Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Ominous start to the year for container shipping with Drewry forecasting container shipping profitability to deteriorate in 2016. Ocean freight rates for cargo moving under contracts on the major East-West trade routes witnessing another reduction in the last quarter of 2015, according to Drewry’s Benchmarking Club, a closed user group of multinational retailers and manufacturers who closely monitor their contract freight rates. The Drewry Benchmarking Club Contract Rate Index, based on Trans…

Ominous start to the year for container shipping with Drewry forecasting container shipping profitability to deteriorate in 2016. Ocean freight rates for cargo moving under contracts on the major East-West trade routes witnessing another reduction in the last quarter of 2015, according to Drewry’s Benchmarking Club, a closed user group of multinational retailers and manufacturers who closely monitor their contract freight rates. The Drewry Benchmarking Club Contract Rate Index, based on Trans…

2016 - Washout Year for Container Shipping

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Another report of potential suitors made it to market on Friday, forcing NOL to disclose there have been talks with French carrier CMA and global leader Maersk. NOL&rsquo;s shares rose some 6% to $1.05 and closer to book NAV per share around&nbsp;S$1.4 (and higher when the US dollar drifts higher). But what would make a potential transaction more interesting, if at all, keeping in mind the Hapag IPO pricing was about 25% below the original high end of the range?

Another report of potential suitors made it to market on Friday, forcing NOL to disclose there have been talks with French carrier CMA and global leader Maersk. NOL&rsquo;s shares rose some 6% to $1.05 and closer to book NAV per share around&nbsp;S$1.4 (and higher when the US dollar drifts higher). But what would make a potential transaction more interesting, if at all, keeping in mind the Hapag IPO pricing was about 25% below the original high end of the range?

NOL's Latest Potential Merger Discussions... Where is the [Partial] Exit for Temasek?

Special Situations, Content Strategist, Smartkarma

Crispin Francis

Special Situations, Content Strategist

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

<ul><li>Oil-capex has continued its&nbsp;slide. Meanwhile, there is increasing global overcapacity for rigs.</li><li>Brazil's orderbooks look&nbsp;risky. Could PBR's nationalisation be next?&nbsp;</li><li>To make matters worse, China's rigbuilders have grown to scale, and pose formidable threats.</li><li>This has played itself out in Sembcorp Marine's derate.</li><li>Last quarters results confirm that the horse which had earlier bolted, is not likely&nbsp;to return any time soon.</li><li>What really catches our eye however, is the relative valuation differential between SMM and SCI.&nbsp;</li><li>This is worth a careful examination. Could corporate action emerge next?&nbsp;</li></ul>

Oil-capex has continued its&nbsp;slide. Meanwhile, there is increasing global overcapacity for rigs.Brazil's orderbooks look&nbsp;risky. Could PBR's nationalisation be next?&nbsp;To make matters worse, China's rigbuilders have grown to scale, and pose formidable threats.This has played itself out in Sembcorp Marine's derate.Last quarters results confirm that the horse which had earlier bolted, is not likely&nbsp;to return any time soon.What really catches our eye however, is the relative valuation differential between SMM and SCI.&nbsp;This is worth a careful examination. Could corporate action emerge next?&nbsp;

The Contrarian Retort. Consider a Sembcorpian Bailout.

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

Sembcorp reported a dismayed third-quarter 2015 result as net profit and revenue declined 17% and 36% year on year, respectively, to SGD 247 million and SGD 3.6 billion.This was below our expectation and represented 52% and 66% of our initial full-year 2015 estimate.The bottom-line miss was largely driven by profit reversals on five of its delayed rigs, which led to a significant gross margin decline to 8% in the quarter (versus 17% in second-quarter 2015) and to the operating margin hitting an eight-year&nbsp; low of 6.6%.In light of increasing uncertainties surrounding the delayed rig orders amid persistent demand weakness, we cut our full year net income forecast to a 38% year-on-year decline (versus our old estimate of a 16% year-on-year decline) and cut our&nbsp;revenue growth forecast to&nbsp;a 14% year-on-year decline (versus our old estimate of a 4% year-on-year decline).We reduce our fair value estimate to SGD 2 (from SGD 2.8), while retaining our narrow moat rating, as Sembcorp&rsquo;s position as a superior supplier of complex rigs remains uncontested despite the market turmoil.Analyst: John Hu

Sembcorp reported a dismayed third-quarter 2015 result as net profit and revenue declined 17% and 36% year on year, respectively, to SGD 247 million and SGD 3.6 billion.This was below our expectation and represented 52% and 66% of our initial full-year 2015 estimate.The bottom-line miss was largely driven by profit reversals on five of its delayed rigs, which led to a significant gross margin decline to 8% in the quarter (versus 17% in second-quarter 2015) and to the operating margin hitting an eight-year&nbsp; low of 6.6%.In light of increasing uncertainties surrounding the delayed rig orders amid persistent demand weakness, we cut our full year net income forecast to a 38% year-on-year decline (versus our old estimate of a 16% year-on-year decline) and cut our&nbsp;revenue growth forecast to&nbsp;a 14% year-on-year decline (versus our old estimate of a 4% year-on-year decline).We reduce our fair value estimate to SGD 2 (from SGD 2.8), while retaining our narrow moat rating, as Sembcorp&rsquo;s position as a superior supplier of complex rigs remains uncontested despite the market turmoil.Analyst: John Hu

Sembcorp Reported Dismayed Q3 2015 Result Given Profit Reversals and Impairment, FVE Lowered

<ul><li>We lower our earnings forecast and fair value estimate on Keppel Corp as we scale back our expectations on the company's offshore and marine, or O&amp;M, segment activities amid project deferments which are likely to weigh on margins.</li><li>The company's nine months net profit and revenue declined 3% year on year and 17% year on year, respectively, to SGD 1.12 billion and SGD 7.8 billion.</li></ul>Analyst: John Hu

We lower our earnings forecast and fair value estimate on Keppel Corp as we scale back our expectations on the company's offshore and marine, or O&amp;M, segment activities amid project deferments which are likely to weigh on margins.The company's nine months net profit and revenue declined 3% year on year and 17% year on year, respectively, to SGD 1.12 billion and SGD 7.8 billion.Analyst: John Hu

This quality rig builder has pricing power, but low-cost competitors are gaining traction.

Singapore

Keppel Corporation Limited's core businesses are offshore and marine, infrastructure, property investment and development, telecommunications and transportation, energy, and engineering.

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Keppel Corp (KEP SP)

2016 - Washout Year for Container Shipping

Ominous start to the year for container shipping with Drewry forecasting container shipping profitability to deteriorate in 2016. Ocean freight...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

NOL's Latest Potential Merger Discussions... Where is the [Partial] Exit for Temasek?

Another report of potential suitors made it to market on Friday, forcing NOL to disclose there have been talks with French carrier CMA and global...

Charles De Trenck

The Contrarian Retort. Consider a Sembcorpian Bailout.

Oil-capex has continued its slide. Meanwhile, there is increasing global overcapacity for rigs. Brazil's orderbooks look risky. Could PBR's...

Crispin Francis

Sembcorp Reported Dismayed Q3 2015 Result Given Profit Reversals and Impairment, FVE Lowered

Sembcorp reported a dismayed third-quarter 2015 result as net profit and revenue declined 17% and 36% year on year, respectively, to SGD 247...

Morningstar, Inc.

This quality rig builder has pricing power, but low-cost competitors are gaining traction.

We lower our earnings forecast and fair value estimate on Keppel Corp as we scale back our expectations on the company's offshore and marine, or...

Morningstar, Inc.

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