from BUY with a lower target price of Bt105 (Previous TP: Bt120). Our new target price reflects 2023 earnings downward revision by 12% to factored
3Q22 earnings fell both YoY and QoQ  Its net profit came out at Bt475m (-21%YoY, -36%QoQ). After earnings revision,the 9M22 result accounted for 75% of full-year net profit in 2022.
Revenue remained solid at Bt4.7bn (+19%YoY, -11%QoQ) supported by 1) an increase in sales of Carabao dang energy drinks by 19%YoY in domestic market


CBG : Weak Margin Pressured on 3Q22 Results

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We propose a new set of global plays in accordance with the de- globalization trend, shifting the allocation toward Asia-based companies with better growth prospects than those that generate the bulk of their revenue in Western markets.</li><li>Our recommended stocks are CBG and SCGP.</li><li><div><div><p>The global economy is less synchronized than in the past, meaning that a global plays strategy should be more area focused to enhance the growth potential.</p></div></div></li></ul></div></div></div></div>

We propose a new set of global plays in accordance with the de- globalization trend, shifting the allocation toward Asia-based companies with better growth prospects than those that generate the bulk of their revenue in Western markets.Our recommended stocks are CBG and SCGP.The global economy is less synchronized than in the past, meaning that a global plays strategy should be more area focused to enhance the growth potential.

Changing Landscape for Global Plays - Shifting the Allocation of Global Plays Toward Asia

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt120 (Previous TP: Bt125). We expect the company to report 3Q22 net profit at Bt615m (+2%YoY, -17%QoQ).</li>
<li>Expect weak CLMV sales to drag 3Q22 earnings   We expect 3Q22 net profit to be at Bt615m. Revenue in 3Q22 is expected at Bt4.7bn (+20%YoY, -10%QoQ)</li>
<li>Gross profit margin in 3Q22 is assumed to drop to 30.6% from 34.1% in 3Q21 and 30.8% in 2Q22. The YoY and QoQ</li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt120 (Previous TP: Bt125). We expect the company to report 3Q22 net profit at Bt615m (+2%YoY, -17%QoQ).
Expect weak CLMV sales to drag 3Q22 earnings   We expect 3Q22 net profit to be at Bt615m. Revenue in 3Q22 is expected at Bt4.7bn (+20%YoY, -10%QoQ)
Gross profit margin in 3Q22 is assumed to drop to 30.6% from 34.1% in 3Q21 and 30.8% in 2Q22. The YoY and QoQ


CBG : Expect Weak CLMV Sales to Drag 3Q22 Earnings

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt125. Management targets its branded own products GPM in 2H22 should improve slightly to 38%-40% from 38% in 2Q22</li>
<li>Positive catalyst from 5-6 new products launch in 2022 2Q22 energy drinks sales in UK market surged to Bt46m(+45%YoY)driven by a launch of new flavor (Mango)in new packaging (PET bottle).</li>
<li>The positive news from last week analyst meeting is an introduction of “Kanzou X2”in August 2022,the premium energy drinks with health benefits(liver nourishment)at a retail price of Bt15 per bottle.</li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt125. Management targets its branded own products GPM in 2H22 should improve slightly to 38%-40% from 38% in 2Q22
Positive catalyst from 5-6 new products launch in 2022 2Q22 energy drinks sales in UK market surged to Bt46m(+45%YoY)driven by a launch of new flavor (Mango)in new packaging (PET bottle).
The positive news from last week analyst meeting is an introduction of “Kanzou X2”in August 2022,the premium energy drinks with health benefits(liver nourishment)at a retail price of Bt15 per bottle.


<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt125. CBG’s 2Q22 net profit was at Bt742m (-23%YoY,+13%QoQ),the highest level in the past four-quarters, in-line with BB consensus estimated </li>
<li>2Q22 earnings hit four-quarter high GPM narrowing YoY and high base of revenue from Myanmar (-22%YoY) dragged 2Q22 earnings. The 1H22 result accounted for 46% of our 2022E.</li>
<li>The 2Q22 revenue rose to all-time-high of Bt5.2bn (+5%YoY, +10%QoQ), thanks to 1) a recovery in Cambodia sales (+7%YoY),2) an increase in sales of Carabao Dang energy drinks in Thailand</li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt125. CBG’s 2Q22 net profit was at Bt742m (-23%YoY,+13%QoQ),the highest level in the past four-quarters, in-line with BB consensus estimated 
2Q22 earnings hit four-quarter high GPM narrowing YoY and high base of revenue from Myanmar (-22%YoY) dragged 2Q22 earnings. The 1H22 result accounted for 46% of our 2022E.
The 2Q22 revenue rose to all-time-high of Bt5.2bn (+5%YoY, +10%QoQ), thanks to 1) a recovery in Cambodia sales (+7%YoY),2) an increase in sales of Carabao Dang energy drinks in Thailand


CBG : 2Q22 Earnings Hit Four-Quarter High

Thailand

Carabao Group PCL, through its subsidiary, manufactures and distributes energy drinks.

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Carabao Group (CBG TB)

CBG : Weak Margin Pressured on 3Q22 Results

Downgrade recommendation to HOLD from BUY with a lower target price of Bt105 (Previous TP: Bt120).Our new target price reflects 2023 earnings...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Changing Landscape for Global Plays - Shifting the Allocation of Global Plays Toward Asia

The global economy is less synchronized than in the past, meaning that a global plays strategy should be more area focused to enhance the growth...

Krungthai XSpring

CBG : Expect Weak CLMV Sales to Drag 3Q22 Earnings

Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt120 (Previous TP: Bt125). We expect the company to report 3Q22 net profit at Bt615m...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CBG : Waiting for GPM Recovery

Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt125. Management targets its branded own products GPM in 2H22 should improve slightly...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

CBG : 2Q22 Earnings Hit Four-Quarter High

Maintain BUY recommendation for CBG with a target price of Bt125. CBG’s 2Q22 net profit was at Bt742m (-23%YoY, +13%QoQ), the highest level in the...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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